海角大神

Caught between unremitting attack and unyielding regime, Iranians try to cope

Every night, Iranian university student Alireza falls asleep staring at his mobile phone, desperate for news about how the joint U.S.-Israeli military onslaught is impacting his country and upending his life.

And almost every night, the computer science major has nightmares about the risks and uncertainties of a war that has pounded Iran with more than 15,000 airstrikes in 18 days, with no end in sight.

鈥淚 had imagined that the war might get this bad, but, honestly, I don鈥檛 see a bright future from it,鈥� says Alireza, who wears glasses and has short black hair, and asks that his real name not be used. After leaving his university in Tehran amid air bombardments with just a backpack, he sought sanctuary in his hometown in western Iran, which also has been targeted.

Like many Iranians, Alireza says he feels trapped between the dark shadow of the sudden, massive U.S.-Israeli military campaign 鈥� which aims to topple the Islamic Republic and destroy its military and security capabilities 鈥� and the grim reality of the regime itself. In January, government forces crushed nationwide protests by reportedly killing more than 7,000 Iranians, and possibly far more, and recently issued fresh shoot-to-kill orders to prevent any new unrest.

As Iranians prepare to mark the Persian new year, known as Nowruz, on Friday, a period that is normally rich with celebration, renewal, and family visits is being stained this year by a war far more destructive than anything Iranians imagined.

Ali Larijani killed

The crisis atmosphere escalated on Tuesday as Israel announced that its strikes had killed both Ali Larijani, the powerful head of Iran鈥檚 Supreme National Security Council, and Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the ideological Basij militia, whose uniformed and plainclothes forces were instrumental in the January crackdown.

The apparent bid to deepen Iran鈥檚 leadership vacuum also removed, in Mr. Larijani, one of the few top figures who could still balance hard-line and less-hard-line voices within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and among surviving senior politicians.

Mr. Larijani鈥檚 death was also seen as a blow to diplomatic chances of de-escalation, as it removes Iran鈥檚 last interlocutor with Gulf Arab states, which have been targeted repeatedly by Iranian retaliatory strikes.

Caught in the middle are Iranians such as Alireza, who by a significant majority oppose their repressive regime but are both terrified and alarmed by the scale of devastation wrought by the war.

鈥淭he idea that you can divide a city into 鈥榤ilitary areas鈥� and 鈥榬esidential areas鈥� is pure nonsense,鈥� he says.

Alireza recalls being arrested before the war with his girlfriend while they were driving, because her hair was not sufficiently covered. The pair were taken to Yousef Abad police station, where his parents were summoned, and security forces 鈥渉umiliated me in front of them for a long time.鈥�

鈥淣ow that [police] building has been completely destroyed. But the caf茅 where I used to go at night to drink tea was right next to it, and that鈥檚 destroyed, too,鈥� says Alireza. 鈥淭he kebab place where my girlfriend and I had dinner three days before the war has also been destroyed. So, I don鈥檛 know if I should be happy or sad.鈥�

He describes numerous examples of other civilian sites, restaurants, and residences, wrecked because of their proximity to regime targets.

Among them was an entire building that collapsed 200 yards away from where Alireza was last June, when Israel launched a surprise attack and triggered a 12-day war. A nuclear scientist, the apparent target, lived in that building, but Alireza saw dead civilian men, women, and children pulled from the rubble.

鈥淗eavy loss of life鈥�

鈥淭he heavy loss of life is alarming,鈥� said Vincent Cassard, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross delegation in Tehran, in a statement on Tuesday. 鈥淔amilies are gathering for funerals instead of [Nowruz] festivities.鈥�

President Donald Trump says the United States has eviscerated Iran鈥檚 military capacity, brought its retaliatory missile launches down by 90%, and lowered drone strikes by 95%. And the Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces are indicating no letup: 鈥淲e still have thousands of targets in Iran, and we are identifying new ones every day,鈥� IDF spokesman Effie Defrin said on Monday.

Iranian officials put the death toll at more than 1,400, without differentiating between security forces and civilians. Among them are 168 students and staff killed at a girls鈥� school in the southern city of Minab on Feb. 28.

鈥淗ow long are military infrastructure, transportation systems, roads, and oil depots going to keep getting hit? How can a country be rebuilt if it has no airports, no roads, no functioning police?鈥� Alireza asks.

鈥淚n what scenario is the government actually supposed to change?鈥� he adds.

Security forces loyal to the Islamic Republic are working overtime to prevent renewed street protests or uprisings by armed ethnic minorities such as Kurds or Balochs.

鈥淭he country is controlled by IRGC and intelligence service forces; they have always been in the shadows, and they are using all the power, all the brain they have, to play with us, play with the U.S.,鈥� an Iranian woman told the BBC in a voice message over the weekend.

鈥淭he only force and power is in the hands of IRGC and Basij. There are a lot of people without official clothing ... having guns,鈥� said the woman, a resident of Tehran. 鈥淪o, everything is going very dangerous here. We prefer to die from the bombs, instead of die by IRGC. And we know that the end might be very harmful, but we are in the most pressure you can imagine.鈥�

Iran鈥檚 warning to protesters

Indeed, Brig. Gen. Ahmad-Reza Radan, Iran鈥檚 police commander, warned last week that anyone who 鈥渇ollows the enemy鈥檚 request [to rise up], we will no longer treat them as protesters. They will be treated just like the enemy. Our forces are in a state of full alert, with fingers on the trigger.鈥�

President Trump and Israel鈥檚 prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have both called on Iranians to topple the regime. Armed Israeli drones began firing upon security force checkpoints in Tehran last week.

But Mr. Trump said on Monday he understood why Iranians had not yet risen up.

鈥淭he biggest problem that I see is that they put out a warning. ... Any protester that goes out onto the street will be immediately shot and killed,鈥� said Mr. Trump, noting that only security forces have weapons. 鈥淸Iranians] can be brave, but they鈥檙e not stupid.鈥�

Israel, for its part, assesses that Iranian protesters would 鈥済et slaughtered鈥� if they took to the streets, according to a State Department cable described by The Washington Post on Tuesday. Senior Israeli officials reportedly told U.S. diplomats that Iran鈥檚 regime is 鈥渘ot cracking鈥� and is willing to 鈥渇ight to the end.鈥�

In addition, amid reports that the CIA had been training and arming Iranian Kurdish militia groups based in Iraq, the IRGC on Tuesday declared a 鈥渟tate of war鈥� along the Iran-Iraqi Kurdistan border, banned movement, and issued shoot-to-kill orders.

With little sign of renewed street protests, one sociologist in Tehran 鈥� who is critical of the regime, and of the war 鈥� told the Financial Times that there is instead a growing 鈥渟ense of nationalism emerging from the war,鈥� a rally-around-the-flag effect, not unlike that witnessed after last June鈥檚 war.

鈥淭he fear of Iran鈥檚 destruction is increasingly uniting people as they fear the consequences of such a large-scale conflict,鈥� said the sociologist, who asked not to be named.

Concerns for the future

On a personal level, that means Iranians like student Alireza are daily weighing the cost of the conflict to their future.

鈥淭he hardest moment is when you look at things you once saved money for and bought with so much excitement, and, suddenly, they mean nothing, just because you can鈥檛 carry them in your backpack,鈥� he says.

鈥淐lothes you love, that camera you were so happy to buy ... your childhood photos 鈥� the silly collections you made, trying to give your life some meaning by gathering little things,鈥� he says, wistfully.

鈥淎ll of it suddenly feels worthless. You look at them, curse the people who caused this war, and then you leave them behind,鈥� says Alireza.

鈥淚鈥檇 like to quote a line from Hafez, the Iranian poet, because it describes exactly how I feel right now,鈥� he says: 鈥淔rom every direction where I went, naught increased to me save terror; beware of this desert, and of this endless path.鈥�

An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.