海角大神

How a reformist connected with Iranians and inspired enough to vote

Enough Iranians overcame deep-seated antagonism toward the Islamic Republic to elect a reformist president July 5, disrupting years of blanket hard-line rule and sparking modest hopes, both of improved lives and of Iran re-engaging with the United States and the West.

Masoud Pezeshkian鈥檚 mantra to 鈥渟ave Iran,鈥� and to improve the economy by easing U.S.-led Western sanctions, elevated him above a field of hard-line and conservative candidates in the first round of voting June 28.

That was a definite snub to the regime, along with the lowest-ever turnout 鈥� just below 40% of 61 million eligible voters 鈥� since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

There had been widespread calls to boycott the vote in the wake of the months of protests triggered in September 2022 by the killing in custody of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, for allegedly showing too much hair. Still, some 10 million more Iranians decided to come to the ballot box for the run-off, decisively choosing the reformist heart surgeon over his hard-line opponent, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

鈥淭he reformist campaign was a very clear one: If, with Dr. Pezeshkian, a better situation is a possibility, then the deterioration of the situation under Mr. Jalili is a certainty. That was the formula they used,鈥� says Adnan Tabatabai, an Iran expert and founder of the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, in Bonn, Germany.

Dr. Pezeshkian tapped into an everyman persona, far from elitist circles and 鈥渧ery different from other [previous] reformist candidates,鈥� he says.

鈥淗e may be a heart surgeon 鈥� and of course is not a working-class person 鈥� but he has appeal among them,鈥� says Mr. Tabatabai, speaking from Tehran. 鈥淲hich is why [Dr. Pezeshkian], with his uncorrupt ways, and more relatable to the population, was able to awaken some significant parts of those who had decided to no longer participate in elections.鈥�

Two days before the vote, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif 鈥撀爓ho campaigned frequently for Dr. Pezeshkian 鈥� called on voters to 鈥渟end home those who have accomplished nothing for the country but sanctions, humiliation, and misery.鈥�

When the results were announced, Dr. Pezeshkian vowed to 鈥渦sher in a new chapter鈥� for Iran, despite an upcoming 鈥渢rial of hardships and challenges, simply to provide a prosperous life to our people.鈥�

The rushed election was held after the death in a May helicopter crash of President Ebrahim Raisi. The hard-line former prosecutor oversaw the brutal suppression of the women-led protests, which left more than 500 dead.

Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recognized the victory of Dr. Pezeshkian 鈥� the sole reformist candidate approved to run 鈥撀燼nd said he should 鈥渇ollow the path鈥� of Mr. Raisi.

Yet analysts note that hard-liners鈥� policies deeply damaged Iran鈥檚 economy, isolated Iran in the region 鈥� where Iran and its allied militias are locked in a fight with Israel and the U.S. 鈥� and led to an unprecedented chasm between legions of Iranians and their rulers.

鈥淲hat is really different this time around is that the overall situation has made clear: If you allow the most radical minds to govern the country in its entirety, the result will be catastrophic and get even worse,鈥� says one longtime observer in Tehran, who asked not to be further identified. 鈥淎nd that, obviously, is something that voters care about.鈥�

Overcoming a boycott campaign

Indeed, Dr. Pezeshkian鈥檚 campaign played on popular fear of Mr. Jalili and called on voters to 鈥渟ave Iran from Talibanism.鈥� Mr. Jalili鈥檚 campaign, in turn, portrayed Dr. Pezeshkian and his team as a 鈥渄angerous, pro-Western clan.鈥�

鈥淲e are losing our support in society, because of our behavior, high prices, our treatment of girls, and because we censor the internet,鈥� Dr. Pezeshkian said in one televised debate.

In previous elections, higher turnout has favored reformist candidates. And getting out the vote this time required Iranians to overcome a potent boycott campaign, spearheaded by families of those killed in protests. On social media, they accused reformists participating in the election of being 鈥渢raitors鈥� who were benefiting from the loss of their loved ones.

Fatemeh Heydari, for example, whose brother Javad was killed by security forces in Isfahan province, posted on X that only traitors 鈥渨ould urge votes for a bunch of thieves and murderers.鈥�

Yet among those voting was Amir, a businessman and hotelier from southern Iran, who says he felt 鈥渉opeless鈥� that his vote in the first round could stave off a hard-line victory, which he believed was baked into the system.

鈥�The country has changed in the last two years; it is unrecognizable,鈥� says Amir, who asked that only his first name be used.

鈥淟ots of people started making a distance between themselves and anything from the regime; they wanted to be far away from that,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 voted, [but] this was the first time that I didn鈥檛 talk to anybody about voting or not, before the election. I didn鈥檛 want to convince anyone to vote. In the past I used to talk to people, to call them.

鈥淭his is not the reformist we were looking for,鈥� says Amir, noting that Dr. Pezeshkian 鈥撀爑nlike the two other reformist presidents since 1997 鈥� is overtly religious and has often declared his allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei, who decides all key matters of state.

鈥淗e is the one who is not a thief鈥�

Still, one draw is the personal story of Dr. Pezeshkian, who was active as a doctor on the front lines of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. When his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident some 30 years ago, he did not remarry 鈥� a rarity in Iran 鈥� and raised three remaining children on his own.

He was health minister during the second term of reformist President Mohammad Khatami, and has been elected to Parliament five times. He won kudos in the first week of the Mahsa Amini protests, when he told state-run TV that he blamed regime behavior for making 鈥渙ur children ... hate our religion鈥� by trying to 鈥渋mplement religious faith through the use of force.鈥�

鈥淗is superpower is not being corrupt 鈥� people say that, among the other [candidates], he is the one who is not a thief,鈥� says Amir. 鈥淯niting is not his superpower. ... I myself don鈥檛 have big hopes.鈥�

Iranian presidents have limited scope of action, relative to the power of the supreme leader. Iran will continue close ties with Russia 鈥� which it has supplied with military drones to bombard Ukraine 鈥� and will keep backing Iran鈥檚 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� allies in their fight against Israeli and American interests.

But reformist presidents have set the tone domestically, raised hopes, and been given some leeway to conduct foreign policy 鈥� including clinching the 2015 nuclear deal with global powers, from which former President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.

Dr. Pezeshkian promised on the campaign trail to ease economic suffering, which necessarily means some lifting of Western sanctions.

鈥淒r. Pezeshkian will try, and will be a proponent of trying to ease tensions with the West, and I think he will also be allowed to do so,鈥� says Germany-based analyst Mr. Tabatabai. 鈥淲hen I say the West, it鈥檚 really the U.S.鈥�

An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.