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Persian Gulf incidents spike, sending message from Iran hardliners

Threatening encounters between the US and Iran have risen recently in the Persian Gulf, with at least 32 reported so far this year, compared with 23 in all of 2015. 

Small Iranian fast-attack boats race toward American warships in the Persian Gulf, turning away at the last minute as warning shots are fired 鈥撀爅ust one of many recent incidents that are prompting hard-line Iranian media to crow that the US superpower has been 鈥渉umiliated, again.鈥�

In the latest episode last weekend, Iran warned two US Navy surveillance planes flying high at the edge of its territory that it would shoot them down if they entered Iranian airspace.

Iran and the US have been provoking each other militarily for more than 30 years,聽engaging in聽a volatile tug-of-war in the Persian Gulf, where one-third of the world鈥檚 seaborne oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz.聽

But threatening incidents have spiked recently, with at least 32 reported so far this year, compared with 23 in all of 2015. Gen. Joseph Votel, the head of US Central Command, said earlier this month that Iran鈥檚 moves are an attempt to 鈥渆xert their influence and authority in the region.鈥澛�

The US military says all recent incidents have occurred in international waters, and that聽such 鈥渉arassment鈥� from Iran is 鈥渦nsafe and unprofessional.鈥� Senior Iranian officers, meanwhile, downplay their actions as 鈥渞outine鈥� and defensive 鈥� but declare that a 鈥渟evere鈥� reaction will follow if they detect any aggressive US intent.

Analysts say the uptick sends two messages from Iran鈥檚聽more ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has been engaged in a struggle for influence with the centrist President Hassan Rouhani:聽First, that it will challenge its superpower enemy in its own backyard, even at the risk of escalation; and second, to remind Mr.聽Rouhani that, despite last year's nuclear deal with the US and global powers, the IRGC plays a key聽military role, and often a provocative one.

Those calculations mean that, even as all sides downplay the dangers, the Persian Gulf remains a flashpoint.

鈥淚n the Persian Gulf, any mistake by one soldier 鈥� one soldier 鈥撀燾ould raise fire across the entire Persian Gulf or Sea of Oman. We worry about that,鈥� says Abbas Qaidaari, a military expert at the Center for Strategic Studies, a think tank attached to Iran鈥檚 presidency.聽鈥淲e think that any unprofessional action, by Iranian fleets or the US and its allies, will be destructive.鈥�

That means the stakes are high for correctly interpreting the other side's moves. The Persian Gulf encounters are 鈥渏ust a signal, not a realistic action and it does not reflect our real policies. The US has to listen carefully,鈥� suggests Mr. Qaidaari.聽

鈥淚n any country there are hardliners, in the US, too,鈥� says Qaidaari, who argues that the IRGC won't hurt the US in the Persian Gulf because of national security interests. 鈥淲e have this community of hardliners who maybe want a war in the Persian Gulf. But look to the commander-in-chief [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]: He never wanted to start a new war in the Persian Gulf.鈥澛�

Recent incidents

Among recent incidents, Iran test-fired rockets near US ships last December, and an Iranian drone passed over a US aircraft carrier in January. The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, frequently conducts naval exercises with Gulf allies.聽

Adm. Alireza Tangsiri, acting commander of the IRGC Navy, said patrolling the Persian Gulf is a 鈥渞ound-the-clock mission that will continue in the future鈥� 鈥� with particular attention paid to US activity.

Iranian conservatives cite 鈥渢hreatening鈥� American behavior so close to Iran鈥檚 borders, and they recall that 10 US sailors were found in Iranian waters in January; Iran聽briefly seized them at gunpoint. Swift direct contact between top diplomats of both nations 鈥� an informal channel created during the nuclear talks 鈥撀爈ed to a quick resolution.

But often events move too quickly in the cramped waters of the Persian Gulf to prevent an escalation, without a dedicated line of communication. IRGC war games have included targeting replica American warships with Iranian fast-attack boats and missiles.

鈥淲e definitely believe they trespassed our waters 鈥� in most [recent] cases,鈥� says Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander and secretary of the Expediency Council, in an interview.

To Mr. Rezaei, the reason for Iran's concern is obvious:聽"The security of the Persian Gulf is in fact the security of Iran.鈥�

鈥淭here were a few cases in which our speedboats were suspicious about their activities, so they had to get closer,鈥� says Rezaei. Iranian craft approached even when US ships were in聽international waters.

鈥淥ur speedboats mostly just send them a warning 鈥� they don鈥檛 actually take any action 鈥� to understand the reaction of the other side,鈥� says Rezaei. Are those actions dangerous? 鈥淣ot from our side."

Hard-line media in Iran have emphasized 鈥減owerful warnings鈥� sent to the US. Vatan-e Emrouz headlined in mid-July that short-range Iranian Tondar missiles had been 鈥渁s close as 500 meters to the USS New Orleans鈥� 鈥撀燼n amphibious assault ship deployed in the Persian Gulf at the time.

With evident relish,聽the conservative Kayhan newspaper quoted a Washington Times headline from late August, saying that 鈥渃onfrontations reveal Obama鈥檚 nuclear deal having little effect on Iran鈥檚 behavior.鈥�

Challenging Rouhani聽

Such a result is a domestic challenge for Mr. Rouhani, who has in the past questioned IRGC timing of ballistic missile tests as provocative. Analysts say current IRGC actions send a deliberate message to Rouhani, who is under fire from rivals in advance of May 2017 presidential elections.

鈥淎fter Mr. Rouhani tried to limit missile tests, the IRGC itself wants to show it is still doing its duties, to say, 鈥楨ven if the [Rouhani] government is trusting the US, we don鈥檛 trust them,鈥� 鈥� says Mojtaba Mousavi, the founder of the conservative IransView.com website.

Mr. Khamenei and the establishment 鈥渇eel the danger,鈥� he says, pointing聽to the example of Iraq and Libya, which both took steps to accede to US and Western demands, only to be later attacked.

鈥淲hen the leader says you can鈥檛 trust the US, we can鈥檛 limit the military, because the US is waiting for the opportunity to weaken us,鈥� says Mr. Mousavi.

Analysts note that the incidents come amid a debate in Iran about reducing military聽spending, even as Iran is deeply engaged in costly wars in Syria and Iraq as well as Yemen.聽Mr. Khamenei has firmly backed a strong military, dismissing suggestions that high defense spending should give way to a future of diplomacy only.

Indeed, when Rouhani ally and former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani tweeted last March that the future was a 鈥渨orld of discourse, not of missiles,鈥� Khamenei responded that such talk might be 鈥渢reason,鈥� adding: 鈥淭oday it is a time for both negotiations and missiles.鈥�

The flashpoint聽

The Persian Gulf is one of the few places where the US-Iran standoff has periodically turned hot. Toward the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, an Iranian mine heavily damaged a US ship, prompting the US to strike two Iranian oil facilities and sink several Iranian vessels. Few Iranians forget the accidental downing of an Iran Air civilian plane by the USS Vincennes in 1988, killing all 290 passengers, because it was mistaken for an attacking Iranian jet fighter.聽

The political standoff in Iran is reflected in 鈥渁 strategic gap鈥� between hardliners and Rouhani and his allies, says Qaidaari of CSS. Hardliners see the US presence through the prism of a threat, with US bases dotted across the region and 鈥渁n attack policy for three decades, so [therefore] we can attack them, and we are able to, with our surface-to-sea missiles and fast-attack boats.鈥�

The Rouhani side asks, 鈥淲hy should there be this conflict in the Persian Gulf, with very serious potential for battle between Iran and the US and its allies?鈥� adds Qaidaari. 鈥淭here is only one way to change, to pay attention to common interests and not ideological policies.鈥�