海角大神

Why Yemen's government-in-exile is pressing for Saudi military restraint

A close aide to Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi said the exiled leader, fearing the toll from Saudi airstrikes would erode support, wanted a 'swift political solution' in Yemen.

When Saudi Arabia announced late Tuesday it was ending its 27-day air campaign in Yemen, it said 鈥淒ecisive Storm鈥� had 鈥渁chieved its goals鈥� and paved the way for a political process to restore the government of its ally, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

But pressure from the United States and President Hadi鈥檚 Saudi-based government-in-exile also played a role in the decision to scale back airstrikes, with Riyadh acknowledging that the decision came at the 鈥渞equest of the Yemeni government.鈥�

According to Yemeni government sources, Hadi had expressed concern to Riyadh over the humanitarian cost of the aerial campaign. The World Health Organization reported that spiraling violence in Yemen had killed 944 people and injured 3,487 between the campaign's launch in late March and April 17. It could not determine how many of the casualties were civilians.

Should the airstrikes continue and the death toll climb, Yemeni officials said, they feared Hadi would lose public support even among his staunchest supporters.

鈥淭he government made it clear that we did not want a humanitarian disaster or suffering in Yemen 鈥� we wanted a swift political solution,鈥� said a close aide to Hadi who was not authorized to speak to the press. 聽

The surprise suspension reportedly also came as Washington was pushing Saudi officials to halt the fighting to allow implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which calls for the disarming of Houthi militias and reinstallment of the Hadi government.

鈥淭he suspension of airstrikes is a chance to give the political track a chance, which has been the main request of the coalition鈥檚 Western allies for the past two weeks,鈥� says Jasser Abdulaziz al Jasser, a political analyst and managing editor at the Saudi daily Al Jazirah.

Pause for Saudis to reconsider

Regional observers say the decision was also a shrewd tactical move for Saudi Arabia, giving Riyadh a chance to reconsider the long-term costs of a wider 鈥� and much longer 鈥� war.

鈥淪audi Arabia does not want to be dragged into an unwinnable war,鈥� says Salman Sheikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center.

鈥淭he cease-fire allows Saudi Arabia to look decisive, give the political process a chance, while really weighing the risks of a larger war in the face of domestic pressures.鈥�

On Wednesday the airstrikes continued, however, and Saudi Arabia is bracing for a potential military escalation in Yemen, officials and observers say, readying ground troops should political dialogue fail and rebel Houthi militias refuse to abide by the UN resolution.

Limits of air power

The Saudi military declared that the air campaign had 鈥渟everely weakened鈥� the Houthis and loyalists to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, saying that 2,415 sorties had destroyed 聽80 percent of the fighters鈥� weapons depots, 90 percent of their airpower, and spurred 10 military brigades to break ranks with Mr. Saleh and pledge their support for the Hadi government.

But the Saudis had failed to dislodge tens of thousands of Houthi fighters and Saleh loyalists from the capital, Sanaa, or even the pro-government stronghold of Aden, which was the focus of intense fighting between Houthi and pro-government tribes over the past three weeks.

鈥淚f the Houthis or Saleh鈥檚 forces fail to respect the UN measure, we will see ground forces operations in Yemen 鈥� and soon,鈥� Mr. Jasser said.

鈥淎lthough Decisive Storm has ended, we will continue to protect our national interests and security,鈥� said an official close to the operation who was not authorized to speak to the press.聽鈥淚f we feel our homeland is threatened, or the security and stability of Yemen is threatened, ground forces will be ready.鈥�

To pave the way for a ground incursion, King Salman issued an edict early Tuesday announcing the participation of the National Guard in Decisive Storm operations 鈥� a mere few hours before the campaign was concluded.

Fate of talks unclear

Military officials and observers say that by putting the 100,000-strong National Guard on alert, Riyadh will be able to swiftly respond to any incursions near its 1,000-mile shared border with Yemen, which has been a flashpoint for clashes between Houthi fighters that killed three Saudi officers over the past month.

As of Wednesday, it was unclear how and if a political process leading to the implementation of the UN resolution would take place.

The tough-worded UN Resolution 2216, proposed by Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, calls for arms embargoes on Houthis and Saleh loyalists and placed sanctions and travel bans on Abdulmalik al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi movement, on Saleh, and on his son Ahmed.

The text of the resolution urges Houthi militias to 鈥渨ithdraw from all areas seized during the latest conflict,鈥� surrender arms seized from security and military forces, and refrain from 鈥渢hreats to neighboring states.鈥�

Houthis were quick to denounce the UN resolution and so far have declared no intent to enter any dialogue.

'Limited' ground operations

Even on the first day of its political campaign, 鈥淩estoring Hope,鈥� Saudi Arabia showed little sign of slowing its military intervention.

Saudi warplanes continued to strike Houthi targets in the city of Taz on Wednesday, while Saudi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri warned that the end to Decisive Storm did not amount to a "cease-fire.鈥�

Yet even should talks fail to take place and Houthi militias refuse to recognize the Hadi government, Saudi military sources say operations will most likely be 鈥渓imited鈥� to surgical ground operations to bolster government-aligned tribal militias in key cities 鈥� something the airstrikes largely failed to do.

鈥淪audi Arabia鈥檚 main goal is to improve conditions on the ground for the Hadi government to return to Yemen,鈥� says Brookings鈥� Mr. Sheikh.聽鈥淚t has yet to be seen how far they will go to achieve this.鈥�