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President Erdo臒an leads Turkey鈥檚 election, headed into runoff

Turkey鈥檚 presidential elections are heading for a runoff. President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, who has ruled his country with a firm grip for 20 years, holds a momentary lead over his challenger but has fallen short of outright securing a third decade.

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Turkey鈥檚 presidential election will be decided in a runoff, election officials said Monday, after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an聽pulled ahead of his chief challenger, but fell short of an outright victory that would extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade.

The second-round vote scheduled for May 28 will determine whether the strategically located NATO country remains under the president鈥檚 firm grip or can embark on a more democratic course promised by his main rival, Kemal K谋l谋莽daro臒lu.

While Mr. Erdo臒an聽has governed for 20 years, opinion polls had suggested that his run could be coming to an end and that a cost-of-living crisis and criticism over the government鈥檚 response to a devastating February earthquake might redraw the electoral map.

Instead, Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽retreat was still less marked than predicted 鈥� and with his alliance retaining its hold on the parliament, he is now in a good position to win in the second round.

The uncertainty drove the main Turkish stock exchange BIST-100 more than 6% lower at the open Monday, prompting a temporary halt in trading. But shares recovered after trading resumed, and the index was 2.5% lower in the afternoon compared to the market close Friday.

Western nations and foreign investors were particularly interested in the outcome because of Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽unorthodox leadership of the economy and often mercurial but successful efforts to put Turkey at the center of many major diplomatic negotiations. At a crossroads between East and West, with a coast along the Black Sea and borders with Iran, Iraq, and Syria, Turkey has been a key player on issues including the war in Syria, migration flows to Europe, exports of Ukraine鈥檚 grain, and NATO鈥檚 expansion.

Preliminary results showed Mr. Erdo臒an聽won 49.5% of the vote, while Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu聽grabbed 44.9%, and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2%, according to Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Electoral Board.

The remaining uncounted votes were not enough to tip Mr. Erdo臒an聽into outright victory, even if they all broke for him, Mr. Yener said. In the last presidential election in 2018, Mr. Erdo臒an聽won in the first round, with more than 52% of the vote.

Even as it became clear a runoff was likely, Mr. Erdo臒an, who has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president since 2003, painted Sunday鈥檚 vote as a victory both for himself and the country.

鈥淭hat the election results have not been finalized doesn鈥檛 change the fact that the nation has chosen us,鈥� Mr. Erdo臒an聽told supporters in the early hours of Monday.

He said he would respect the nation鈥檚 decision.

Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu聽sounded hopeful, tweeting around the time the runoff was announced: 鈥淒on鈥檛 lose hope. ... We will get up and win this election together.鈥�

Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu聽and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since he took leadership in 2010 but increased their votes this time.

Right-wing candidate Mr. Ogan has not said whom he would endorse if the elections go to a second round. He is believed to have received support from nationalist electors wanting change after two decades under Mr. Erdo臒an聽but unconvinced by the K谋l谋莽daro臒lu-led six-party alliance鈥檚 ability to govern.

The election results showed that the alliance led by Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽ruling Justice and Development Party looked like it would keep its majority in the 600-seat parliament, although the assembly has lost much of its power after a referendum that gave the presidency additional legislative powers narrowly passed in 2017.

According to preliminary results, Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽AKP and its allies secured 321 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition won 213, and the 66 remaining went to a pro-Kurdish alliance.

Howard Eissenstat, an associate professor of Middle East history and politics at St. Lawrence University in New York, said those results would likely give Mr. Erdo臒an聽an advantage in an eventual runoff because voters would not want a 鈥渄ivided government.鈥�

As in previous years, Mr. Erdo臒an聽led a highly divisive campaign. He portrayed Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu, who had received the backing of the country鈥檚 pro-Kurdish party, for colluding with 鈥渢errorists鈥� and supporting what he called 鈥渄eviant鈥� LGBTQ+ rights. In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey鈥檚 homegrown defense industry and infrastructure projects.

Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu, for his part, campaigned on promises to reverse crackdowns on free speech and other forms of democratic backsliding, as well as to repair an economy battered by high inflation and currency devaluation.

But as the results came in, it appeared those elements didn鈥檛 shake up the electorate as expected: Turkey鈥檚 conservative heartland overwhelmingly voted for the ruling party, with Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu鈥檚聽main opposition winning most of the coastal provinces in the west and south. The pro-Kurdish Green Left Party, YSP, won the predominantly Kurdish provinces in the southeast.

Results reported by the state-run Anadolu Agency showed Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽party dominating in the earthquake-hit region, winning 10 out of 11 provinces in an area that has traditionally supported the president. That was despite criticism of a slow response by his government to the 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people.

Nearly 89% of eligible voters in Turkey cast a ballot, and over half of overseas voters went to the ballot box. Voter turnout in Turkey is traditionally strong, despite the government suppressing freedom of expression and assembly over the years and especially since a 2016 coup attempt.

Mr. Erdo臒an聽blamed the failed coup on followers of a former ally, cleric Fethullah Gulen, and initiated a large-scale crackdown on civil servants with alleged links to Gulen and on pro-Kurdish politicians.

Critics maintain the president鈥檚 heavy-handed style is responsible for a painful cost-of-living crisis. The latest official statistics put inflation at about 44%, down from a high of around 86%. The price of vegetables became a campaign issue for the opposition, which used an onion as a symbol.

This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP writers Zeynep Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul, and Cinar Kiper contributed from Bodrum, Turkey.