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Will Israeli success in Iran pave way to Gaza ceasefire?

Since the Israel-Iran war came to an abrupt halt last week, hopes have risen in Israel that the government may be ready to put an end to the war in Gaza, the longest conflagration in a century of Israeli-Palestinian hostilities.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post late Tuesday that Israel had 鈥渁greed to the necessary conditions to finalize鈥� a 60-day truce and urged Hamas to quickly do the same. 鈥淲e will work with all parties to end the War,鈥� he wrote.

Despite the diplomatic efforts, the fighting in Gaza continues unabated. Palestinians in Gaza are mourning the deaths of dozens of civilians at a beachfront caf茅; Israelis have been gathering at mourning houses to collectively grieve for eight freshly buried young soldiers killed in Hamas ambushes.

Israel鈥檚 success in Iran, where its planes met with no resistance on their bombing runs, has prompted growing numbers of Israelis to push for a truce in Gaza, and some even to dream of an overall Middle East peace settlement. Mr. Trump鈥檚 announcement of a potential ceasefire is a clear indication the Israeli government is under pressure from both within and without.

鈥淚n 12 days, we were able to have impressive, almost incomprehensible accomplishments in Iran,鈥� said actor Lior Ashkenazi at a weekly Saturday rally he emcees in support of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023.

鈥淗e who can make a ceasefire with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can reach a ceasefire in Gaza,鈥� Mr. Ashkenazi told the crowd. 鈥淭he majority are telling [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to end the war and make a ceasefire. What happened there needs to happen here 鈥� and now.鈥�

What does the White House think?

Mr. Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next Monday. His top adviser, Ron Dermer, was in Washington on Tuesday to prepare for the talks.

Thousands of Israelis gathered at the protest where Mr. Ashkenazi spoke, many greeting one another with hugs, relieved to meet after days spent sheltering from Iranian missiles. In Tel Aviv and other cities, volunteers and municipal workers have been clearing debris from buildings damaged in those missile attacks, which killed 28 Israelis and injured about 3,000.

Meanwhile, Israel鈥檚 chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, told Cabinet ministers earlier this week that he opposed expanding operations in Gaza, on the grounds they could endanger the remaining hostages, according to Israeli media reports.

Some others have their sights set on more ambitious goals.

Ilay David, whose brother Evyatar is among the remaining 50 hostages in Gaza, returned home from talks with White House officials with the impression that the U.S. administration believes it will be easier to reach a deal with Hamas, post Iran, and also has a regional peace deal in mind.

鈥淭hey didn鈥檛 say it directly to us,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut I inferred that, as part of their tremendous efforts to negotiate all over the Middle East and Africa.鈥�

Changing the Middle East map?

On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced that Israel was seeking to establish diplomatic ties with its historic enemy Syria, and with Lebanon. 鈥淲e have an interest in adding countries such as Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization, while safeguarding Israel鈥檚 essential and security interests,鈥� he said.

But he also said that Israel would not give up the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the Six-Day War in 1967 and later annexed. Syrian officials have signaled that would be a deal-breaker.

Washington is reportedly mediating those talks, in hopes they might one day lead to the more distant prospect of Israeli diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, the jewel in the crown of Mideast peace. That possibility may be emboldening Israel鈥檚 hard-line government to seek an end to the war in Gaza, despite opposition from its extremist wing, following the weakening of Iran.

鈥淚t feels as if Israel is capable of defending itself and it now has an advantage over regional actors, so psychologically the country is in a different place,鈥� says Tamar Herman, a senior research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank.

鈥淔or the last decade, the story [of the region] has been the Iranian-backed jihadist axis versus the moderate Sunni states ... and the best way to finish off this axis is to make sure these proxies are now part of your alliance,鈥� adds Gayil Talshir, who teaches politics at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

For reservist Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, founder of the hawkish think tank Israel Defense and Security Forum, it will take more than that to 鈥渇inish off鈥� Israel鈥檚 fiercest enemies. 鈥淚f we want the moderate axis to win, we will need to destroy Hamas,鈥� he says.

He argues that unless Hamas is eradicated, all the hostages are brought home, and there is no 鈥渢error army鈥� in Gaza, 鈥淎ll this talk of ending the war is not serious.鈥�

In any event, diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia remain elusive, since Riyadh has staunchly conditioned them on a pathway to Palestinian statehood. This is something Mr. Netanyahu has rejected.

鈥淏ut Netanyahu has to decide: Does he win his place in history or [risk] having to head to another election?鈥� wonders Dr. Talshir.