Brexit vote: Could there be a do-over referendum?
After Brexit, an online petition calling for a rerun referendum has already gathered a staggering two million signatures. Is such a proposal realistic?
Two activists with the EU flag and Union Jack painted on their faces kiss each other in front of Brandenburg Gate to protest against the British exit from the European Union, in Berlin, Germany, June 19, 2016.
Hannibal Hanschke/Reuters/File
As the British people begin to recover from the initial shock of having voted to leave the European Union 鈥� a result that was generally unexpected 鈥� the 48 percent who wanted to stay are beginning to take action, pouring their support into a petition that calls for a rerun.
Already, the petition has , and every minute thousands more are being added, calling on the government to have another referendum in light of the fact that the 鈥渓eave鈥� vote was less than 60 percent, and turnout less than 75 percent.
But, as impressive as these numbers are, is there actually any prospect of this momentous decision being overturned and a fresh referendum called?
鈥淧olitically, the notion of re-running a referendum on membership is unimaginable,鈥� Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe, a London-based independent body of experts, tells 海角大神 in a phone interview. 鈥淚 just don鈥檛 think it has legs, bearing in mind the level of hypocrisy that would be required on both sides.鈥�
In Britain, Parliament is obliged to consider all petitions supported by at least 100,000 signatures, a target already obliterated on this occasion. Moreover, unless specifically incorporated into the legislation governing a given referendum 鈥� which, in this case, it was not 鈥� the results are non-binding on the British government.
Only last month, leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, told the Mirror, 鈥淚n a 52-48 referendum this would be .鈥� As one of the most prominent campaigners for 鈥淏rexit,鈥� he was talking about a narrow victory in favor of remaining part of the EU, but the logic should be equally applicable under the current circumstances.
Nonetheless, while the referendum introduces no legal imperative, most analysts agree it does carry a democratic one. Prime Minister David Cameron, in announcing his resignation Friday, agreed.
鈥淭丑别 is an instruction that must be delivered,鈥� said Prime Minister Cameron. 鈥淭丑别re can be no doubt about the result.鈥�
Yet, as Anne Deighton, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, tells the Monitor in an email exchange, it is hardly surprising that this petition is enjoying such a tide of support.
鈥淭丑别re is, generally, a huge hangover in the UK now,鈥� says Dr. Deighton. 鈥淭丑别 petition is part of the hangover 鈥� that inflamed politics has unintended consequences for unwary voters.鈥�
But Cameron, who has in the past specifically ruled out a second referendum, is not the only political heavyweight to take such a stance. Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, who also campaigned in favor of remaining in the EU, said of the results 鈥渨e have got to accept that decision and in the future.鈥�
In complete agreement with the Labour leader on this point, Richard Whitman, a senior fellow in the Europe program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, describes the petition as 鈥渃losing the gate after the stable horse has bolted.鈥�
鈥淭丑别 real issue now,鈥� Dr. Whitman, who is also director of the University of Kent鈥檚 Global Europe Centre, tells the Monitor in an email interview, 鈥渋s to swiftly determine which of the non-membership relationships with the EU is the most viable proposition.鈥�
EU foreign ministers are of the same opinion, urging the UK to 鈥�.鈥�
In practice, this requires the UK to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which will start a two-year countdown, by the end of which,聽agreement on any future relationship must have been reached. For any deal to be binding, it must be acceptable to all 27 remaining EU member states.
Yet it is the detail of this agreement 鈥� assuming one is reached 鈥� that could present the possibility of another referendum in Britain. As Dr. Menon tells the Monitor, it all depends on the similarity such an agreement holds to the current state of affairs, the two critical issues being sovereignty and the freedom of movement.
鈥淭丑别 potential for a referendum declines the further we go from what we had before,鈥� says Menon. 鈥淏ut it is a possibility, simply because, from a purely analytical perspective, any deal between the EU and the UK would have ramifications almost as significant as the decision to leave.鈥�