海角大神

Jordan in a bind: What to offer Trump instead of taking in Gaza refugees?

Across the Middle East, the art of the deal was hard to identify as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to torpedo a Gaza ceasefire he helped achieve even as he softened his strong-arming of one of America鈥檚 closest Arab allies.

The stakes were already high for the visit Tuesday by Jordan鈥檚 King Abdullah to the White House. President Trump has been publicly pressuring him to take in Palestinian refugees forcibly relocated from Gaza, which would threaten the stability of his nation.

As they met, King Abdullah expressed a 鈥減ersonal relationship of friendship and trust between the two of us,鈥� pledging to work with Mr. Trump to achieve regional peace. The president referred to the monarch as 鈥渁 great man.鈥�

Yet for a monarch all too accustomed to Middle East crises, the Oval Office meeting Tuesday was one of the most pivotal of his 25-year reign, despite the friendly overtones.

While they met, and following Mr. Trump鈥檚 lead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel was mobilizing its troops to resume war in Gaza. He said Israel would tear up the ceasefire if Hamas did not return hostages by Saturday, though he left vague how many he was referring to. On Monday, Hamas said it would delay the release of the hostages, alleging ceasefire violations by Israel.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump doubled down on his plan for America to take over a Gaza emptied of its population, a move condemned across the Arab world as ethnic cleansing and a war crime.

鈥淲e鈥檙e going to take it. We鈥檙e going to hold it. We鈥檙e going to cherish it,鈥� Mr. Trump said of Gaza.

King Abdullah had arrived in Washington with a mission: to get the president to walk back plans to relocate Gazans to Jordan and Egypt while keeping his kingdom鈥檚 strategic alliance with the United States intact.

Even before Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 threat to resume the war in Gaza, it was an uphill task.

The biggest challenge: an erratic and hard-to-read American president, who last week suddenly began pressing for U.S. 鈥渙wnership鈥� of Gaza and the permanent expulsion of Palestinians, which neither Egypt nor Jordan could accept.

Officials in Amman and Cairo have been at a loss on how to respond to the transactional president, namely: what to offer instead.

Jordan has taken on huge asks from the U.S. before: facilitate its disastrous invasion of Iraq, accept waves of Iraqi and Syrian refugees, lead the fight against the Islamic State, knock down Israel-bound Iranian rockets over its skies.

But the expulsion of Palestinians is one that King Abdullah can play no part in, not least because it would threaten the delicate demographic balance of his own country, stir popular outrage, and undermine national security. His foreign minister described such a prospect as a 鈥渟tate of war.鈥�

Instead of concessions, official sources say, the monarch came to the president bearing warnings: the mass transfer of Gazans to Egypt and Jordan would transform those countries into staging grounds for attacks, bringing the Gaza war to Israel鈥檚 eastern and southern borders.

Jordanian officials are relaying concerns that, should a mass relocation occur, Iran may target Jordan as a new base from which to wage proxy attacks on Israel.

In short, the move would make Israel less safe.

As a gesture, King Abdullah said his country was ready to take in 2,000 ill children from Gaza.

When聽reporters聽asked about his view of聽Mr. Trump鈥檚 ideas, King Abdullah said, 鈥淟et鈥檚 wait until the Egyptians鈥� present ideas following a planned Arab summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the end of the month.

鈥淲e have to look at the best interests of the United States, to the people in the region, and especially to my people in Jordan,鈥� he said. 聽

In a statement on the social platform X following the meeting, the king said he 鈥渞eiterated Jordan鈥檚 steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.鈥�

President Trump is not without leverage with Jordan 鈥� namely, $1.05 billion in annual support.

Mr. Trump demurred about withholding aid when asked by reporters Tuesday. 鈥淚 think we鈥檒l do something. I don鈥檛 have to threaten with money,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 do think we鈥檙e above that.鈥�

On Monday he mused about suspending an agreement signed by the Biden administration in 2023 committing the U.S. to more than $1 billion in annual assistance until 2029.

The cash-strapped, debt-laden, and resource-poor kingdom is reliant on U.S. assistance to help pay government and army salaries and provide services.

But even President Trump鈥檚 leverage has its limits. As one former Jordanian official told the Monitor, 鈥淢oney isn鈥檛 everything, and is nothing compared to an existential threat.鈥�

In his opening statement Tuesday, King Abdullah said of President Trump, 鈥淚 finally see somebody that can take us across the finish line to bring stability, peace, and prosperity to all of us in the region.鈥�

Yet by late Tuesday, that peace was brought to the precipice by presidential posturing.

It began with a verbal hand grenade lobbed by Mr. Trump Monday, decrying the staggered release of hostages under the painstakingly crafted Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement brokered by his own envoy along with Qatar, Egypt, and the outgoing Biden administration.

鈥淚f all of the hostages aren鈥檛 returned by Saturday at 12 o鈥檆lock ... I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,鈥� he told reporters.

Mr. Netanyahu, seizing on the president鈥檚 line, declared late Tuesday that his government officially demanded the same Saturday deadline.

鈥淚f Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end, and the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will return to intense fighting until Hamas is finally defeated,鈥� Mr. Netanyahu said in a video statement.

With war in Gaza threatening to start anew and Israel unwilling to commit to a 鈥渄ay-after鈥� plan, it appeared Tuesday as if President Trump had harmed the ceasefire he helped achieve and complicated his stated goal of the U.S. taking over Gaza.

It has left a region reeling from war, reeling from diplomatic whiplash.