海角大神

Outgunned, Ukrainians watch Congress while facing Russians

The Ukrainian soldiers burrow into their musty underground bunker, waiting at dawn for target coordinates to fire their 105 mm artillery gun. Russian drones have been active overhead, and two incoming Russian shells had come their way.

But the main topic of discussion below ground 鈥� here, on one of the farthest frozen battlefields in eastern Ukraine 鈥� is of three new jolts of bad news that these soldiers see as closely interlinked. All are indicative of the urgent need for more American arms and ammunition.

First being digested: a new order to substantially cut back and cap the number of shells they fire at the Russian enemy each day.

鈥淓ven without this limitation there was not enough,鈥� says the squad leader of the 1st Presidential Brigade of the Ukraine National Guard, giving the name Sasha. 鈥淪oon we鈥檙e going to have to fight them with our hands.鈥�

Second, news emerged that the city of Avdiivka had fallen, after months of fierce fighting that Ukrainian officials estimate cost Russia some 17,000 dead troops. That news came to this cramped bunker in emotional form, with a video of a wounded soldier left behind in the chaotic final stages of Ukraine鈥檚 retreat, who called his sister to say goodbye. (Relatives later recognized the soldier鈥檚 body, along with five others, from videos taken after Russians seized the position, Ukrainian media reported.)

The third piece of bad news was from Washington. The U.S. House of Representatives had recessed until the end of February, further delaying a vote on a $60 billion military aid package that cleared the Senate with bipartisan support. Ukraine deems that assistance instrumental to the war effort, if it is going to halt Russia鈥檚 building offensive, if not reverse it.

As the second anniversary nears of Russia鈥檚 all-out invasion of Ukraine, the optimism that heralded Ukraine鈥檚 against-all-odds defense in 2022 鈥� which forced Russian troops away from the capital, Kyiv, and recaptured swaths of northeast and south Ukraine 鈥� has faded.

It had diminished throughout 2023 with a failed counteroffensive that was bolstered by Western arms deliveries, yet ran headlong into heavily mined Russian positions.

鈥淵ou Americans ... have to decide鈥�

But today one message is constant from Ukrainian soldiers, at multiple points along the front: an urgent plea for weapons and ammunition, on a scale and timeline that only the United States can provide.

The $60 billion vote is 鈥渧ery critical. Europe can鈥檛 provide all the supplies,鈥� says a soldier in the bunker, a former English teacher who gives the name Kostiantyn.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, addressing the loss of Avdiivka and a stepped-up Russian pressure along the front, said Monday that Russia was 鈥渢aking advantage of the delays in aid to Ukraine.鈥�

鈥淲e have enough so we don鈥檛 lose, but we are far from getting the means of winning. That鈥檚 it,鈥� says Kostiantyn. Like many here, he presents the Ukraine war as a pivotal contest between the democracies of the West, and the authoritarianism and dictatorship represented by Vladimir Putin鈥檚 Russia.

鈥淵ou Americans 鈥� 鈥榃e the people,鈥� as you say 鈥� have to decide whether to remain a global power,鈥� the former teacher says. 鈥淔or us, we don鈥檛 have a choice, because we have to fight. If not, then someone on TV will tell my kid she is not Ukrainian, she is Russian. And I don鈥檛 want that, so we will keep on fighting.

鈥淔or you, you have to decide for yourselves, no matter the camp, Republicans or Democrats,鈥� Kostiantyn says.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 want you to get the impression that the Ukrainian people are not grateful for all your help and support. You owe us nothing,鈥� he adds. 鈥淏ut the fact remains, if the U.S. and NATO allies want us to win, we need more 鈥� we need more for winning.鈥�

And winning is not what is happening for Ukraine on the battlefield today, where soldiers daily fend off dozens of Russian artillery, drone, and ground attacks, and have dug deeper defensive positions all along the front line.

鈥淭he worst thing for us is when the guys in the trenches ask for artillery support, because they are getting assaulted, and you just have to answer, 鈥榃e don鈥檛 have ammunition,鈥� and that鈥檚 just terrible,鈥� says squad leader Sasha. 鈥淓very shell can save some of our guys鈥� lives there.鈥�

The loss of Avdiivka 鈥� a city and Ukrainian front-line bastion since Russia first seized control of nearby Donetsk in 2014 鈥� was the first significant gain for Russia since last May. It was achieved with overwhelming Russian firepower and manpower, despite losses that appear greater than during the Soviet Union鈥檚 decadelong 1980s campaign in Afghanistan.

Russia鈥檚 鈥渟hell advantage鈥�

Oleksander Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine鈥檚 forces in the south, said in a statement that he had little choice but to withdraw from Avdiivka, citing an enemy 鈥渁dvancing on the corpses of their own soldiers with a 10-to-1 shell advantage, under constant bombardment.鈥�

Indeed, the Russian firepower advantage 鈥� and deep Ukrainian need 鈥� extends throughout the 600-mile front, where Russian forces fire 10,000 shells a day and have 4,000 artillery pieces in the country, compared with a rationed 2,000 shells a day fired by Ukraine鈥檚 350 artillery pieces, according to an analysis by Jack Watling, a senior research fellow of the Royal United Services Institute.

鈥淚n short, without artillery ammunition, the Ukrainians risk being fixed in permanent defense, slowly ceding ground as most recently seen in Avdiivka,鈥� Mr. Watling wrote in Time.

That was the experience of Andrii Rudenko, a combat medic wounded after the Avdiivka withdrawal Monday. He was hit by shrapnel from a grenade dropped by a Russian drone, which had picked up his heat signature while he ran from a position.

On Tuesday, Mr. Rudenko was in a bus full of wounded soldiers being evacuated westward to hospitals far from the front.

鈥淭he first point of difference between us and them is the urgent need for artillery,鈥� says Mr. Rudenko. 鈥淭he Russians can use their mortars again and again to get one man, but we have ammunition hunger.鈥�

As this war nears the start of its third year, he says, 鈥渘o one is very excitedly running around saying, 鈥榃e are going to go forward and advance.鈥� We are defending, and everyone understands that we are defending.鈥�

Eye on the House

At another artillery position in the Luhansk region, a few miles from the Russian trenches, a 105 mm howitzer is carefully dug in. The number of shells delivered overnight had dwindled by midmorning.聽

鈥淚f we had 100 rounds, we would have targets for them,鈥� says the commander of the battery, who along with others in the unit asked not to be named. Two Russian artillery rounds land nearby, forcing the soldiers to race to frigid bunkers dug underground.

鈥淎sk Biden, 鈥榃here are the shells?鈥欌�� calls out the battery鈥檚 gunner.

The commander points to their gun, which remains silent. 鈥淚f we had more ammo, that would be working now,鈥� he says.

A senior officer approaches a visiting American journalist beside the gun to ask, unbidden and in English: 鈥淲hat is your view of the House of Representatives on Ukraine?鈥�

Wrapped up to keep the cold at bay, the bearded officer is standing amid empty shell casings on the ground, which smell of smoke from the recent firings.

鈥淥f course we watch this [U.S. House vote], because literally our lives depend on this,鈥� says the officer. 鈥淚f they won鈥檛 help us, then we鈥檙e done. I can sum it up in one phrase: the more, the better.鈥�

Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.