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Iran nuclear deal: Saudi Arabia fears rival's regional footprint

Riyadh worries that lifting sanctions on Iran means greater firepower for its proxy forces, including in Yemen where a Saudi-led bombing campaign continues. Saudi Arabia also wants its own nuclear program, for what is says are peaceful purposes. 

In public, Saudi Arabia has offered cautious praise for last week's international nuclear agreement with Iran, its regional rival.聽King Salman聽told聽US President Barack Obama last聽Thursday聽that he hoped that a final deal 鈥渨ould aid in developing regional and international security,鈥� the state-run Saudi Press Agency reported.

But even if the framework deal prevents Iran for now from building a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority state, frets that it won鈥檛 stop Iran鈥檚 support for Shiite militant groups across the Middle East. And that regional threat, in turn, may nudge Riyadh towards reviving its mothballed nuclear program in order to counter Iran鈥檚, according to Saudi officials and analysts.

鈥淪audi Arabia is all for nuclear security in the region, but is more concerned about Iran鈥檚 growing support and funding for terrorist groups and the interference in internal Arab affairs,鈥� says Jasser Abdelaziz al Jasser, political analyst and managing editor at the state-run Saudi Al Jazeera newspaper.

鈥淚f they do not see real action on this front, they will take matters into their own hands.鈥�

Like much of the Arab world, Saudi officials are anxious both to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons and to counter its funding and arming of allied Shiite forces, such as Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. That puts them broadly in the same camp as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has warned repeatedly of growing Iranian influence in the region.

Observers and officials here say in the wake of the deal they expect to see Saudi-led聽forces step up their bombing campaign聽in Yemen,聽where Riyadh accuses Iran of聽backing聽Houthi insurgents that forced out a Saudi-backed president.

Saudi official sources say Riyadh will 鈥渂ring all its military might鈥� in Yemen to push back Houthi militias,聽which are allied to Yemen鈥檚 former dictator, and send Iran a direct message: deal or no deal, the time for retaliation has come.

鈥淔or years, Iran has been crossing the red-line and has been supporting militias and terrorist groups across the Arab world,鈥� says a Saudi official聽familiar with the military campaign. 鈥淣ow in Yemen, we are finally standing up and making a stand, and our stand will only strengthen, not weaken after this deal.鈥�

Ground incursion mulled in Yemen

According to officials close to the decision-making process, Riyadh is mulling the deployment of hundreds of Saudi Marines and Special Forces 鈥撀爌ossibly with a role for Egyptian forces 鈥撀爐o secure the Yemeni port city of Aden, the interim capital of the聽beleaguered pro-Saudi聽government.聽

Saudi聽officials say Riyadh has accelerated its plans for a ground incursion聽in Yemen聽in order to ratchet up pressure on Iran and score military gains long before any sanctions are potentially lifted聽under the nuclear deal between Iran and the US and five other world powers.

In Syria, Saudi Arabia supports armed groups fighting against President Bashar Al-Assad, whose security forces increasingly rely on those of Iran and Hezbollah. Sources in the Free Syrian Army, one of the rebel groups, say聽Saudi Arabia has in recent days more than doubled its funding,聽a move aimed at helping to check Iran鈥檚 proxy forces in southern Syria.

鈥淪audi Arabia is keeping our campaign alive- they have made it clear that the south should not be lost,鈥� says FSA commander Assad Zoubi.

Observers say Saudi Arabia will continue to ramp up its military pushback against Iran until it receives assurances from the US and the West that any final deal will call for Tehran to end its interventions in the Arab world.

鈥淲hat Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world is looking for is not an agreement that only deals with the nuclear issue, but one that also brings an end to Iranian interference in the Arab world which has become the major source of instability in the region,鈥� says Hani Wafa, analyst and political editor at the Saudi daily Al Riyadh.

Saudi nuclear ambitions

Meanwhile,聽observers and officials say Saudi Arabia,聽the world鈥檚 largest oil producer, is to accelerate its own drive for nuclear energy by fast-tracking the construction of up to 10 nuclear聽reactors and laying the groundwork for potential uranium enrichment.

The Saudi nuclear program has聽been聽dormant since 2007. Yet with Iran receiving a potential stamp of approval聽by the international community, and聽with the signing of聽a recent nuclear cooperation agreement with South Korea, Riyadh聽seems聽determined to produce atomic energy as early as 2021 and has refused to rule out uranium enrichment.

Saudi Arabia insists that it only wants to develop nuclear energy. Still, fears remain that it could develop a parallel weapons program, potentially with help from its ally Pakistan, and that Iran鈥檚 advancement will spark a regional nuclear-arms race.

鈥淭here is a feeling in Saudi Arabia that if Iran can produce nuclear energy with the blessing of the international community, why not us?鈥� Mr. al-Jasser says.聽

鈥淭his program has become an issue of national security for Saudi Arabia 鈥� in order to compete with Iran, it, too must become a nuclear energy state.鈥�

鈥淔or Iran and Saudi Arabia, nuclear energy is a means, rather than the end game.鈥�