海角大神

Rattled by Ukraine war, Georgia wrestles with tighter societal controls

The cobbled streets of Tbilisi, the capital of the Caucasus republic of Georgia, have seen a lot of political turmoil since the fall of the USSR three decades ago.

But the current round of pitched battles between protesters and riot police near the country鈥檚 parliament, on picturesque Rustaveli Avenue, is the sharpest confrontation in many years between Georgia鈥檚 often fiery pro-Western opposition and the more conservative stability-oriented government, which currently holds a comfortable majority in parliament.

The most direct cause of the unrest is government-authored legislation that would require politically active civil-society groups and media that receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as 鈥渇oreign agents.鈥� That would subject them to curbs very similar to those that have been in effect in Russia for around a decade.

After two nights of violent protests, the government appeared to back down and announced that it will scrap the legislation. But because the Georgian parliament already passed the 鈥渇oreign agent鈥� bill on its first reading on Tuesday, it cannot kill it until its second reading, now slated for a plenary session on March 10.

The opposition says protesters will keep the pressure going in the interim. It's a clear sign that their dissatisfaction with what they see as the Russia-friendly government of the ruling Georgian Dream party 鈥� amid the regional strains of war in Ukraine and conflict next door between Armenia and Azerbaijan聽鈥� runs much deeper than just unhappiness over a single proposed law.

鈥淥ur government and parliament decided to adopt laws that have nothing democratic about them and are anti-European in their essence,鈥� says Murtaz Shaluashvili, an activist with the United National Movement, an opposition party founded by Mikheil Saakashvili, who himself led the 鈥淩ose Revolution鈥� 20 years ago that unseated pro-Russia president Eduard Shevardnadze. 鈥淲e consider these to be Russian laws, the same ones that destroyed democracy in Russia after they were introduced. Our authorities have the same intentions, and we do not trust them.鈥�

In the shadow of Russia鈥檚 war

Georgia, which fought and lost its own brief war with Russia over two breakaway territories in 2008, has long occupied a nether world between Russia and the West, with a majority of the population repeatedly expressing pro-Western aspirations and governments (including the current one) who want to steer the little country into the European Union.

But the war in Ukraine has illustrated the dangers of antagonizing Russia. At the same time, the influx of around 100,000 often highly skilled Russians fleeing military mobilization聽and a rush of entrepreneurs looking to reroute trade around Western sanctions, have provided Georgia with economic and political incentives to stay on the sidelines of the Ukraine conflict.

鈥淭he Georgian public is overwhelmingly pro-Western but, like any population, wants peace not war,鈥� says Tornike Turmanidze, a senior fellow at the Rondeli Foundation in Tbilisi, which specializes in strategic affairs. 鈥淩ussia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine has stimulated events. Before the war the Georgian Dream government tried to balance between Russia and the West, but that became difficult after hostilities began. They started warning that the West is trying to drag Georgia into the war against Russia, and using anti-Western rhetoric to play on the public mood.鈥�

In Moscow, commentators say that this week鈥檚 violent street clashes with police, which featured Wednesday night, only confirm the need for laws that limit the ability of foreign interests to fund radical civil-society groups and associated media. Some Russian experts say that yet another 鈥渃olor revolution鈥� instigated by the West is unfolding on the streets of Tbilisi.

鈥淧art of Georgian society is in opposition to the present authorities, about 20%,鈥� says Alexander Skakov, deputy director of the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow. 鈥淭hey only need a pretext to take to the streets and upset stability. The authorities have calmed the situation by withdrawing the legislation. Otherwise things could have gotten much worse, as they have in the past.鈥�

But some argue that the Georgian Dream party is acting, amid regional breakdown and war, to consolidate power by following the well-trodden path established by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia was in this position just over a decade ago, with authorities arguing that a draft law to compel foreign-funded civil-society groups to register as 鈥渇oreign agents鈥� and open their financial books was merely in the interests of public disclosure and transparency, and not an oppressive measure.

After a decade that has seen almost all Russian politically active civil-society groups shut down and most independent media driven out of the country, almost any critical conversation among Russians has become difficult and sometimes dangerous.

鈥淏asically, the Georgian Dream government wants to stay in power forever,鈥� says Dr. Turmanidze. 鈥淟ike any government leaning toward authoritarianism, they are trying to crack down on democratic elements of society.

鈥淎t the same time, they are trying to apply for EU candidate membership, and have been given a list of conditions that Georgia is expected to meet. They have not fulfilled these conditions, and this proposed legislation is in stark contradiction to EU requirements. Right now the government is trying to deceive the EU,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f they don鈥檛 get the candidate status, I think they will just carry on, and perhaps move closer to Russia.鈥�

Income from Russia

Ironically, the war has led to , up 74% in 2022. Several post-Soviet states, including Georgia, as well as big countries like India, have profited by helping Moscow to evade sanctions and import needed Western goods while buying large amounts of cheap Russian commodities in return.

Georgia has also benefited from an influx of Russian draft dodgers and business people seeking to maintain their Russian market connections while avoiding the impact of Western sanctions.

鈥淢ore than 100,000 Russian citizens came to live in Georgia in the past year, and they manage to get money in various ways, including crypto-wallets, which benefits the Georgian economy,鈥� says Dr. Turmanidze. 鈥淭heir presence is large enough to have become an economic fact. And our government is using this influx of money from Russia to justify better relations with Moscow. This is what worries the opposition.鈥�