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Ukraine鈥檚 candidacy for EU sends a signal. Now the hard part begins.

Until last week, Ukraine鈥檚 candidacy for membership in the European Union was far from a foregone conclusion.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for starters, made no secret of their lack of enthusiasm for the idea, with Mr. Macron suggesting that perhaps a lower-tier, non-member political alliance was the best way to go.

But after visiting Ukraine last week 鈥� surveying wreckage and graffiti that, reporters on the scene noted, implored 鈥淢ake Europe, not war鈥� 鈥� the leaders announced, in the face of political pressure and a desire, perhaps, to be on the right side of history, their support. And on Thursday, the bloc made Ukraine鈥檚 candidacy official, in a striking show of unity widely seen as a rebuke to Russia for waging a brutal war to keep the former Soviet republic under its control.

鈥淯kraine is going through hell for a simple reason: its desire to join the EU,鈥� European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted on the eve of the announcement. She later added that it would serve as a signal 鈥渢o the world that the EU is united and strong in the face of external threats.鈥�

But while the move to candidate status happened in record time, becoming a member is itself an arduous process that can take more than a decade 鈥� sometimes more than two. It entails meeting exacting requirements to, among other things, tackle the sort of deep-seated corruption that has long plagued Ukraine and other candidate countries.聽

The challenge for Kyiv in the months and years to come, analysts say, will be embarking on transformative reforms to enshrine human rights, a sustainable market economy, and rule of law throughout the country while fighting a war.

The challenge for the EU will be how to assure other candidate countries 鈥� including those who have suffered democratic backsliding in the midst of their yearslong efforts to join the union without success 鈥� that an offer to join the union is not an empty promise.

A big deal for Ukraine

In the Orange Revolution of 2004, Ukrainians took to the streets in a wave of civil resistance, protesting massive presidential election fraud and voter intimidation.

Europe was watching as the country ushered in changes in presidential election law and constitutional reform as Viktor Yushchenko 鈥� who survived a near-fatal poisoning while campaigning against the Kremlin-backed candidate 鈥� went on to serve as president from 2005 to 2010.

It was the beginning of talk about possible membership in the EU 鈥渋n a serious way,鈥� says Rosa Balfour, director of the think tank Carnegie Europe in Brussels.

A decade later, the Euromaidan revolution was sparked by then-President Viktor Yanukovych鈥檚 refusal, due to Russian pressure, to sign a widely popular free trade agreement with the EU.

It was the final straw for protestors angered by, among other things, government corruption and the influence of oligarchs. They occupied Independence Square in Kyiv and battled security forces, ultimately ousting Mr. Yanukovych.

Given this history, EU candidate status is 鈥渁 big deal politically and symbolically for Ukraine,鈥� says Bruno L茅t茅, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussels.

鈥淚t鈥檚 saying, 鈥楲ook, we want to reward you for years and years of reforms you鈥檝e been undergoing since [Euromaidan] revolution.鈥�

That said, it鈥檚 just the beginning of what promises to be, by most estimates, at least a decade-long process.

鈥淚 think often for people outside the EU, their view is, 鈥榃hat鈥檚 the big deal to join the EU?鈥� as if it鈥檚 like any other multilateral organization,鈥� says Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 like if Mexico decides to become part of the United States.鈥�

Countries who join 鈥� Croatia most recently became the 28th member nation in 2013 鈥� must tackle a massive to-do list that includes everything from judicial system reform to precisely what statistical parameters must be implemented when carrying out censuses.

Obligations for the EU

And while there鈥檚 broad backing within the EU for giving Ukraine candidate status, there鈥檚 no unanimity when it comes to support for actually making many candidate countries into members, says Mr. L茅t茅.

EU rules require unanimity on major policy decisions. This has led to embarrassing roadblocks due to the objections of a single member state.

鈥淭he EU is still structured the way it was structured when it had 12 member states,鈥� Mr. L茅t茅 says. 鈥淚t can鈥檛 function efficiently anymore.鈥�

Today, five countries 鈥� Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey 鈥� are candidates to join the EU. But many have concerns about how the addition of these countries鈥� people聽鈥� and now Ukraine鈥檚 40 million citizens too 鈥� could change the EU, with its 447 million inhabitants, from within, Mr. L茅t茅 adds.

For this reason and others 鈥� including failure to enact required reforms 鈥� movement on the candidate applications has been slow. In the interim, some candidate nations have experienced significant backsliding on basic democratic principles like rule of law.

鈥淭he challenge that countries, especially in the Balkans, have found is that once it became clear to them that actual membership wasn鈥檛 really in the cards anytime soon, the reform process starts to suffer,鈥� Mr. Bergmann says.

Turkey, which obtained its candidate status in 1999, is a notable example. North Macedonia has a leader who has made 鈥渧ery brave鈥� decisions in recent years, but, 鈥淲e should find a way that this bravery isn鈥檛 disappointed,鈥� German Chancellor Scholz recently warned.

The EU 鈥渉as not been good at rewarding countries who have carried out reforms,鈥� Dr. Balfour of Carnegie Europe adds.

As a result, candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova 鈥� which also received the offer this week 鈥� raises questions about what to say to countries that have been working towards membership for years and are becoming increasingly frustrated about the slow pace of accession.

The EU must ensure that in five years鈥� time, Ukraine and Moldova 鈥渄on鈥檛 find themselves in a situation of disappointment and disillusion,鈥� Dr. Balfour says. She adds that this could happen if the countries 鈥渄on鈥檛 see prospects of joining the EU as a goal, as a real anchor.鈥�

Still, after being accused for years of enlargement fatigue, the EU鈥檚 unanimous vote this week 鈥渋s testimony that the door is still open,鈥� Mr. L茅t茅 says.

It is also a vote for unity that will give beleaguered Ukrainians a vital morale boost that will serve as a mobilizing force, Mr. Bergmann says.

鈥淎re you fighting for a country that鈥檚 going to be perpetually wedged between the EU and Russia, always in a halfway house?鈥� he asks. 鈥淥r are you fighting for a future?鈥�