海角大神

Can Fidel Castro still sway Cuba?

Fidel Castro debunked rumors he was dead in the state-run newspaper today. Some say that since he ceded control to brother Raul in 2006, US-Cuba relations are likely to remain unaltered when Fidel dies.

Thousands of words were penned over the past week on whether Cuba鈥檚 Fidel Castro had died.

The former and longtime head of Cuba himself lashed out today in a 546-word public letter in the : 鈥淚 don鈥檛 even remember what a headache feels like,鈥� he writes.聽His byline is聽accompanied by photos of him in a red- and blue-checkered shirt and straw hat.

But one reader, commenting on a 774-word New York Times article about the Castro health rumor mill, summed it up in less than 20: "Who cares?鈥� wrote 鈥淢ike" from Connecticut. 鈥淲hether Castro is alive or dead is .鈥�

In many ways "Mike" has a point, and perhaps the most apt one.

Of course the death of Fidel Castro will be huge worldwide news. But politically, will it make a difference?

Most observers give a resounding 鈥渘o.鈥� Cubans are not going to take to the streets. They didn鈥檛 do so when Fidel Castro fell ill in the first place and temporarily ceded control to his brother Raul Castro in 2006, nor when he permanently handed over power two years later. That means Raul Castro will stay in power, and US relations with Cuba are likely to remain unaltered.

And change has already come under Raul Castro, most notably on the economic front, and especially in new permissions granted to Cubans to start their own businesses. And most recently last week Cuba dropped exit visa requirements for residents, a huge symbolic move聽for the island nation.

鈥淔idel is still alive and his tongue is still sharp, but ,鈥� writes Cuban expert Philip Peters today on his blog 鈥淭he Cuban Triangle.鈥� 聽

Even Fidel Castro seems to take note of that in his piece today, ending it by saying: 鈥淪urely it is not my role to occupy the pages of our press, which are dedicated to other tasks that our country requires.鈥�

Still, history will not corroborate that sentiment when reviewing press coverage of October 2012. Twitter was ablaze with every detail of the rumor that he suffered a stroke, which was fueled in part by a Venezuelan doctor, who also predicted the imminent demise of Venezuela鈥檚 President Hugo Chavez earlier this year. (Mr. Chavez says he has recovered from his cancer, and just won another six-year-term in office in the oil-rich country, which is Cuba's most important ally today.) Editors around the globe聽dispatched reporters to keep an eye on the story, and dinner party conversations were dominated by Fidel Castro鈥檚 potential 鈥渄emise.鈥�

As Mr. Peter aptly notes in the first line of the blog: 鈥淔idel has done it again, making news just by being alive.鈥�