海角大神

Venezuela hopes oil revival will ease economic woes. People want political change, too.

Just days before his ouster by the United States, Venezuela鈥檚 authoritarian leader Nicol谩s Maduro promised on national television that the country would move into 2026 by diversifying its economy away from a historic reliance on oil.

Within 48 hours, after a dramatic U.S. strike on the South American nation, Mr. Maduro was out. And it became clear that Venezuela would instead be sticking with the commodity that is so central to national identity that locals often breezily joked that it was cheaper to fill their cars than purchase a bottle of water.

Venezuela鈥檚 economy has been in shambles for more than a decade, a situation exacerbated since the U.S. placed sanctions on the oil industry in 2019 to put pressure on the Maduro administration for political change. Now, with Mr. Maduro gone, the U.S. is positioning itself to create 鈥渢remendous wealth,鈥� as U.S. President Donald Trump put it, for Americans, Venezuelans, and Big Oil.

On Jan. 29, interim President Delcy Rodr铆guez, who replaced Mr. Maduro after his ouster, announced a broad reform of the hydrocarbons sector that could help facilitate foreign investment. With some U.S. sanctions lifted since the strike, and the U.S. pushing oil majors to invest billions into the Venezuelan energy sector, Venezuela鈥檚 oil revenue is expected to grow in a way no one could have projected at the end of 2025.

But, after more than a decade of economic misery and authoritarian rule, the government has a short runway to show Venezuelans that their quality of life will improve under Ms. Rodr铆guez. Experts see many steps 鈥� from democratic strengthening to prioritizing humanitarian relief inside Venezuela 鈥� that are needed for an oil-centered solution to the Venezuelan crisis to be successful.

鈥淭he population wants a change in the status quo,鈥� says Giorgio Cunto Morales, a Venezuelan economist and lecturer at Andr茅s Bello Catholic University in Caracas. Nondiscounted oil sales could affect wages, temper inflation, and reestablish public services like water and electricity, but it won鈥檛 be a quick transition and likely won鈥檛 be enough, he says.

鈥淰enezuelans want improved living conditions, but not to make authoritarianism more tolerable,鈥� Mr. Cunto Morales says of ongoing restrictions on civil liberties and human rights. They want political change, too.

鈥淔ood is still expensive鈥�

Venezuela for years struggled with triple digit inflation, making the cost of even basic products like toilet paper out of reach. Venezuela鈥檚 gross domestic product has declined by more than 70% since 2013, when Mr. Maduro took over from his predecessor Hugo Ch谩vez. That鈥檚 the largest economic collapse in the Western Hemisphere for a country not at war.

On Jan. 20, Ms. Rodr铆guez, who had been Mr. Maduro鈥檚 vice president, said that the country had received $300 million in its first oil sales overseen by the U.S. She said that the cash would be moved into Venezuela鈥檚 banking system to cover citizen wages and to help protect the population against inflation.

Under U.S. oversight 鈥渢he idea has been sold to citizens that we are going to move forward, because [the Venezuelan government] is not going to steal the money anymore, and that the U.S. will administer the funds from oil sales,鈥� says G.S., an educator in Caracas, who asked to be identified by his initials due to ongoing government repression.

But, 鈥渇ood is still expensive,鈥� he says. That reality contradicts an overwhelming sentiment of hope that change is coming, G.S. says. 鈥淭here are a lot of expectations. ... We might be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel鈥� he says, but 鈥渋t鈥檚 a matter of time and patience鈥� before economic recovery becomes a reality.

Since Jan. 3, Mr. Trump has pushed U.S. oil majors to invest $100 billion in Venezuela鈥檚 oil sector, home to the largest proven reserves in the world. Also in January, more Venezuelan oil was imported to the U.S. than in any other month since December 2024, according to . China was the largest importer of Venezuelan oil before the U.S. began seizing Venezuelan oil vessels last year.

But one oil company told Mr. Trump on Jan. 9 that Venezuela is 鈥渦ninvestible鈥� without democratic improvements.

Doing business in Venezuela

Oil was nationalized in Venezuela in the 1970s, but Mr. Ch谩vez took the idea a step further. Foreign oil companies were required to enter into new contracts under his presidency, giving the state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA majority control in all operations. Two U.S. companies declined Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 terms, and left Venezuela. They weren鈥檛 compensated for their equipment or investments there, something that has spooked big oil companies about investing significant money into Venezuela in the short term.

Many see the January hydrocarbon reform as simply the first step of many to make investment less risky. The legal changes were fast-tracked through the National Assembly and steps back some of the strict nationalistic regulations at the heart of Venezuela鈥檚 oil sector over the past two decades.

鈥淭he head of the snake has been cut off, but the system is still in place. And I don鈥檛 mean just from a political point of view,鈥� says Jorge Pi帽on from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin of Mr. Maduro鈥檚 removal. 鈥淭he rules of the game have not changed鈥� around investment and ensuring money put into the country is safe from risks such as a change in leadership and resulting policy.

Although the U.S. has lifted some sanctions on Venezuela鈥檚 oil sector this year, the fact that the Trump administration has alleged drug trafficking and terrorism are funded by oil sales can make doing business tricky.

鈥淧DVSA is perhaps the most corrupt state-owned entity in Latin America. To do energy-sector work, companies are going to have to interact with PDVSA and then beyond that, extortion and bribery requests from local officials is constant,鈥� says Matteson Ellis, Latin America practice lead at law firm Miller & Chevalier. 鈥淭here haven鈥檛 been many international companies in Venezuela for so many years. It鈥檚 really an unknown landscape.鈥�

More than just economic change

Only 13% of Venezuelan respondents opposed the U.S. capture of Mr. Maduro, according to a Premise poll conducted for The Economist between Jan. 9-13 this year. The former bus driver and Ch谩vez acolyte came into office at the same time that global oil prices tanked. The economy went into a tailspin, and Mr. Maduro leaned into authoritarian measures to maintain control, imprisoning political opponents, and cracking down on freedom of speech, and other civil liberties.

The gap between the official and unofficial exchange rates has narrowed some since Mr. Maduro鈥檚 capture, which signals a level of price stabilization, but 鈥渢he economic situation remains just as terrible,鈥� says a Venezuelan human rights defender who is not identified due to the high risk of his work. But, he says, 鈥渢here is a window of opportunity to have political change.鈥�

Roughly 70% of Venezuelans polled by Premise/The Economist said they expect their family鈥檚 economic situation to improve by January 2027; more than 75% said the political situation would improve in the same time frame.

Mr. Cunto Morales, the economist, says Venezuela is in a moment where it鈥檚 facing a confluence of conflicting priorities. The U.S. administration is focused on stabilization and economic cooperation. But the Venezuelan government, run by a group of powerplayers from a long-standing political regime established under Mr. Ch谩vez, is interested in maintaining control, and possibly buying some time by alleviating economic pain among the population.

鈥淎ll those economic changes make no sense if there is not, at the same time, a process of freedom and democracy,鈥� says the human rights defender. Ms. Rodr铆guez announced on Jan. 30 that one of the most notorious detention centers known for torturing prisoners would be shuttered, and that legislation for amnesty for political prisoners has been proposed to the National Assembly.

鈥淭his is a window of opportunity for political change鈥� but it requires action now, he says.