海角大神

As Afghan insecurity deepens, can Ghani government fight back?

The Taliban 鈥� now in control of about one-third of the country 鈥� have vowed to conduct an unprecedented spring offensive. But the government is trying to counter more effectively 鈥� good news to truck driver Sayed Jan.

Sayed Jan carries with him fresh mementoes of the stepped-up war in Afghanistan: His scarf is riddled with bullet holes. There鈥檚 the healing wound on his neck from the masked gunmen who shot up his truck cab. And聽his orange mobile phone carries the chaotic video of聽the full Taliban ambush that blew up tankers in his fuel convoy.

鈥淭here are always rumors of attack, but our armed escorts will never tell us,鈥� says Mr. Sayed about the attack on his convoy in northeast Kunar province. 鈥淎fter the fighting starts, then we know.鈥�

Ambushes like these may barely register on the daily incident report for Afghanistan, where聽a complex attack in the heart of Kabul killed 64 a month ago and garnered international attention.聽The heavily fortified capital聽has taken such blows before, but this one came with a sense that the Taliban detect new opportunities to sow chaos as they begin what they have said will be an unprecedented seasonal offensive.

The state of play poses tough questions for the West, where attention to Afghanistan has fluctuated聽during a decade and half of war.聽

Hopes were high that the war would disappear with the exit of most US and NATO troops by 2014, and that the new technocratic President Ashraf Ghani would usher in better and less-corrupt governance.聽Yet his unity government in Kabul is hobbled by corruption, gridlock, and shriveling Western interest and investment. Recent kidnapping attempts and other cases involving kidnapped foreigners have prompted the US to warn that the threat 鈥渃ontinues to be very high.鈥澛�

Numbers tell the story: Violent deaths nationwide have聽multiplied four-fold since 2013, to 15,000 last year, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Last year, the number of Afghan 鈥渋llegal migrants鈥� reaching the European Union聽reportedly聽hit an all-time high of 223,000.聽The Taliban聽control or have significant influence over more territory 鈥� perhaps one-third of the country 鈥撀爐han at any time since they were toppled from power in 2001.聽

President Obama is grappling with how to address a conflict he vowed to get America out of, and Afghan insecurity will be a top agenda item at the NATO summit in Warsaw in July.聽

Still, there are signs the government is taking greater action. After the Kabul attack, Mr. Ghani gave an uncharacteristically fierce response aimed at the Taliban and their Pakistani backers. Western officials say from 500kg to 900kg of military-grade explosives were used in the Kabul attack, sharply raising tension with Pakistan.

Afghan enemies 鈥渆njoy shedding their countrymen鈥檚 blood鈥� and the 鈥渢ime for unjustified amnesty is over,鈥� Ghani told a joint session of parliament. Those engaged in terrorism would be executed, he vowed, and six Taliban militants were put to death on May 8.

鈥淧eople are delighted that Ghani is finally ready to fight,鈥� says a Western official in Kabul who asked not to be named. 鈥淭his is definitely a populist turn by the president. It鈥檚 been one of the things he done that suggests he is going back to more traditional politics in some ways.鈥�

But such eye-for-an-eye politics has yielded limited success in the past. The Taliban have now escalated, too, claiming to have equipped 鈥渢housands鈥� of suicide bombers to 鈥渢ake immediate, bloody revenge.鈥�

鈥淭he Taliban aren鈥檛 saying, 鈥極h, gee, you are executing a few of our people. We鈥檒l be nicer now,鈥� says the Western official. "No, they鈥檙e promising revenge. It鈥檚 not a deterrent.鈥�

Still, that is not all the government is doing against the Taliban.

Afghan intelligence 鈥渋s really pouring money and weapons and resources into trying to fuel Taliban infighting,鈥� says the Western official. Reuters reported last week about an undercover, 300-strong unit fielded by the National Directorate of Security (NDS) in southern Helmand province.

Local officials claimed some success 鈥撀爄ncluding an intra-Taliban battle that left 30 fighters dead, reportedly prompted by the NDS unit 鈥撀燽ut the Taliban told Reuters they had 鈥渧ery strong intelligence, and find those who want to infiltrate our ranks.鈥�

The challenge for NATO members will be to recognize 鈥渉ow dire the situation is鈥� and decide what level to fund the Afghan military forces, which 鈥渋n reality are barely hanging on,鈥� and in need of foreign cash, says the Western official. Those forces are permeated with corruption, with 鈥済host [soldiers] in the ranks, and hollow units鈥� receiving salaries.

The Taliban have captured a key road in the south near Kandahar, and are moving forces as if in a bid to encircle their former stronghold. Learning lessons from bloody divisions of Islamic factions in the 1990s, the Taliban have also worked to keep unified by crushing or negotiating with opposing factions, since the announced death last summer of former leader Mullah Omar.

Hitting the most vulnerable

While attacks like those in Kabul dominate headlines, it is retail insecurity like the attack on Sayed鈥檚 convoy that spreads fear. Few Afghans remain untouched by the war, and his story illustrates how it can harm the most vulnerable.

When the Monitor first met Sayed in November 2015, his village in remote Kunar province had been taken over by jihadists of the self-declared Islamic State (IS). After being harassed and questioned, and seeing neighbors killed and their houses burned, Sayed decided to flee to Kabul, to prepare to extract his family one at a time so at to avoid alerting IS to their exodus.聽

Over the coming months, with the help of an uncle, the entire family, with nine children, managed to get to Kabul.

鈥淪everal times, IS asked my family: 鈥榃here is that man?鈥欌�� recalls Sayed, who in the past drove trucks for the US military from a base in Kunar. 鈥淲hen the family left, IS burnt our house鈥� I thank God my family is healthy, and left Kunar.鈥澛�

But cash was a problem, and the few dollars a day he made driving a taxi not enough. By contrast, the pay for tanker truck drivers in Kunar province was high: $400 for every convoy completed. His first convoy had barely been rolling 20 minutes on its 3 陆-hour journey from Asadabad to Jalalabad when the Taliban struck.

Most of Sayed鈥檚 video was shot from a ditch as vehicles burned, and panicking drivers called their families.

鈥淚f the soldiers can鈥檛 fight, they should give us their guns,鈥� shouts one driver.聽

鈥淪hoot the target!鈥� shouts another driver, at one soldier whose heavy machine gun barrel jerks randomly as he shoots. Such scenes may only embolden the Taliban, since they launched their 鈥渟pring offensive鈥� on April 12, vowing to 鈥渞enew our jihadist determination鈥� and 鈥渆mploy all means鈥�to bog the enemy down in a war of attrition.鈥�

鈥淪ome of the Taliban鈥檚 confidence can be seen in the growing accuracy of their statements,鈥� says the Western official. 鈥淭heir propaganda used to be wildly inaccurate. They would report battles when there were no battles, report casualties that were 10 times or a hundred times off reality. And now they are just getting more and more honest.鈥�

Please follow Scott Peterson on Twitter at @peterson__scott聽