海角大神

How Ukrainians fend off Russia, while awaiting new US military aid

It is just after 3:30 a.m., and a Ukrainian artillery team鈥檚 half-dozen men are asleep in a cramped underground dugout, the dirt walls fortified by logs and the space dimly lit by a single string of green fairy lights.

In the near-darkness, on this southeast corner of the Ukrainian front line, the radio crackles to life.

鈥淭hey brought us ammunition without telling us,鈥� the awakened radio operator announces.

鈥淎t least they are bringing ammo!鈥� says another soldier groggily, in a joking reference to the severe shortage of artillery shells felt just months ago all along Ukraine鈥檚 600-mile front with invading Russian troops.

When the radio crackles again with coordinates of a target, the gunners, from Ukraine鈥檚 148th Separate Artillery Brigade, bolt into action. They dart into the dark trenches outside to get to their gun, an American-supplied M777 howitzer that fires 155 mm shells at the Russian lines.

They roll up the camouflage netting and load and fire one round from the smoke-belching mechanical behemoth, before concealing it again.

Two hours later, lingering Russian drones seeking out their position have departed, and the Ukrainian gunners repeat their moves. They fire 10 rounds in a row, one after another with careful directional adjustments each time, an indication that a Ukrainian drone can see the Russian target and is correcting fire in real time.

鈥淲e work when the Russians conduct an assault; we work every day,鈥� says the unit commander who gave the name Ihor, call sign Hellboy, who wears a beard and sideburns beneath a shaved head.

A window for Russia

On this critical corner of the front line, he says, Ukraine has not suffered major territorial losses since the fall of Avdiivka in February, 鈥渂ut the intensity of their [Russian] offensive has a reason.鈥�

That perceived reason is what Russia may see now as a window of opportunity, before Ukrainian lines are further bolstered by an influx of American and European weaponry and ammunition.

Ukraine confirmed a first delivery of long-delayed F-16 jet fighters in recent days, for example, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed as a 鈥渘ew stage of development鈥� for Ukraine鈥檚 air forces.

In June and July, an initiative of the Czech Republic has provided some 100,000 shells 鈥� with a total of 500,000 due by the end of the year 鈥� a number that Ukrainian officials say has already helped them achieve near-parity now in shell numbers with Russia.

Coming, too, but not yet decisively felt, say Ukrainian officers at several points along the front line, is a colossal $60.84 billion American military aid package, which was delayed for months by Congressional Republicans before passage in late April.

鈥淔rom March to the middle of spring, we had to save shells,鈥� says Ihor, who gives the rank of 鈥渟oldier.鈥� 鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 say it was a crisis, but we had to be precise.鈥� Even now, the explosive charges used to fire the shells can require fine-tuned targeting, because they are supplied by different countries and can be decades old or of varying quality.

鈥淲e need something to work with and to fight our enemy,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e see the effect of that [U.S. and European support] 鈥� we get a lot more ammo compared with the spring. 鈥� [But] the reality is that we are in defensive positions.鈥�

Russia moves the line

On paper, Russia鈥檚 main offensive effort this year聽鈥� a May push toward Ukraine鈥檚 second-largest city, Kharkiv, in the northeast聽鈥� was stopped after two weeks with few significant Russian gains. In July, President Zelenskyy said some 20,000 Russian soldiers died in those battles, though other estimates have been lower.

The British Ministry of Defense recently calculated Russian casualties to number 1,262 per day in May, and 1,162 per day in June 鈥� totaling more than 70,000 for the two months and the highest rate since Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

But on the map, Russia鈥檚 advances in the past month have been steady along the entire eastern front, even if slow. President Zelenskyy said last week that, after the failure of the Kharkiv assault, Russian forces are now 鈥渢hrowing everything they have鈥� to capture Pokrovsk.

鈥淵ou can feel the shells arriving, you can feel the effect鈥� of the new U.S. and European supplies, says Sgt. Volodymyr Lutsyk, a tank squad commander some 80 miles to the west, on Ukraine鈥檚 southern front. His unit 鈥� known as Dmytro Kotsiubailo鈥檚 1st Separate Assault Battalion 鈥� is made up entirely of what are thought of as 鈥渢rophy鈥� tanks captured from Russian forces.

鈥淥f course, we would like to make advances, but we need more resources to advance,鈥� says Sergeant Lutsyk, sitting on a pristine Russian T-72 tank 鈥� now dug into the ground and heavily camouflaged 鈥� captured when a mine blew off one of its tracks.

鈥淭here is no point in us sitting around and defending,鈥� he says. 鈥淎ll of us came here to take back our country; we have the spirit to fight. But we can鈥檛 just jump on our enemy and fight head-to-head 鈥撀爓e need more resources.鈥�

The tank commander notes that Ukraine is 鈥渇ighting a very serious enemy鈥� and that there is always room for more ammunition, as both sides evolve and improve.

鈥淔or a long time we saw the Russians flailing. They have found their own way out of this with 鈥榞lide bombs,鈥欌�� says Sergeant Lutsyk, referring to heavy Soviet-era 鈥渄umb鈥� bombs that Russia updates with wings and guidance systems and launches to devastating effect from deep inside Russian territory.

鈥淭his is an advantage, and we don鈥檛 have any answer,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his has its result, and you can see it on the map.鈥�

Not all are optimistic

Indeed, Ukraine鈥檚 commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, acknowledged Aug. 1 that, amid heavy Russian losses, Russian forces had made 鈥渟light advances on the front-line.鈥�

That kind of advantage is why optimism is not universal that the influx of more Western weapons and ammunition 鈥� including the arrival of F-16s 鈥� can turn the tide of the war for Ukraine.

鈥淚鈥檓 not optimistic,鈥� says one Ukrainian front-line military medic active on the eastern front.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just my personal opinion. If a miracle doesn鈥檛 happen, I don鈥檛 think we will be able to win this war in our favor,鈥� says the medic, who could not be further identified. 鈥淲e are not advancing much, and at the same time we spend a lot of resources, a lot of man power, holding onto the positions that we are holding, with a high price.

鈥淐onsidering the fact that Russia has installed an industrial-level production of munitions and bombs, and they have an endless amount of people 鈥� and we don鈥檛 have that amount of people 鈥� so it鈥檚 just the math,鈥� adds the medic.

鈥淚s it really a huge package? They [the U.S.] promised a lot, but what comes? You never know,鈥� says the medic. 鈥淚f this really will change the balance and we will have an advantage at some point in weapons, then probably, yes 鈥� but I don鈥檛 know.鈥�

Compared with that of Russian troops, Ukrainians鈥� far higher morale 鈥� as defenders of their territory and locked in what is often portrayed in Ukraine as an existential fight 鈥� 鈥渋s the only thing keeping us afloat for now.鈥�

Fighting and waiting

Still, Ukrainian soldiers along this eastern front also frequently articulate a determination to fight, regardless of the circumstances 鈥撀燽ut also await enough Western weaponry to enable their aim of eventually forcing Russian troops out of Ukraine.

A team arrives at the artillery position in the Marinka direction, to use a camera device to inspect the M777 gun barrel for wear and tear. It is worn, but still serviceable.

鈥淪o what does that mean 鈥� can we not shoot another 2,000 shells with this gun?鈥� asks one of the artillerymen, before adding, tongue in cheek: 鈥淥r will someone give us a new barrel?鈥�

The battlefield result will almost certainly depend on what arrives, and how it is used in the fight.

鈥淲ar is going on, and no one can feel safe,鈥� says Oleksii, call sign Cardinal, a military surgeon at a medical stabilization point run by the 66th Brigade in the Donetsk region.

What about the impact of the American aid package?

鈥淚 will only be able to say it is effective when I see the results of that, when there will be no more of our wounded soldiers on these [treatment] tables.鈥�

Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.