海角大神

Egypt's opposition still hopeful, despite many defeats

Egypt's opposition has been notoriously disorganized and unable to rally its supporters. However, it may have finally been beaten badly enough to overcome its troubles. 

When a controversial constitutional draft went to a vote earlier聽this month, the Egyptian opposition was, as usual, in disarray.

It waffled for weeks between boycotting the referendum and calling for a聽no vote. When it finally chose the latter only days before the first round of voting on Dec. 15, it was too late to overcome the Muslim Brotherhood聽and their salafist allies鈥� strong campaign for a "yes."

But the backlash facing President Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood聽for rushing the constitution through without input from the opposition has聽given his opponents new hope for electoral success.聽

鈥淭he divisions are a thing of the past now and we have Mr. Morsi to thank聽for that,鈥� says Mostafa El Guindi, who was an independent member of the聽now-dissolved parliament and played a role in organizing the main facets of聽the opposition into a new coalition, the National Salvation Front.

鈥淭he marriage between ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabahi is now fact,鈥� he聽says, referring to two politicians with often clashing policies. That the Nobel prize winner and former head of聽the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed ElBaradei, and聽Hamdeen Sabahi, the leftist candidate who came in a surprising third in聽June鈥檚 presidential elections, have come together shows the strength of the determination to create a united front against the Brothers.

This gives the opposition new hope heading towards parliamentary聽elections which, according to Egyptian law, must happen within two months of the approval of the constitution.聽

Rejecting political games

But there are also those who say the opposition has only itself to blame聽for its failure to chip away at the electoral successes of the Muslim聽Brotherhood.

鈥淢any people wanted to vote no in the referendum about the constitution,聽but they were looking for a good reason to do so,鈥� says Fady Ramzy, who runs the think tank .聽鈥淭he problem is that the opposition doesn鈥檛 have a political product to sell. They should have spent their time convincing people that this constitution is [a waste] for any number of reasons, and that we should聽do a better job. Because what we have now is just a bunch of nice聽words with no mechanism to hold those in power to the promises contained in the constitution. Instead, the opposition chose to make a lot of聽noise about the influence of聽sharia聽in the new constitution.鈥�

Mr. Ramzy鈥檚 assertion was echoed by voters in some of the districts in the Nile Delta last week.聽Most Egyptians voting "yes" cited a desire for stability as their main聽reason, while most "no" voters had very specific reasons to be against the constitution. Among them were the absence of a minimum wage in Egypt 鈥搘ages are instead linked to productivity 鈥� or the fact that free health聽care is subject to a "certificate of poverty," which many see as聽humiliating.

Not a single voter cited the role of sharia, or Islamic law, as a reason聽to vote either for or against the document, despite the fact that both聽sides had campaigned mainly on this issue.

鈥淭he religious factor is decreasing with every election,鈥� says聽Ramzy. 鈥淧eople realize that political games are being played with聽religion, and they are starting to refuse being put before the choice of聽voting for or against Islam.鈥�

Disillusioned by democracy's slow pace

There is also a growing belief that Egypt鈥檚 chaotic path since聽the overthrow of Mubarak in February 2011 was perhaps an inevitable one.

For all the criticism of the opposition, 鈥渋t is unreasonable to聽expect Egypt to have a healthy political landscape just two years after聽the fall of a dictatorship,鈥澛爌olitical activist聽Alfred Raouf says.

鈥淲e need at least five years to get to that point, especially with a Muslim聽Brotherhood that is not really intent on having a diverse political聽landscape, but rather wants to take the place of the NDP,鈥� he says, referring to Mubarak's former National Democratic Party.

Writing in the Egypt Independent this week, Mr. Raouf said that even if the revolutionaries had been the ones to assume power, they would have "quickly oppressed the people."聽What happened instead 鈥� military rule followed by a landslide for聽the Muslim Brotherhood 鈥� 鈥渟eems to most people like a catastrophic聽outcome to a very hopeful revolution," but is actually "the best course for the revolution,鈥� Raouf wrote.聽

Nevertheless, Raouf, a founding member of ElBaradei鈥檚 Dostour (Constitution) party,聽sees an opportunity for the opposition to make inroads in the next聽parliamentary elections, even if the current opposition coalition dissolves before then.聽

Mostafa El Guindi believes the opposition has a chance to win a majority in parliament. But Raouf is more conservative. 鈥淚 think we have a聽good chance of getting 45 percent of the seats in parliament, up from聽around 30 percent, provided there is no rigging,鈥� he says.

What worries him most is voter turnout, which is lower with聽every election or referendum.

鈥淚t suggests that people no longer believe in democracy because they don鈥檛聽see it helping them in their daily lives.鈥�