Why the two Koreas may be giving up on reunification
A South Korean activist holds up a banner showing a photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean then-President Moon Jae-in (at right), during a rally to welcome Mr. Kim's possible visit to the South, in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 10, 2018.
Ahn Young-joon/AP/File
Seoul, South Korea
When it hosted the Winter Olympics in 2018, South Korea looked as though it might be on the verge of a breakthrough with its nuclear-armed, ballistic missile-obsessed neighbor. Athletes from North and South Korea marched together under one flag, highlighting an era of optimism between the two enemy states.
South Korea鈥檚 then-president, Moon Jae-in, seized the moment by shaking hands with the North Korean leader鈥檚 sister, Kim Yo Jong, at the opening ceremony. Photos of that historic handshake went viral in South Korea and beyond.
But the hopeful mood did not last long.
Why We Wrote This
Since the 1950s, governments in both North and South Korea have aimed to reunify the peninsula as one Korea. But Pyongyang has now given up on that goal, leaving the leadership in Seoul wrestling with the question of how to respond.
Relations between the two Koreas have once again soured. North Korea鈥檚 supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, has South Korea as a 鈥渉ostile state.鈥� Pyongyang, the North Korean capital and government seat,聽has also snubbed overtures from President Lee Jae-myung in the South, who in his inaugural speech last summer to 鈥渞eopen communication with North Korea and build peace.鈥�
Now, North Korea is believed to have dropped all mention of unification with the South from its constitution. South Korea鈥檚 unification ministry the shift earlier this month, leaving stakeholders in Seoul scrambling to adjust to the contours of a relationship that appears to have fundamentally changed shape, at least in terms of diplomatic rhetoric.
鈥淭his [policy revision] is one thing that I never thought would have happened, and there鈥檚 some people who still think it鈥檚 a bluff,鈥� says Michael Breen, author of 鈥淭he New Koreans: The Story of a Nation.鈥�
If there is a genuine existential shift under way 鈥� and officials in Seoul have been quiet on the matter 鈥� then experts say two contradictory possibilities lie ahead. Giving up on reunification could remove an incentive to keep talking and engaging with each other. But at the same time, mutual recognition could also end up lowering the temperature and reducing hostilities between these longtime enemies.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a double-edged sword that, if wielded the right way, could reap great benefits,鈥� including peace on the peninsula, says Youngshik Bong, a visiting professor at Yonsei University鈥檚 Graduate School of International Studies. 鈥淏ut if mishandled, it would just add to the current 鈥� confusion and danger.鈥�
End of the status quo?
It all goes back to the end of World War II. The Korean Peninsula, recently liberated from years of Japanese occupation, was split in half by the Soviet Union and the United States. Then, in 1950, Soviet-backed North Korea invaded the South, which was supported by the U.S.
By 1953, the Korean War had killed nearly 5 million people total, according to some estimates. The fighting ended with an armistice, not a formal peace treaty 鈥� meaning the two Koreas are still technically at war to this day.
For more than 70 years, both North and South Korea have insisted they are the sole legitimate steward of the Korean Peninsula, vowing to one day reunite it 鈥� ideally peacefully, but by force if necessary.
That long-standing status quo between the two Koreas could be entering a new era of uncertainty. In addition to dropping its goal of reunification, North Korean state media has also started to refer to the South by its official name, the Republic of Korea, in an apparent recognition of the country as a separate state.
鈥淔rom the moment these two countries were created in 1948, both were dedicated to reunifying. There has been no questioning of this commitment,鈥� Mr. Breen says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 part of their identity.鈥�
Yet, Kim Jong Un appears to be carving his own path for North Korea, no longer wedded to the goals of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, who founded the country and never gave up on reunification.
Kim Jong Un 鈥渉as been determined to become his own leader acting on his own terms,鈥� Mr. Bong says. 鈥淔rom the standpoint of his leadership, separation will provide stronger protection. South Korea does not have any justification to absorb North Korea if North Korea is no longer a part of it.鈥�
Experts say North Korea may also be trying to insulate itself from the cultural influence of its wealthier neighbor. For years, popular television shows and pop music from the South have been smuggled into North Korea, and that has poked holes in the state鈥檚 exceptionalist propaganda. The Kim regime expanded its use of capital punishment to crack down on foreign media consumption in recent years.
North Korea 鈥渒new the soft power of South Korea was going to destroy them by capturing the youth,鈥� Mr. Breen says. 鈥淎nd by making South Koreans foreigners, it鈥檚 a slightly different proposition.鈥�
Two separate states
In Seoul, reconsidering unification has been politically taboo, but it does appear that top officials are beginning to change their tune.
In September, South Korea鈥檚 unification minister, Chung Dong-young, made a comment that grabbed attention for its unusual candor.
鈥淚n reality, we are two separate states,鈥� he , for a moment breaking from the country鈥檚 official script about the North.
Mr. Chung quickly clarified that South Korea is still working toward 鈥渆ventual unification.鈥� South Korea鈥檚 national security adviser Wi Sung-lac then followed up with much clearer messaging. 鈥淭he South Korean government does not take a position of supporting or recognizing the two-state theory,鈥� he .
Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul and an expert on North Korea, says Pyongyang鈥檚 constitutional revision merely states the obvious.
鈥淲hat North Korea did is acknowledge the actual situation which has existed for decades, but has never been officially recognized,鈥� he says. 鈥淧eaceful unification 鈥� a compromise by two governments 鈥� has never actually been part of the goal. It was empty rhetoric largely designed to please Korean nationalist sentiment, but it has never been a blueprint for any practical course.鈥�
With sanctions and United Nations Security Council resolutions in place against North Korea, experts say Seoul has little leverage to entice Pyongyang into a new round of peace talks by offering financial rewards or the promise of economic cooperation, as it has done in the past.
Meanwhile, many South Koreans now see reunification as 鈥渦nnecessary,鈥� according to a . And that is largely because they worry about the economic burden that would come with it.
鈥淥n the surface, South Korea鈥檚 government says unification remains the most important national goal,鈥� Mr. Bong says. 鈥淏ut if that鈥檚 the case, the government has not been doing its job.鈥�
The world of sports is one area, at least, where mutual cooperation between the Koreas is still happening. This week, a soccer team from North Korea is in the South to take part in the AFC Women鈥檚 Champions League for the first time. The North Korean athletes are also the first to visit South Korea in more than seven years.