海角大神

Chile tests its young leader. Can he be a model for Latin America?

The distinctive performance by the feminist group Matriadanzante (Dancing Motherland) draws an enthusiastic crowd on the main boulevard of the Chilean capital鈥檚 historical center.

As they sing and twirl in their bright red skirts and black shirts, each young woman has a small child strapped to her chest.

鈥淚鈥檓 raising children, not on vacation,鈥� some chant as they dance, followed by 鈥淢otherhood is a 24-hour job!鈥� from others. A hand-lettered sign delivers their political message: 鈥淪ustaining life is a collective duty.鈥�

Maybe it鈥檚 the ensemble鈥檚 with-it Frida Kahlo look, or the progressive overtones of the group鈥檚 messaging. But the young mothers certainly sound like they would be supporters of Chile鈥檚 new young president, the former student activist Gabriel Boric, who took office March 11.

And indeed, it seems they are 鈥� even as some express the same mix of expectation and impatience shared by other supporters of Mr. Boric in his first weeks on the job.

鈥淏oric is a symbol of fresh energy who wants to renew our politics and move our social conditions forward, and that is something our country needs,鈥� says Vernisse Nielsen, a mother of two sporting her group鈥檚 signature multicolored headband.

鈥淏ut we know he faces threats from the ultra-right just as we who support a feminist motherhood do,鈥� she adds. 鈥淪o while we remain hopeful, we also plan to keep dancing in the streets, to remind Boric we are here and what people expect of him.鈥�

Regional battle for the left

For the bearded and tattooed Mr. Boric 鈥� at 36, the country鈥檚 youngest president ever 鈥� the sky-high expectations for deep and rapid change from one side of Chile鈥檚 political spectrum are only half his problem.

On the other side he faces a skeptical conservative population, stretching from the country鈥檚 business elites to many middle-class families, that is shaken by the prospect of significant economic and social change imposed by the left.

That split leaves the youthful Mr. Boric walking a perilous tightrope, balancing between sustaining the hopes that propelled him into office and tamping down expectations 鈥� and fears 鈥� of quick and revolutionary change, some political analysts say. The high-wire act is one reason for what is being described as the steepest plunge in popularity by a new president in modern Chilean politics.

Moreover, the precipitous fall has also dimmed a star that just weeks ago was heralded as the model of a new Latin American left 鈥� one that could meet the pent-up aspirations of a struggling working class and activist youth without slipping into authoritarianism, as has occurred in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

With more Latin America countries 鈥� including Argentina, Peru, and Honduras 鈥� turning in recent years to leftist leadership, some experts say a regional battle for a dominant left-wing vision looms.

Indeed, if leftist presidential candidates win in democratic elections this year in Brazil and Colombia, one likely result will be a decadelong struggle for preeminence between solidly democratic left-wing governments and 鈥渢he more authoritarian-aligned [leftist] actors鈥� in the region, says Evan Ellis, Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College鈥檚 Strategic Studies Institute in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Plummeting support

But these days in Chile, the talk is less of the country as a model for regional leftist governance and more of a quick presidential fall from grace.

The country鈥檚 political divide, plus what some say were the inevitable mistakes of an untested leader with inexperienced advisers, also explains Mr. Boric鈥檚 short presidential honeymoon. Three different opinion polls taken in April show support plummeting and disapproval shooting up by 30 percentage points.

鈥淲hat these recent polls tell me is that a lot of the Boric voters from the [December] elections were not so much Boric supporters but were rather voting against the very right-wing alternative,鈥� says Andr茅s Rebolledo, dean of business and economics at Santiago鈥檚 SEK University and a former government official in international economics.

鈥淭his large group of voters has no loyalty to Boric or to his policy goals,鈥� he adds, 鈥渟o they have been quick to disapprove as mistakes were made or as policies that weren鈥檛 even necessarily his were discussed and played prominently in the media.鈥�

Mr. Boric rode into office in March on the crest of landslide December elections that seemed to confirm Chileans鈥� hunger for change. After all, the election of a young progressive president followed the strong 鈥測es鈥� vote in an October 2020 referendum on whether to replace the military dictatorship-era constitution.

That 鈥測es鈥� to a constituent assembly to write a new constitution followed the October 2019 social uprising that brought Santiago and other major cities to a halt and revealed a youth population tired of standing on the outside of Chile鈥檚 vaunted economic prosperity. 聽

Indeed, for decades after the end of the military dictatorship in 1990, Chile was consistently among the region鈥檚 top economic performers and a model of political stability, with political parties of the moderate right and left working together toward sustained prosperity.

But Chile鈥檚 free-market economic model, which was heavily dependent on international trade 鈥� and guided by a constitution favoring the interests of the economic elites 鈥� also resulted in one of the least equitable societies of Latin America.

Boric鈥檚 challenge: to govern

The uprising of 2019, the vote for a new constitution, and Mr. Boric鈥檚 election were all signs of deep dissatisfaction with the status quo, analysts say. But now some supporters of the idea of change are souring on the new president as he learns the ropes of governing, they add.

Mr. Boric鈥檚 rising unpopularity is also dragging down support for the new constitution, which is to be voted on in another referendum in September.

Some Chileans who didn鈥檛 support Mr. Boric in the election say he only has himself to blame for his plummeting popularity.

鈥淚 think of what [former President Sebasti谩n] Pi帽era said recently, that it鈥檚 one thing to criticize and to offer beautiful ideas, but it鈥檚 something else to govern,鈥� says Ignacia L贸pez, a public relations specialist with a Santiago energy company. 鈥淏oric showed his inexperience and scared some people with some extreme appointments to high-level positions.鈥�

Indeed, eyebrows rose across Santiago鈥檚 largely right wing-dominated media and among corporate elites when Mr. Boric named Maya Fern谩ndez Allende 鈥� granddaughter of former socialist President Salvador Allende, ousted from power (and killed) in the 1973 military coup 鈥� as his defense minister.

On the other hand, Mr. Boric鈥檚 leftist partners in his governing coalition, including the Communist Party, howled disapproval and publicly questioned the new president鈥檚 commitment to undoing the country鈥檚 neoliberal economic model when he named the widely respected former central bank chief Mario Marcel as finance minister.

Now a president who encountered adoring throngs as a candidate must count on hecklers (and even the stray rock thrower) at public events.

Core of support

But for the most part Mr. Boric鈥檚 left-wing supporters are sticking with him. At this year鈥檚 May Day march in central Santiago, no one in the mix of labor unions, youth organizations, environmental activists, and progressive groups like Dancing Motherland appeared to have turned hard against their bearded president.

鈥淏oric represents the yearnings for a new, younger, more inclusive, and widely representative Chile, but it鈥檚 not something everybody wants and so of course there will be difficulties along the way,鈥� says Juan Crist贸bal Cantuarias, a young lawyer who recently took a job in the city of Santiago鈥檚 law department.

鈥淏oric is profoundly socialist, but he also recognizes that not all Chileans agree with that, so he鈥檚 governing from a more pragmatic position that won鈥檛 force fast changes the country may not be ready for,鈥� says Mr. Cantuarias, who counts himself among the 鈥渞ealists on the left鈥� who understand that significant change can鈥檛 happen overnight.

Even a group of university students representing Chile鈥檚 young Communists appeared to be unanimous in their support for Mr. Boric.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not news that Boric is not a Communist, but he is for workers, he is for social justice, he represents the first opportunity in decades for change that will benefit the working class 鈥� so of course we support him,鈥� says Sofia, a social work major in Santiago who asked to use only her first name.

Some Chileans who are standing by Mr. Boric say they have their eye on the bigger prize of a new constitution, which they say will be the real measure of a more inclusive nation distributing opportunities and well-being more broadly.

鈥淧residents come and go, but a new constitution will define our path forward for decades to come,鈥� says Andr茅s Vel谩squez, a finance director for a small Santiago construction company who voted for the Communist candidate in the first round of presidential voting.

鈥淣ow that he鈥檚 in office I see Boric governing from the center-left, but his priorities are 100% in social issues like education, public health, and decent retirements, and of course the new constitution,鈥� Mr. Vel谩squez says.

鈥淏oric is facing pressures from the extremes on the right and the left on the constitution, but he understands the importance of delivering a document that includes all Chilean people and is more equitable than what it replaces,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚 think that鈥檚 something a majority of Chileans will support.鈥�