海角大神

What talks between Trump and Xi could mean for US-Taiwan trust

From the moment Air Force One touches down in Beijing Wednesday, Taiwan officials will be scrutinizing U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 every word. On his first visit to China in nearly a decade, what Mr. Trump says 鈥� or doesn鈥檛 say 鈥� could greatly impact the future of the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as part of China.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has already stressed directly to Mr. Trump that Taiwan is the 鈥渕ost important issue鈥� in U.S.-China relations. Indeed, one of the biggest questions looming over their visit is whether Mr. Trump will bend to pressure from Beijing to curtail American diplomatic or military support for Taiwan, breaking with decades of U.S. foreign policy.

Other U.S. allies in the Pacific will be watching, too. The talks鈥� high stakes can be summed up in one word: trust. Not trust between Washington and Beijing, which has proven elusive, but between the United States and Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and other longtime Asia partners who rely on Washington鈥檚 support to shore up their national security.

If Mr. Trump signals that he is going to pull back on U.S. support for Taiwan, it would raise 鈥渃oncern and anxiety about how much [Asian democracies] can still trust bilateral defense treaties with the United States if they come under attack,鈥� says William Yang, senior analyst for North Asia for the International Crisis Group (ICG) in Taipei.

That, in turn, could prompt these allies 鈥渢o start hedging more toward China,鈥� Mr. Yang adds, boosting Beijing鈥檚 influence in a rapidly growing, economically dynamic region.

Breaking precedents

Beijing has made it clear that Taiwan, the democratic island of 23 million people off China鈥檚 southern coast, will be high on Mr. Xi鈥檚 agenda for the talks, which begin Thursday morning and run until Friday afternoon. China鈥檚 Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, but claims the island as Chinese territory and has threatened to annex it by force.

On an international level, no country can maintain official relations with both Taiwan 鈥� formally known as the Republic of China (ROC) 鈥� and the People鈥檚 Republic of China. Doing so would contradict the Communist Party鈥檚 stance that 鈥渢here is but one China鈥� and Taiwan is part of China.

So in the 1970s, when mainland China began emerging as a major global market and critical counterweight to the Soviet Union, the U.S. and a flurry of other nations chose to terminate their ROC ties in exchange for normalizing relations with Beijing. Washington has walked a fine line on Taiwan ever since.

The U.S. acknowledges 鈥� but does not endorse 鈥� Beijing鈥檚 鈥淥ne China鈥� policy, and is committed to preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, which governs U.S. policy, Washington sells Taiwan arms as needed for the island鈥檚 self-defense. In recent years, and without abandoning the country鈥檚 long-standing policy of 鈥渟trategic ambiguity,鈥� presidents from both sides of the aisle have become more vocal about the need to defend the island鈥檚 autonomy.

Not so with this Trump administration.

In a February phone call, Mr. Xi stressed to Mr. Trump that China 鈥渨ill never allow鈥� the island to be independent, and warned Mr. Trump to handle U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with 鈥渆xtreme caution,鈥� according to official Chinese reports on the exchange. Days later, Mr. Trump told reporters he was talking to Mr. Xi about Taiwan weapons purchases, marking a departure from a 1982 U.S. policy assuring Taipei it would not consult with Beijing on such sales. The administration reportedly has also delayed announcing its newest arms package for Taiwan, an estimated $13 billion worth of air-defense systems and missiles.

鈥淚鈥檓 going to have that discussion with President Xi,鈥� Mr. Trump reiterated to reporters this week. 鈥淧resident Xi would like us not to [sell arms to Taiwan].鈥�

Taiwan depends heavily on U.S. arms sales, and scaling back those sales would 鈥渉inder Taiwan鈥檚 efforts to significantly increase its defense capabilities,鈥� says Mr. Yang.

Unlike his predecessor, Joe Biden, Mr. Trump has not vowed to defend Taiwan if China attacks. Rather than treat Taiwan as a democracy to be protected at all costs, Mr. Trump has attempted to use steep tariffs to secure more Taiwanese investment in the U.S., part of a broader push to address trade imbalances. And last year, his administration told Taiwan鈥檚 president, Lai Ching-te, to cancel proposed transit stops in the U.S. during a Latin America trip, again breaking with precedent.

In downtown Taipei, recent conversations with businesspeople, office workers, teachers, and retirees reveal some deep concerns about Mr. Trump鈥檚 transactional approach to Taiwan.

Declining trust

Realtor Hsi Chuyung bristles at the president鈥檚 abrupt demands on Taiwan, including pressure to invest billions in American microchip manufacturing.

鈥淭rump is talking about Taiwan stealing U.S. technology 鈥� saying you have to invest so much money 鈥� it鈥檚 outrageous,鈥� says Mr. Hsi, taking a break in his tiny office off a tree-lined Taipei street. He considers Mr. Trump greedy and a bully.

鈥淗ow can Taiwan people trust the U.S.? They can鈥檛,鈥� says Mr. Hsi, calling changes in American leadership under Mr. Trump 鈥渁 pity.鈥�

Polls of Taiwan鈥檚 public show that since Mr. Trump took office, mistrust of the U.S. and doubt in its willingness to back Taiwan in the case of a war with China have grown sharply, reversing the relative confidence expressed under the Biden administration. People also reported feeling less secure.

鈥淯.S. skepticism is on the rise,鈥� says Ming-sho Ho, a sociology professor at National Taiwan University. 鈥淭rump is doing China a service鈥� he says, by helping Beijing to 鈥渟piritually disarm Taiwan people and create a spirit of defeatism, so they can achieve their geopolitical aims.鈥�

Such sentiments may undermine Taiwan and its civil defense movement, which has surged in recent years in response to China鈥檚 more aggressive military incursions around the island as well as Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine. Research shows that people in Taiwan are significantly more willing to defend themselves against an attack by China if they believe the U.S. military will intervene. The vast majority of Taiwan鈥檚 people support maintaining the status quo of the island鈥檚 autonomy.

To be sure, views of the U.S. and Mr. Trump are mixed in Taiwan, and strongly follow partisan lines. Supporters of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which considers Taiwan a de facto independent country, hold more favorable opinions than do those who vote for the more pro-China Kuomintang, Taiwan鈥檚 main opposition party.

鈥淎 lot of people here criticize Trump, but I think he dares to act,鈥� says Huang Huiming, a Taipei school administrator and DPP supporter. 鈥淯.S. weapons are really amazing,鈥� she says, praising the U.S. military for pulling off a difficult rescue of two downed American airmen in Iran in April.

Taiwan鈥檚 strategic importance

China and the U.S. have long recognized Taiwan鈥檚 strategic importance.

The island produces the vast majority of sophisticated semiconductor chips, vital to everything from artificial intelligence to smartphones. It also lies along a critical waterway, the Taiwan Strait, through which a fifth of maritime trade passes. And it forms a crucial link in what is known as the 鈥渇irst island chain鈥� 鈥� a string of archipelagoes arcing north to Japan and south to the Philippines, that create a natural land barrier constraining China鈥檚 naval expansion into the Western Pacific.

Mr. Xi is executing a methodical, long-term strategy to claim Taiwan, using economic, military, political, and diplomatic coercion. He is betting that Mr. Trump will prioritize shorter-term goals in their talks, such as securing new deals for purchases of American products in areas like agriculture, aerospace, and energy.

To further its incremental squeeze of Taiwan, Beijing plans to ask Mr. Trump to publicly denounce Taiwan independence 鈥� a subtle but important shift from the U.S. stance that it does 鈥渘ot support鈥� independence for the island.

In Taipei and beyond, this would 鈥減robably [be] the worst nightmare,鈥� says Dr. Ho.

U.S. allies from Northeast Asia to the South China Sea will be watching closely to see whether Mr. Trump sticks to Washington鈥檚 established Taiwan playbook. But the president鈥檚 unpredictability has many on edge.

鈥淚f President Trump says something that could be construed as being more wobbly than what we鈥檝e had in the past, this could have a great impact,鈥� said Onodera Itsunori, Japan鈥檚 former defense minister and a member of the Japanese Parliament, during a talk earlier this month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Instead, he should firmly uphold the United States鈥� existing Taiwan policy, Mr. Onodera added. 鈥淔or U.S. allies, this will mean that the U.S. continues to be reliable.鈥�