海角大神

In Chile鈥檚 presidential vote Sunday, far-right candidate leads pack

Crime and immigration. These two issues are pushing an estimated 60% of Chileans to vote for the right wing in this weekend鈥檚 presidential election, after four years of leftist rule.

If the country does turn to the right, Chile will join a wave that is building strength across Latin America 鈥� including in adjacent Argentina and most recently in northern neighbor Bolivia.

On Nov. 16, Chileans will choose among eight candidates. Polls suggest that the conservative Jos茅 Antonio Kast 鈥� who lost to leftist President Gabriel Boric four years ago 鈥� will emerge to face left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara in a two-candidate runoff on Dec. 14.

While Ms. Jara, a former labor minister under Mr. Boric, might garner the most votes on Sunday as the result of the crowded field, analysts say her membership in the Communist Party will limit her broader appeal in the runoff.

Chile鈥檚 rightward shift, analysts say, appears to be driven by worries about weakening national identity and a belief that crime and immigration are behind that deterioration. In a recent poll conducted by the University of Chile, more than half of Chileans said 鈥渆xcess鈥� immigration is eroding national identity.

鈥淭he crimes that people are so worried about really are new to Chile,鈥� says Rossana Castiglioni, a professor of political science at Universidad Diego Portales in Santiago.

鈥淧eople see the drug gang slayings, the murders by hitmen, the kidnappings and other crimes that were unheard of a decade ago, and they say, 鈥楾his is not who we are,鈥欌�� she says. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 the right that has really focused on drawing the link between these new crimes and immigration.鈥�

Immigrants make up about 9% of Chile鈥檚 population of 20 million, up from 2% in 2005. Most of that increase took place over the past decade, with immigration up by about 290% since 2013. Though the number of crimes such as kidnappings and robberies has gone up, Chile鈥檚 murder rate has slightly decreased in recent years. Violent-crime rates in Chile remain relatively low compared with other South American countries such as Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.

Prosperity marred by inequalities

It was just six years ago that this traditionally calm Andean nation exploded in protest against mounting economic and social inequalities.

Three decades of stability and political accord around a free-trade-driven economic model had delivered many out of poverty and transformed Chile, at least statistically, into a middle-income country. But the years of impressive economic growth left Chile with one of the deepest divides between the wealthy and the struggling in Latin America, a region second only to Africa for sharp income inequalities.

The 鈥渆stallido鈥� or social explosion of 2019 was a revolt against the country鈥檚 elites and the closed economic, social, and educational systems that bolster inequalities.

In the view of some analysts, the underlying issue of inequality will also play an important role in the Nov. 16 vote.

鈥淭he one thing that Chileans across the board agree on is their discontent with the elites,鈥� says Patricio Navia, a Chilean political scientist and adjunct professor at New York University鈥檚 Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be this question of the elites that determines who comes out on top on the right and ultimately wins.鈥�

Mr. Kast benefits from the fact that he ran against former conservative President Sebasti谩n Pi帽era when he was the preferred candidate of the ruling classes in the 2017 elections, Dr. Navia says. 鈥淭hat has left Kast with an image of something of an outsider challenging the elites.鈥�

While Mr. Kast has abandoned some of the issues that made him unpalatable to a significant slice of Chilean society during his earlier campaigns 鈥� a strict anti-abortion stance, fiery opposition to women鈥檚 and LGTBQ rights 鈥� he has embraced tough positions on immigration and crime that play well with the broader electorate.

鈥淜ast realized that his focus on culture-war issues in the campaign against Boric was a losing proposition,鈥� says Jorge Heine, a former Chilean diplomat and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington.

Mr. Kast鈥檚 expected victory will be 鈥渓abeled a triumph of the far-right in Chile, but he鈥檒l win by positioning himself back toward the center,鈥� he says.

Chileans who would prefer another left-wing president say they see Mr. Kast鈥檚 likely triumph as a normal swing of Chile鈥檚 political pendulum.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of frustration over what didn鈥檛 change under the left, says Vicente Lizama, a first-year political science major at Universidad Diego Portales. 鈥淪o, now, people are saying it鈥檚 time for the right to have a chance.鈥�