海角大神

How serious is the bombast from North Korea?

North Korea issued more heated rhetoric denouncing the annual US-South Korea military drills that started today.

Thousands of South Korean and US troops opened annual war games today against the background of strident rhetoric from North Korea.

The verbal blasts from Pyongyang appeared considerably more inflammatory than usual, raising searching questions as to the nature and intentions of a regime now ostensibly led by the untested third-generation heir to the North's ruling dynasty.

US and Korean analysts worry about the meaning of the threats from聽North Korea聽as the country鈥檚 youthful new leader Kim Jong-un asserts his authority in increasingly strong terms.聽The critical question is whether the rhetoric is just a somewhat louder version of the denunciations regularly fired by聽North Korea聽during war games before the death of Mr. Kim鈥檚 father, Kim Jong-il in December.

鈥淲e don't know if Kim Jong-un plays by the same playbook or by something wholly different given his lack of experience and the need to legitimize himself as a 鈥榮trong鈥� leader,鈥� says Victor Cha, who directed Asian affairs for the National Security Council during the presidency of George W. Bush.

Dr. Cha says he's watching 鈥渨ith greater apprehension any negative rhetoric coming out of the North. Before, we could chalk it up to typical North Korean tactics.鈥�

'Ready to fight'

Tensions escalated Monday as thousands of聽US聽and South Korean troops opened two weeks of war games.聽Pyongyang鈥檚 Korean Central News Agency declared its forces 鈥渞eady to fight a war鈥� in which 鈥渢he war mongers will meet destruction.鈥�

Kim Jong-un, in the role of 鈥渟upreme commander鈥� that he has had since his father died in December, vowed 鈥減owerful retaliatory strikes鈥� if聽US聽and South Korean troops enter North Korean waters.

Mr. Kim made the threat in a visit to a military unit by the Yellow Sea last weekend, evoking memories of the artillery barrage on nearby聽Yeonpyeong Island聽in November 2010 in which two South Korean marines and two civilians died.聽North Korea聽accused the South Koreans, who were conducting military exercises at the time, of opening fire on their territory.

By staging the current exercises, said the Korean Central News Agency, US and South Korean forces were 鈥済uilty of unpardonable infringement upon the sovereignty of聽North Korea.鈥�

The聽US聽command has been careful to stress the harmless nature of the exercises in which as many as 200,000 South Korean troops and several thousand Americans conduct exercises more often than not on computers. The command said the exercises 鈥� called Key Resolve 鈥� were 鈥渆ntirely non-provocative in nature.鈥�

North Korea聽fired its loudest rhetorical barrages after two days of talks in聽Beijing聽last week between the new聽US envoy on聽North Korea, Glyn Davies, and the veteran North Korean negotiator Kim Kye-gwan. Mr. Davies, stopping here on the weekend, said the talks were 鈥渟erious鈥� and 鈥渟ubstantive鈥� and had made 鈥渁 little progress鈥� but did not go into details.

Hot-and-cold rhetoric

A spokesman for聽North Korea鈥檚 foreign ministry, explaining the hot-and-cold nature of its rhetoric, said Monday the North was 鈥渇ully ready for dialogue and war鈥� 鈥� an ambivalent remark that suggested uncertainty among North Korean leaders.

It was North Korea, not the US, that requested the talks, apparently to see about getting direly needed food aid, but North Korean rhetoric indicated the North was not about to yield to demands for signs of giving up its nuclear program. Instead, on Saturday, the North put out a reminder of the danger posed by long-range missiles capable of carrying warheads with a statement to the effect that 鈥渢he聽US聽is sadly mistaken if it thinks it is safe as its mainland is far across the ocean.鈥�

Scott Snyder, director of US-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, assumes 鈥渢he two sides failed to come to terms鈥� in the Beijing talks but holds out hopes for eventually returning to six-party talks on the North鈥檚 nuclear program, last held in Beijing in 2008. The question, he says, is whether 鈥渟omething different has developed in聽North Korea鈥檚 leadership transition鈥� 鈥� possibly pressure to show military strength.

"North Korean rhetoric has always been way over the top,鈥� says David Straub, former聽Korea聽desk officer at the State Department. 鈥淩ecently, however, the tone and the threats seem, if anything, even more menacing.鈥�

In view of North Korea鈥檚 nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and 鈥渦ncertainties surrounding the new leadership, says Mr. Straub, associate director of Korea studies at Stanford, the US and South Korea 鈥渘eed to be even more militarily vigilant than usual.鈥� At the same time, he cautions, 鈥渢hey need to take care not to gratuitously offend or give excuses to聽North Korea聽by word or by deed.鈥�

Martial arts display

Against the backdrop of strident rhetoric from the North, the聽agency responsible for the president鈥檚 security put on the display of defensive expertise Monday.聽Martial arts experts battered one another, armored black limousines roared and screeched, and explosions crackled on cue聽in front of the聽Blue House, the office and residential complex of聽South Korea鈥檚 President Lee Myung-bak.

鈥淲e are well prepared to deal with any provocation. We are watching very seriously,鈥� says Eo Cheong-soo, chief of the presidential security service, as he watched his men.聽

Also in attendance was South Korean Lt. Gen. Shin Hyun-don, who said he was not worried. There was 鈥渘o sign of North Korean troop movements,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 always more of a threat. We go on preparing more defense.鈥澛�