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Differing Ukraine peace plans point to strains in the Western alliance

Thanksgiving, that most American of holidays, resonates powerfully this year thousands of miles away from U.S. shores: in war-battered, war-weary Ukraine.

Ukrainians aren鈥檛 exactly celebrating. But they are breathing a huge, collective sigh of relief.

That鈥檚 because only days ago, President Donald Trump鈥檚 latest push for a peace deal produced a 28-point plan clearly rewarding Russia 鈥� politically, territorially, and economically 鈥� for its unprovoked invasion and nearly four-year devastation of Ukraine.

And Mr. Trump set Thanksgiving Day as a deadline for Ukraine鈥檚 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept that or lose vital U.S. security and intelligence assistance.

Now, the day of reckoning has been averted. Or at least delayed.

Citing 鈥渢remendous progress,鈥� Mr. Trump announced on Tuesday that he was sending his envoys for further talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Mr. Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

Still, however those talks go, the diplomatic scramble since the 28-point plan became public late last week has underscored the wider and deeper international stakes involved in the outcome.

It might best be described as a 鈥渢est of the West.鈥�

The shape of any eventual peace will likely determine the future shape of the Atlantic alliance that has bound Washington and its democratic allies in Europe together since the Second World War.

Washington excluded its NATO and European Union partners from Mr. Trump鈥檚 new push for peace in Ukraine. Staunch supporters of Kyiv, they were alarmed by the prospect of a U.S.-backed deal skewed toward the aggressor, Russia, and leaning on Kyiv to fall in line.

America鈥檚 allies were unsettled by more than the details of the 28-point plan.

At a deeper level, they sensed that the plan implied a fundamental difference with the Trump administration over the cause of the war, the future threat of an emboldened Kremlin, and the long-term dangers for the security of Europe鈥檚 democracies.

Their hope now is that a Western consensus, rooted in a shared desire for a durable peace agreement, can be restored.

European leaders and diplomats played a critical role in fending off Washington鈥檚 sprint for a Thanksgiving deal. Coordinating with Kyiv, they helped draw up amendments to the 28-point plan that were discussed with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Geneva earlier this week.

The new 19-point draft proposes deferring key Russian demands, especially the surrender of further Ukrainian territory and limits to allied security support for Ukraine. Those questions would be left for talks between Mr. Trump and Ukraine鈥檚 president.

Now, in the breathing space afforded by the U.S. envoys鈥� talks in Moscow and Kyiv, the Europeans are intensifying their efforts to convince Mr. Trump that they can help him achieve the peace deal he has spent 10 frustrating months trying to deliver.

Leaders of Britain, France, Germany, and the EU have publicly praised Mr. Trump for his fresh attempt to negotiate a peace agreement. They have been emphasizing key areas of agreement on its likely shape, including de facto acceptance of Russia鈥檚 control over the roughly one-fifth of Ukraine that its forces have occupied.

They now seem to be looking for ways to reformulate parts of the 28-point plan in ways that do not reward Mr. Putin simply for calling off his drone and missile attacks, and ordering the guns to fall silent.

One example is the proposed reentry of Russia into the G7 group of advanced industrialized nations.

That is something European leaders currently find unthinkable. Yet they are suggesting that such a move could be made contingent on Russia honoring any peace deal.

Regarding Ukraine鈥檚 future security, they have helped convince Ukraine to accept a limit on the future size of the country鈥檚 armed forces 鈥� but setting it at 800,000 instead of the 600,000 originally suggested.

And with Britain鈥檚 Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron taking the lead, they are pressing the need to guarantee Ukraine鈥檚 security against future Russian aggression 鈥� in part through a European 鈥渃oalition of the willing鈥� that could provide a peacekeeping force with U.S. intelligence and logistical backup.

Their view is that if Mr. Putin really wants peace, Mr. Trump could make that happen, and that the Russian leader would be able to argue that he had won lasting control over all the land his forces have taken.

But the key issue 鈥� and a critical test for the Western alliance 鈥� is the Europeans鈥� insistence that any postwar arrangement be built on a clear recognition that Russia started the conflict, and that Ukraine was the victim of an invasion intended to topple its government and seize its territory.

That is at the core of concerted European overtures to Mr. Trump and his key diplomats.

One passing reference that the United States president made earlier this week may help explain their concern.

It came as part of Mr. Trump鈥檚 now-familiar insistence that if he, rather than former President Joe Biden, had been in charge in 2022, Russia鈥檚 invasion would never have happened.

But the president made no mention of the invasion. And his turn of phrase was telling.

He described the conflict as 鈥渢he Ukraine war with Russia.鈥�