海角大神

Amid extended ceasefire, Lebanon assesses high cost of Israel-Hezbollah war

Along Ain al-Mreisseh鈥檚 breezy waterfront avenue, which Beirut residents fill daily with walkers and runners breathing the fresh sea air, the neighborhood exudes a carefree confidence.

鈥淎ll the people here are friendly, and all are very calm. They walk their dogs and go to exercise,鈥� says Abdallah Mdeik, the manager of an old six-story building, half a block up from the water. 鈥淭his is the safest place in all Beirut.鈥�

Yet even as Lebanon welcomes the extension of a ceasefire that U.S. President Donald Trump announced late Thursday local time, the state of Mr. Mdeik鈥檚 building speaks to the heavy price the country has paid for this latest Israel-Hezbollah war.

The building is now partially in ruins after being struck by three Israeli missiles April 8 鈥� a day now called 鈥淏lack Wednesday.鈥� The attack ripped through the sense of calm and safety in this rarely targeted part of Beirut, as Israel鈥檚 campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah culminated in 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes across the country, leaving 357 people, civilians and combatants, dead.

The 26 people who died here 鈥� the attack took place without warning 鈥� included 12 children and seven women, says Mr. Mdeik. He points with lacerated hands to an interior door of the entryway, broken by the weight of his body thrown by the blast.

Israel鈥檚 target is unconfirmed; several 鈥済uests鈥� 鈥� a euphemism for Hezbollah members 鈥� apparently were staying in one apartment. Locals blame Hezbollah for moving operatives away from its strongholds in southern Beirut and south Lebanon 鈥� where the war has been most fierce 鈥� thereby endangering civilians in areas of relative safety.

The extension of a 10-day ceasefire Mr. Trump previously brokered, which he announced after Israeli and Lebanese diplomats met Thursday in Washington, gives Lebanon partial respite from the destructive 46-day war.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the three-week extension may lead to 鈥渨hat鈥檚 going to be permanent peace.鈥�

The Lebanon-Hormuz connection

The renewed conflict was triggered March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel in revenge for Israel鈥檚 assassination days earlier of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, the war here has raged in parallel with an unprecedented U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran aimed at hastening regime change by killing its leaders and destroying its military capabilities.

With the United States and Iran maneuvering for advantage in the vital Strait of Hormuz, amid tentative diplomatic moves to end the Iran war, Iran has demanded that any ceasefire deal include Lebanon.

鈥淭his [Lebanese] ceasefire exists only because Trump insisted that it be so, and it鈥檚 not even connected to the situation in Lebanon, really,鈥� says David Wood, the Beirut-based Lebanon analyst for the International Crisis Group.

鈥淧rimarily it鈥檚 connected to the situation in Iran,鈥� he says. 鈥淪o once Trump clocked on that continued fighting in Lebanon was jeopardizing his efforts to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, he decided to compel Israel to observe a ceasefire.鈥�

Hezbollah, meanwhile, is not party to the truce, and has rejected the first direct talks in decades between Lebanon and Israel, two rounds of which have now been held in Washington.

Mr. Trump said the U.S. 鈥渨ill work with Lebanon to help it protect itself鈥� against Hezbollah, and said Iran ending support for the Shiite militia was 鈥渘on-negotiable鈥� in any deal with Iran.

鈥淎ll Lebanese鈥� impacted

Throughout the ceasefire, Israel has continued strikes in southern Lebanon, citing self-defense. Even after the ceasefire extension announcement Thursday, both sides exchanged fire.

鈥淲hat has become clear is that, even though Israel says its only grievance is with Hezbollah, and it is only attacking Hezbollah, Israel鈥檚 military campaign is impacting all Lebanese,鈥� says Mr. Wood.

鈥淪ure, Lebanese Shiites are disproportionately paying the highest price, it鈥檚 their areas where Israel 鈥� is focusing this destructive, Gaza-like demolition of entire communities,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut this war is impacting the safety and future of all Lebanese people. April 8 was the most extreme manifestation of this.鈥�

Last August, the government in Beirut voted to disarm the powerful Shiite militant group, but has made limited progress. Prior to the latest conflict, the Lebanese army declared that Hezbollah had withdrawn from and been disarmed south of the Litani River, which for Israel demarcates what it considers a critical border buffer zone.

But Hezbollah has fought from there against the incursion of Israeli forces, which have now occupied a six-plus mile strip of Lebanese territory and imposed a self-declared 鈥測ellow line.鈥� Some of the 55 Lebanese villages in the zone are being systematically demolished with explosives, as Israel forbids residents to return.

Speaking Wednesday, before the ceasefire was extended, President Joseph Aoun told Lebanese security chiefs that the government would 鈥渞aid鈥� unauthorized weapons depots in Beirut and elsewhere.

Hezbollah鈥檚 eroded deterrence

Despite official efforts to disarm Hezbollah, Israel鈥檚 continued strikes and fresh occupation of Lebanese territory have given more weight to Hezbollah鈥檚 argument to keep its weapons.

But those weapons, which for decades were meant to deter Israel, have not prevented Israeli attacks on a militia it sees as threatening Israeli border communities, and with which it sees no chance for a negotiated peace.

鈥淭he Israeli war on Hezbollah has demolished the whole narrative of deterrence,鈥� says Makram Rabah, an assistant professor of history and archaeology at the American University of Beirut.

鈥淔or Israel, the south of Lebanon is a security and military challenge, and thus it is systematically destroying it,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f Hezbollah continues to play its game, the Israelis will respond with equal or more force. This is something the Lebanese need to understand.

鈥淐ertainly it鈥檚 a new level of destruction, and particularly the whole Wednesday [April 8] attack has solidified the idea that we are dealing with a different Israeli army, that has an intimate knowledge of the workings of Hezbollah,鈥� says Dr. Rabah. 鈥淲hile [Israel] has tried to keep the Lebanese out of the war, it鈥檚 virtually impossible to do this because innocent civilians are paying the price.鈥�

Among them are Lebanese displaced from the south, who once received support from a charity near the Corniche al-Mazraa neighborhood, in central Beirut. It was also targeted by the April 8 strikes, which left a large residential area destroyed.

On Thursday, young men cleared away scrap metal from concrete basements amid an acrid smell of burning left from the strike two weeks prior. Locals cited reports from Israel that it had targeted a half dozen Hezbollah commanders, meeting underground, and a store of cash. Damaged food tins point to a supply of relief goods.

鈥淚f there were weapons here, then Israel can come and hit it. But there was nothing here,鈥� says Mohammad Banjak, who owns an adjacent coffee shop and ran the charity鈥檚 distribution point.

鈥淚t should be safe here, all the residents are a mix of Shiites, Sunnis, 海角大神s, and Druze,鈥� he says. 鈥淓ven if there was something [a Hezbollah target] here, it was not as important as what [level of destruction] the Israelis did.鈥�

鈥淚 don鈥檛 expect peace at all鈥�

Echoing Hezbollah officials, he says he opposes talks between the Lebanese government and Israel.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 expect peace at all,鈥� he says of the ceasefire. 鈥淚srael is the reason for us to use guns and missiles, and to resist, because they target us. 鈥� Let Israel go out, and let us live our lives.鈥�

鈥淭he [Lebanese] president can鈥檛 do anything. They [Israelis] are speaking to the wrong people, not to the people with guns,鈥� says Mr. Banjak.

Lebanese authorities say the latest conflict has killed more than 2,450 people and displaced 1.2 million more. It comes long after a previous year of intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah 鈥� including the killing of Hezbollah鈥檚 top leadership and targeting of its missile arsenal 鈥� that ended in a fragile truce in November 2024.

Since then, Hezbollah secretly has rebuilt some of its military force, despite Israeli attempts to prevent it. And the latest round of fighting has highlighted the government鈥檚 challenge of disarming Hezbollah 鈥� while the majority of Lebanese are tired of being dragged repeatedly back to war, says the ICG鈥檚 Mr. Wood.

鈥淭he ceasefire hinges almost entirely on Trump鈥檚 attention to the matter, and Trump鈥檚 interest in maintaining it,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t places the Lebanese government in a difficult situation.

鈥淯ltimately, the fundamental conflict remains unresolved: Israel insists that it won鈥檛 stop its military operations in Lebanon, until Hezbollah fully disarms,鈥� says Mr. Wood. 鈥淎nd Hezbollah refuses to do this, and uses Israel鈥檚 continued operations as justification for not just maintaining its weapons, but for using them.鈥�