海角大神

Why populist president retains support amid Tunisia鈥檚 enduring poverty

Kais Saied, the autocratic president who promised to succeed where Tunisia鈥檚 nascent democracy had failed, retains a hold on power and popular support even as the country enters a second year of record inflation, food shortages, and potential insolvency.

On the recent anniversary of the 2011 democratic revolution that Mr. Saied has all but snuffed out, several hundred members of the anti-coup National Front for Salvation and Islamist Ennahda protested in downtown Tunis, chanting, 鈥淲e will sacrifice our life for liberty,鈥� and 鈥淪tand together against populism and the return of dictatorship.鈥�

Yet few Tunisians have heeded their call.

Many are swayed by Mr. Saied鈥檚 use of the time-tested populist playbook of xenophobia and conspiracy theories, allowing him to divert the anger of a population worn down by 13 years of rotating governments, rising inflation, and poverty.

Their support for 鈥� or lack of opposition to 鈥� Mr. Saied continues to feed on a brimming well of bitterness and distrust over the failures of post-revolution democrats.

鈥淎 majority of Tunisians see politicians from the time after the revolution as crooks, traitors, and terrorists, and whatever Saied does looks better than what went before,鈥� says Youssef Cherif, director of Columbia Global Centers-Tunis.

鈥淲hich means people forget the economic problems under his rule, or they keep blaming those before him. They see the president as the only one who is trying to improve the country,鈥� he says.

Political apathy is rife in Tunisia, which also works to Mr. Saied鈥檚 advantage.

Barely 20% of eligible Tunisians turned out to vote on Mr. Saied鈥檚 bespoke constitution, which turned Tunisia into a quasi-autocracy with a strong presidency. It was approved by 96% of those who cast ballots in the July 2022 vote.

Last month, a record-low 11.6% of Tunisian voters participated in local elections under Mr. Saied鈥檚 new political system; the opposition characterized that turnout as an 鈥渙verwhelming rejection鈥� of his political project.

Populism鈥檚 pull

The pull of Mr. Saied鈥檚 populism and anger over Tunisia鈥檚 post-revolution era can be felt most acutely in Minhala, a low-income Tunis neighborhood of cinderblock houses sagging on a hillside of government-owned land.

It is a bellwether district practically in the president鈥檚 backyard.

The residents are transplants from Tunisia鈥檚 marginalized hinterlands who have migrated here over the past decade to escape drought and poverty and look for jobs in the capital.聽

These were the same disenfranchised Tunisians who rose up and started the revolution in 2010 which ousted the former dictator, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and sparked the Arab Spring.

Which may be why Mr. Saied frequently uses this neighborhood as a campaign stop for photo-ops, making grand promises and railing against post-revolution 鈥渢hieves.鈥�

Nothing much has changed here since his highly publicized visit last July, when he promised paved roads, jobs, and decent housing.

The jagged road running up the hill and the side roads are still dirt; patches of pavement with leftover cement from construction speak to residents鈥� attempts to fix them themselves.

Most houses remain without electricity and running water.

Residents still have to walk down to a dirty, plastic-bottle-littered stream twice a day to fetch water in buckets and soda bottles for use at home. Promised cash and food never materialized.

The people鈥檚 patience

The president鈥檚 standing nevertheless appears largely secure.

鈥淜ais Saied is someone who we can trust and is working against a corrupt system,鈥� Ahmed, a Saied supporter, says as he tends to his fig grove above the hilly neighborhood.聽鈥淪omeone who stands with the people and is for the people deserves all our patience and time.鈥�

Some weary residents, though, see Mr. Saied as another disappointment.

鈥淭he government and the state have let us down. They all lied, and Kais Saied is no different,鈥� says Bouthaina, pointing to her barrel of green-tinted stream water. 鈥淭hey are working against the people and leaving us to rot.鈥�

鈥淲e put our trust in Ennahda, then [the secular party] Nidaa, then Kais Saied, but the system continues to neglect us,鈥� says Um Khalid, a Minhala resident who says she cannot afford chicken or vegetables, tears welling in her eyes. 鈥淲hat do we do now? Are we entirely alone?鈥� she asks. 鈥淲e vote and everything gets worse.鈥�

Mr. Saied鈥檚 supporters are quick to remind Tunisians that the president has steered the nation through the pandemic, inflation, drought, and wheat shortages caused by Russia鈥檚 war on Ukraine.

鈥淭he president is facing unprecedented crises no Tunisian president has had to face,鈥� says Mahmoud Ben Mubarak, secretary-general of the pro-Saied political group July 25. 鈥淎ll the while we are battling the deep state,鈥� he adds, echoing Mr. Saied鈥檚 accusations that the Islamist party Ennahda is exacerbating food shortages and tanking the economy to 鈥渋ncite a revolt,鈥� even though its leaders have been jailed.

The pro-democracy opposition鈥檚 voice barely registers.

鈥淚t is on us as the opposition to provide clear alternative economic and national policies,鈥� says Nabil Hajji, secretary-general of Democratic Current, a party whose leadership has also been jailed. 鈥淲e are failing to provide an alternative vision for Tunisians.鈥�

鈥淗ope鈥� on the ballot in November

A glimmer of a hope for change could come in presidential elections next November, though Mr. Saied has banned international observers.

So far, his only challenger is Olfa Hamdi, a former CEO of Tunisia鈥檚 airline and founder of the secular democratic Third Republic Party.

In addition to vying to become Tunisia鈥檚 first female president, she is presenting an 鈥渁lternative vision鈥� to the xenophobic and autocratic Mr. Saied, running on a platform of 鈥渁n inclusive and sustainable democracy鈥� and 鈥渉ope, prosperity, and unity.鈥�

So far, many voters remain unconvinced.

鈥淲e need to give the president more time because he can鈥檛 reform what happened in 11 years in just two years,鈥� says Basma Ben Jedian, a nurse from southern Tunisia, pledging her vote for Mr. Saied.

鈥淓ven if there is a new president, he or she will be like the others and nothing will change,鈥� says Fraj Belkhiri, a 27-year-old sweets factory worker in Sfax. He views Mr. Saied as an 鈥渉onest man鈥� who has 鈥渟tood alone against a corrupt system.鈥�

鈥淭he president can only improve the situation,鈥� he believes, 鈥渋f he becomes a full dictator like Ben Ali.鈥�

Ahmed Ellali contributed to this report.