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As U.S. stymies oil imports to Cuba, Mexico plays a balancing act

Amid a U.S. crackdown on international oil shipments to Cuba, the communist government there is estimated to run out of fuel by the end of March if no new oil tankers arrive, experts say.

Already, the U.S. measure is taking a toll: This week, all of Canada鈥檚 major airlines announced the cancellation of flights to the Caribbean island over a lack of aviation fuel inside Cuba. Other long-haul carriers are expected to follow, hitting Cuba鈥檚 tourism sector at a moment when the economy is deeply struggling.

In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has spoken publicly about the situation in Cuba almost daily since U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order that categorized Cuba as a national security threat and promised to impose tariffs on any nation sending oil to the island鈥檚 communist government. Mexico was Cuba鈥檚 largest oil provider in 2025, and says shipments are paused at the moment because of U.S. threats.

Cuba and Mexico have an historic relationship dating back more than 120 years, and that has put Ms. Sheinbaum in a difficult position as she tries to balance U.S. demands and Mexican foreign policy priorities.

Mexico 鈥渨ill continue to support鈥� Cuba and help it recover oil shipments because the United States 鈥渃an鈥檛 strangle people like this. It鈥檚 very unjust,鈥� Ms. Sheinbaum said in a news conference on Feb. 9. The day prior, two Mexican Navy vessels departed from the state of Veracruz carrying 814 tons of food and humanitarian supplies to Cuba, which is situated roughly 140 miles off the coast of Mexico.

The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Latin American governments under its new foreign policy approach, sometimes referred to as the 鈥淢onroe Doctrine 2.0鈥� or the 鈥淒onroe Doctrine鈥� 鈥� inspired by former U.S. president James Monroe鈥檚 approach to foreign policy involving the creation of spheres of influence, particularly featuring U.S. leadership in the Americas. The U.S. posits that the region is within its sphere of influence, and Mexico, sitting just south of the United States, has had to walk a fine line since Mr. Trump returned to power, responding to threats of tariffs and military action if Mexico doesn鈥檛 make changes the U.S. would like to see in security, immigration, and trade policies.

But Cuba is proving to be something of a sticking point.

鈥淐uba is a special relationship for Mexico,鈥� says Pia Taracena Gout, who teaches international relations at Universidad Iberoamericana聽in Mexico City. But in many ways, the relationship has been 鈥渢riangular,鈥� including the U.S., since the Cuban Revolution, says Dr. Taracena.

While the U.S. has had the communist nation under an economic embargo for more than 60 years, Mexico鈥檚 ability to disregard past U.S. calls to isolate Cuba has allowed Mexico to 鈥渟how its autonomy from the United States,鈥� she says.