Bracing for US election, Europe鈥檚 leaders seek to Trump-proof policies
Ukrainian servicemen attend anti-sabotage mock drills at the border with Belarus, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
London
Iowans this week braved record-cold temperatures to kick off the race for this year鈥檚 Republican presidential nomination. And their verdict 鈥� a comfortable win for Donald Trump 鈥� sent political shivers through America鈥檚 key allies in Europe.
Their immediate concern was what a second Trump presidency would mean for Ukraine. The Iowa result has brought a new sense of urgency to Europe鈥檚 efforts to find a 鈥淭rump-proof鈥� way of ensuring Kyiv has the arms and ammunition to keep fending off Russian forces, even if Washington were to back away.
But there is also a far deeper worry.
Why We Wrote This
Donald Trump鈥檚 Iowa caucus victory has concentrated European minds on the possibility of a second presidential term. They fear it, and they are not ready for what it might bring.
It is that the entire fabric of the decades-old trans-Atlantic alliance 鈥� involving trade and tariffs, defense and security 鈥� could unravel should Mr. Trump follow up his Iowa victory with further primary wins and ultimately return to the White House.
The key concern is NATO, the military alliance that has long provided bedrock security. Europe is still far short of having a credible Plan B, either for arming Ukraine, or to safeguard itself against an emboldened Vladimir Putin if Washington were to retreat from its European commitments.
All this may sound like the kind of apocalyptic scenario spun by pundits in search of a catchy headline.
But political leaders across Europe have been sounding the alarm in recent weeks as Mr. Trump鈥檚 front-runner status for the nomination has solidified.
The morning after the vote in Iowa, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo addressed the Parliament of the 27-nation European Union as his country assumed the bloc鈥檚 rotating presidency. A return to an 鈥淎merica first鈥� policy in Washington, he warned, would leave Europe 鈥渙n its own.鈥�
Others have been even more outspoken.
Late last year, Germany鈥檚 defense minister said a Trump victory would be a 鈥渃atastrophe鈥� for Europe.
Earlier this month, Thierry Breton, France鈥檚 representative on the European Commission, was quoted as telling colleagues of an exchange Mr. Trump had with the commission鈥檚 president, Ursula von der Leyen, in the final year of his presidency in 2020.
鈥淵ou need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and support you,鈥� Mr. Breton reported Mr. Trump as saying. 鈥淏y the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave; we will quit NATO.鈥�
Last week, the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, departed from her usual reticence on political matters to sound a warning of her own. Judging from Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term, she said, a return to power would be 鈥渃learly a threat鈥� to Europe.
Just look, she said, at his trade tariffs, his weak commitment to NATO, and his refusal to join the fight against climate change.
The prospect of a weakened NATO is especially alarming for the countries nearest Russia and Ukraine: Poland and the formerly Soviet Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
They are urging heightened military preparedness, warning that Mr. Putin鈥檚 rearmament drive could position him to threaten Europe鈥檚 eastern flank within the next three to five years, especially if he prevails in Ukraine.
A top Polish security official said recently that Europe urgently needed sufficient strength to 鈥渄eter [Russian] aggression.鈥� Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas echoed that message this week, calling for another critical deterrent: intensifying, not just maintaining, military support for Ukraine.
The momentum behind Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidential bid has focused attention on the critical role European countries may need to play in that effort.
There are some signs that they are taking the challenge seriously.
A British official told the London-based newspaper The Times that the United Kingdom and other European NATO members are 鈥渃ranking through the gears鈥� to ensure Ukraine continues to get the arms it needs, adding that Mr. Putin 鈥渃an鈥檛 be allowed to win ... just because Trump says 鈥榥o more dollars.鈥欌��
The EU has pledged to deliver a million urgently needed artillery shells to Ukraine by March.
European countries have accounted for around half of Western support for Ukraine since the February 2022 invasion. They鈥檝e also increased military spending. But outside of NATO, there is no effective mechanism for EU countries to plan, agree, and coordinate a joined-up defense policy.
That鈥檚 one reason the EU seems likely to fall well short of the promised number of artillery shells. The bloc needs to expand production more quickly. Besides, nearly half of all arms made in the EU are still exported abroad, to customers other than Ukraine.
There鈥檚 another problem, too. Europe at present cannot supply the amount of more advanced weaponry that Ukraine has said is essential to turning the tide against Russian forces.
Belgium鈥檚 prime minister gilded his post-Iowa warning that Europe might find itself 鈥渙n its own鈥� with an upbeat call to 鈥渆mbrace it, by putting Europe on a more solid footing, stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant.鈥�
Much the same message came from a leading businessman at this week鈥檚 annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Commenting on Ms. Lagarde鈥檚 worries about the effects of a Trump return, the vice chair of the world鈥檚 largest investment fund, Blackrock, said there might be a more positive 鈥渇lip side.鈥�
A Trump return could be 鈥渁 wake-up call for Europe,鈥� said Philipp Hildebrand. A spur for it to become more independent.
Because for the time being, he said, when it comes to defense, 鈥淓urope is just not there yet.鈥�