海角大神

His own party calls him traitor. Can Japan鈥檚 new PM rebuild trust in politics?

Economic stagnation and a slew of political scandals have tanked the reputation of Japan鈥檚 long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Now its members must put their faith in a 鈥溾�� to build back trust.

Former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru officially took office as prime minister on Tuesday, days after the LDP, which holds a parliament majority, elected him party leader. The internal party election was one of the most competitive in recent history, and Mr. Ishiba鈥檚 narrow victory came as a surprise.聽

For decades, fellow lawmakers have held Mr. Ishiba in low regard due to his vocal criticism of LDP colleagues. A stint with an opposing party in the 1990s earned him the 鈥渢raitor鈥� label. Even now, some wonder if his fraught relationships with LDP heavyweights will weaken the incoming administration. But among smaller party chapters and the general public, Mr. Ishiba鈥檚 perceived integrity, vast government experience, and focus on rural revitalization have made him extremely popular.

鈥淢r. Ishiba is a steady hand鈥� for the party and Japan, says Tamura Shigenobu, a Tokyo-based political analyst and former LDP staffer.

The new prime minister has announced plans to hold snap elections for the lower house of parliament on Oct. 27 鈥撀燼 year earlier than required by law 鈥� in what many view as an effort to capitalize on his popularity and secure the LDP鈥檚 majority.

鈥淚 would like our administration to trust the public and win public confidence,鈥� said Mr. Ishiba shortly after he was sworn in.聽

Campaigning amid scandal

Since last November, a few party factions have been accused of failing to report revenue from fundraising parties and amassing millions of dollars in slush funds. The scandal led to the arrest of one LDP lower house member and the indictment of several lawmakers. Four cabinet members resigned, and this August, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced that he too would step down.

Cabinet approval ratings, which were above 50% when Mr. Kishida took over, have hovered between 20% and 28% since the scandal erupted, according to Kyodo News polls.

It鈥檚 an old pattern, says Yamaguchi Jiro, political science professor at Hosei University in Tokyo.

鈥淭he LDP has long-standing problems of money influencing politics,鈥� he explains. 鈥淲hen they face a barrage of criticism 鈥� they select a leader who looks relatively decent and get over the crisis.鈥�

The party spent weeks on its internal leadership election, which critics describe as a PR fest. The general public doesn鈥檛 vote, and the campaigns receive lots of friendly media attention. Candidates did not hold deep discussions on issues like rising living costs or Japan鈥檚 aging population.聽

Mr. Ishiba did, however, touch on foreign policy, vowing to 鈥減rotect Japan鈥� amid North Korea鈥檚 missile and nuclear programs and China鈥檚 growing assertiveness in the region. 鈥淭oday鈥檚 Ukraine could be tomorrow鈥檚 Asia,鈥� he said during the campaign, floating an idea to create Asia鈥檚 version of NATO.聽

鈥淗is NATO idea would definitely ruffle some feathers鈥� in Washington and parts of Asia, says Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, but it probably won鈥檛 matter much in this month鈥檚 election. Voters care far more about the economy.

Economic concerns and elections

One of the biggest problems Japan has to grapple with, says Mr. Kingston, 鈥渋s to clean up the mess left behind by Abenomics,鈥� the late premier Abe Shinzo鈥檚 signature economic strategy.聽

Business communities have, in general, loved the low corporate taxes, aggressive government spending, and other market-friendly policies that come with Abenomics. But not everyone is seeing the wealth. Today, many Japanese families are struggling to make ends meet as inflation and consumption tax hikes drive up costs of living, while wages stay the same.

Mr. Ishiba, a rare critic of Mr. Abe and longtime advocate for fiscal discipline, said during his campaign that he saw 鈥渞oom to increase鈥� taxes on corporations. This sparked a minor stock market panic Monday 鈥� the first trading day after Mr. Ishiba defeated an Abenomics evangelist in the LDP leadership race. The Nikkei falling nearly 5%, as investors sold off stocks in manufacturing and tourism companies.

The new prime minister鈥檚 pick for finance minister 鈥撀燗be administration veteran Kato Katsunobu 鈥� should help smooth things out.聽

During Mr. Kato鈥檚 own failed campaign for LDP leader, the former health minister promised to use Abenomics to double household income. His appointment today suggests that Mr. Ishiba is looking to reassure investors, and take a more balanced approach to economic growth, though the cabinet has yet to release a detailed plan for Japan鈥檚 economy.

Whatever the Ishiba administration comes up with, analysts expect the LDP to defend its majority in parliament. Not only is Japan鈥檚 opposition woefully fragmented, but Mr. Ishiba is building on a strong base of rural support, including in western Japan鈥檚 Tottori prefecture, where his constituency is located.

Okuda Satoshi, who manages the Chamber of Commerce in Tottori鈥檚 Yazu town, says Mr. Ishiba has always fought on behalf of Japan鈥檚 outer regions.

鈥淢r. Ishiba has earned the respect and the trust of local residents,鈥� Mr. Okuda says. 鈥淗e is clean and acts on his beliefs.鈥�