海角大神

Colombia鈥檚 presidential runoff puts citizen trust 鈥� and mistrust 鈥� on display

Colombian presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella wears a bulletproof vest when he makes public appearances. He speaks to his supporters while standing behind three panels of bulletproof glass.

He is taking precautions at a moment when political violence in Colombia is on the rise. But he is also playing to a key campaign pledge to bring an iron fist to the country鈥檚 insecurity.

When Colombia heads to the polls June 21, the region will be watching to see if the nation joins the right-wing surge across Latin America, with Chile, Honduras, and Costa Rica lurching to the political right over the past year.

The first-round vote May 31 was a close split between Mr. de la Espriella (43.7%) and leftist candidate Iv谩n Cepeda (40.9%). Mr. de la Espriella, a lawyer who also holds United States and Italian citizenship, says he鈥檒l take a zero-tolerance approach to crime and calls for an end to government peace talks with leftist rebels. Mr. Cepeda has pledged to carry forward some of the more popular social policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who served as Colombia鈥檚 first leftist leader.

But in a polarized country, Mr. de la Espriella鈥檚 appeal may also lie simply in who he is not: the incumbent.

Many voters here don鈥檛 talk about the candidate they prefer, but instead the one they mistrust less or fear less. It鈥檚 in line with a bigger trend of anti-incumbency in Latin America, where voters regularly swing from supporting the political left or right to contrast whomever is governing at the moment. And given the regional history of votos castigos, or 鈥減unishment votes,鈥� it鈥檚 perhaps little surprise that Mr. de la Espriella is polling in first place.

鈥淗e鈥檚 very detached from the political dynamic in Colombia,鈥� says Sandra Borda, a political scientist at Universidad de los Andes in Bogot谩. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 something that people are welcoming because there鈥檚 a lot of mistrust in the political establishment.鈥�

鈥淭he Tiger鈥�

Mr. de la Espriella has never held public office and is not a member of any of Colombia鈥檚 political parties. He got his name on the ballot by forming a committee last year and collecting almost 2 million signatures, meeting a requirement set for independent candidates by Colombian law.

Over the past two months, he鈥檚 managed to rally Colombian conservatives behind his campaign, displacing more experienced politicians from the largest political parties.

As Mr. de la Espriella pumps his fists in the air and warms up the crowd by asking them if they are 鈥渟teadfast for the homeland,鈥� he promises to kill criminals who don鈥檛 surrender to the government. He criticizes the current administration鈥檚 efforts to stage peace talks with rebel groups that have become more powerful in rural areas, and he says he wants the military to go after rebel leaders without restrictions.

His campaign is teeming with nationalist symbols 鈥� he greets audiences with a military salute and wears Colombia鈥檚 national soccer jersey in most appearances 鈥� and his approach resonates with many voters in a country where extortion, kidnappings, and attacks by rebel groups are on the rise. Outgoing President Petro reduced poverty in Colombia, but he has been criticized for being soft on crime. Mr. Cepeda is seen as a candidate of continuation.

鈥淭his is what we need now,鈥� says Jos茅 Hern谩ndez, a cattle rancher from Meta province, who watched Mr. de la Espriella speak at a public square in Bogot谩 earlier this month. He says he is forced to make monthly extortion payments to a rebel group that add up to around $700 a year.

鈥淲e need to take down the criminals鈥� who are taking everything from us, Mr. Hern谩ndez says.

鈥淭he Tiger,鈥� as Mr. de la Espriella calls himself, exceeded expectations in the first-round vote in May, coming in first, but falling short of the 50% required to win the election outright.

鈥淲hen you look at the peace processes that the government has tried to advance over the past four years, there are no concrete results,鈥� says Dr. Borda, who views Mr. de la Espriella鈥檚 lack of political experience as giving him a leg up within a frustrated electorate. In fact, he鈥檚 so far removed from Colombia鈥檚 political machine, he was living and practicing law in Florida before launching his campaign.

An anti-incumbent trend

Four years ago, Mr. Petro also benefitted from antiestablishment sentiment to become the nation鈥檚 first left-wing leader. He promised to take on the conservative establishment that long ruled Colombia and formed a government with representatives from social movements and labor unions.

During his time in office, he almost doubled the minimum wage, and he reformed labor laws to grant workers more overtime pay and made it harder for companies to hire employees on short-term contracts.

Those policies won him loyalty from a significant portion of voters who now back Mr. Cepeda. But Mr. Petro鈥檚 failure to tackle organized crime is tempering enthusiasm for his movement.

Over the past four years, rebel groups have expanded to dozens of municipalities in rural Colombia, where they tax legal businesses and profit from illegal mining and the drug trade. Cocaine production grew almost twofold between 2022 and 2024, according to United Nations estimates. And last year, the number of people displaced by violence doubled, reaching 235,000, according to the Red Cross.

Earlier this month President Donald Trump endorsed Mr. de la Espriella in a social media post. If he wins, that could mean a more fluid bilateral exchange of intelligence, says Jorge Restrepo, a Colombian security analyst. But he warns the candidate鈥檚 calls for a more 鈥渞epressive鈥� response to drug trafficking could hurt human rights.

Gladys Charcas, a community leader in Puerto Boyaca, has been working with the current government on a program to register the land of small farmers, but fled to Bogot谩 in March after receiving death threats from a drug-trafficking organization.

Even though the current government hasn鈥檛 succeeded in keeping her community safe, she says she鈥檒l vote for Mr. Cepeda because she worries a de la Espriella victory could 鈥渆mbolden鈥� right-wing groups that have historically attacked social movements.

Choosing the 鈥渓esser evil鈥�

Mr. de la Espriella has vowed to govern for 鈥渁ll Colombians,鈥� but his past work defending leaders of paramilitary groups accused of drug trafficking and human rights abuses raises doubts for some.

Andres Caro, a lawyer in Bogot谩, says his hesitations over Mr. de la Espriella鈥檚 commitment to democratic rule led him to back a more moderate candidate in the first round.

But in the runoff, he is leaning toward casting his ballot for 鈥淭he Tiger鈥� because he believes the alternative, backing Mr. Cepeda, 鈥渋s worse.鈥�

For the past two years, under Mr. Petro, the Historical Pact party has pushed to rewrite Colombia鈥檚 constitution to facilitate more economic reforms. Detractors worry it is a ploy to consolidate power, similar to Venezuela two decades ago.

Mr. Cepeda initially backed the idea of changing the constitution, but his party withdrew the proposal following its defeat in the May presidential vote.

Mr. Caro says he doesn鈥檛 feel he can take Mr. Cepeda at his word because many party members, including Mr. Petro, have said changing Colombia鈥檚 constitution is a central aspiration.

Mr. de la Espriella 鈥渋s the lesser evil in this election,鈥� Mr. Caro says. 鈥淚 prefer to face him under our current constitution than to elect a party bent on rewriting the rules.鈥�