海角大神

In 鈥榬eferendum on Starmer,鈥� Labour loses big across British regional elections

When Britons headed to the polls in the country鈥檚 local elections on Thursday, the question was not whether the ruling Labour Party would lose 鈥� but just how bad the damage would be.

In previous decades, working-class towns like this former industrial hub on the outskirts of Manchester were the backbone of Labour鈥檚 voter base. Political commentators used to joke that Labour ballots here weren鈥檛 counted, but weighed. Candidates watched the votes being counted in the sleek central hall of the town鈥檚 recently opened event complex: just one part of a glitzy, 拢450 million ($613 million) regeneration project rolled out by Oldham鈥檚 Labour-dominated council.

But when the results were finally confirmed on Friday morning, the message they sent was decisive. Of the 20 seats up for grabs, 13 were won by the populist right-wing party Reform UK. Labour won only three seats and lost its hold on the council, with no party now able to claim the council鈥檚 overall control. (Only a third of Oldham鈥檚 total 60 council seats were at stake.)

Oldham鈥檚 results are reflected across the country.

In regional elections widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister and Labour leader Keir Starmer, Mr. Starmer鈥檚 party experienced overwhelming defeats across the country, falling to challenges from Reform UK, resurgent nationalist parties in Wales and Scotland, and smaller upstarts such as the left-wing Green Party.

In England council results, Labour had won 952聽seats 鈥� a net loss of 1,360 鈥� while Reform UK had gained聽1,419, as of publication time on Friday. Labour鈥檚 losses extended into Scotland鈥檚 devolved Parliament in Holyrood, as well as its Welsh equivalent, the Senedd. Wales鈥� first minister, Labour鈥檚 Eluned Morgan, was among those to lose her seat.

鈥淚 think people in this town and this borough are fed up and have made their voice very loud and clear at this election,鈥� says Reform鈥檚 leader in Oldham, Councillor Lewis Quigg. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e fed up with the wanton disregard of concerns. They are fed up with the establishment and the established parties, and they have decided to back Reform at this election.鈥�

Reform on the march

Thursday鈥檚 elections, though nationwide, were limited to regional offices: mostly town- and district-level councils, as well as the regional parliaments of Scotland and Wales. As such, the results don鈥檛 have an impact on the makeup of the national Parliament in Westminster, and have minimal impact on national issues like immigration.

Nonetheless, national issues were front and center for Reform UK, which campaigned under the slogan, 鈥淕et Starmer Out.鈥� And those topics resonated in places like Oldham, where many still feel that their neighborhoods have been neglected and their voices unheard in London.

鈥淭hey鈥檝e allowed our town to go down over the years,鈥� says Steve Eyre, the newly elected Reform councillor for the ward of Shaw on Oldham鈥檚 more rural outskirts. He says his area has suffered from chronic and long-term underfunding 鈥� a trend that he鈥檚 keen to reverse. 鈥淲e鈥檝e lost many things, including our town hall, our market, our swimming pool. A lot of things, like infrastructure in our town, [haven't]聽been really looked at for 39 years.鈥�

That message was able to reach disillusioned and disenfranchised voters.

Martin Rickman had never voted before this election. But he said that Reform shared his beliefs, particularly on how to handle migrants who arrive in the U.K. on small boats used by people smugglers to cross the English Channel. 鈥淸It鈥檚 about] sending them all home, more money for the British people, more money for veterans who are on the streets,鈥� he says.

Meanwhile, Labour鈥檚 performance in government has sparked little enthusiasm. Since he assumed office in July 2024, Mr. Starmer has been viewed as largely ineffective on the domestic stage 鈥� and has had to fend off a number of long-running scandals, such as his decision to appoint politician and lobbyist Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States, despite the latter鈥檚 association with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

鈥淭here was lots of talk of the adults being back in the room [when Mr. Starmer was elected], says Sam Power, a lecturer studying British politics at the University of Bristol. 鈥漅ecent events suggest that claim is at the very least questionable.鈥�

Even among those who actually voted for Labour, it was often more by default than by choice. 鈥淲here I live, they鈥檙e the only party that has a chance of being elected 鈥� well, being elected other than Reform,鈥� says Adam Hill, who votes in Wigan, another of Manchester鈥檚 post-industrial satellite towns. 鈥淚 would probably vote for The [left-wing] Greens if I thought they had a chance of winning.鈥�

Danny Thomas says he 鈥渁lways has鈥� voted Labour 鈥� and sees no appealing alternative. Mr. Starmer needs to 鈥渉ave a bit more backbone,鈥� he says. 鈥淗e seems to flip and flap, go this way, go that way, whichever way the wind鈥檚 blowing.鈥�

Reform鈥檚 success is understandable under the circumstances, says Labour and Co-operative party candidate Samuel Hollis, who was beaten in his bid to become an Oldham councillor by his Reform UK rival.

鈥淩eform have focused on some of their leaflets about national policies, that policies that councils can鈥檛 act on,鈥� he said at the end of a long and grueling night. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a mix of national politics and people want to see change, and we can鈥檛 blame them because we are a party in government and a party who was controlling the council, at least with a minority.鈥�

A fracturing spectrum

Other, smaller parties also celebrated victories, emphasizing the U.K鈥檚 gradual shift away from the two-party system that has dominated the country for more than a century.

The Green Party had won 498聽local seats as of publication, as well as victories in mayoral elections taking place in the London boroughs of Hackney and Lewisham, both previously held by Labour.

Green leader Zack Polanski told the BBC it proved that two-party politics 鈥渋s not just dying, it is dead and it is buried.鈥�

In the Welsh Senedd, as of publication on Friday, the nationalist Plaid Cymru had gained a historic 43 seats. It marked a major coup for a party that has historically lacked the sort of backing that its Scottish counterpart, the Scottish National Party, has enjoyed. Elsewhere in the Senedd, Reform UK had gained 34 seats on Friday, while Labour won only nine.

Meanwhile, Britain鈥檚 other traditional major party, the center-right Conservatives, was largely a nonentity, unable to turn around the devastating losses they saw in the 2024 general election.

These surges could drastically impact how English politics operates. On a local level, many councils are now without a controlling party, requiring a different kind of compromise and negotiation from local officials. This increasing political diversity could also appear again in the country鈥檚 next general election.

While local ballots often see protest votes and lower turnouts, the electorate has become more willing to vote for nontraditional parties, says Dr. Power of the University of Bristol. 鈥淭here is absolutely no guarantee that these voters that Labour have lost will simply return, because it鈥檚 not just a matter of returning home. There鈥檚 actually now a lot of different homes that voters feel that they could go to,鈥� he says.

The U.K.鈥檚 current electoral system follows the principle of 鈥渇irst past the post,鈥� where whichever candidate wins the most votes in an area takes its seat in Parliament. Historically, it has benefited larger parties by incentivizing tactical voting, where voters use their ballot to keep their least-preferred candidate out, rather than to express their own beliefs. But with enough momentum, that same system could swing to benefit new parties, Dr. Power says 鈥� and then make it very difficult for the longtime party they鈥檝e supplanted to get a foothold once more.

鈥淭he problem that both Labor and the Conservatives will start having, especially if Reform are polling above the Conservatives and if the Green Party are polling above Labour, is that 鈥榝irst past the post鈥� takes away as quickly as it gives,鈥� says Dr. Power. 鈥淚f you become the second party in the tactical voter calculation, you can suddenly lose an awful amount of seats very, very quickly. And it can be an extinction-level event.鈥�