海角大神

Brazil鈥檚 democracy in peril? Bolsonaro鈥檚 military courtship raises concern.

A line of military tanks rolled through the heart of Brazil鈥檚 capital听on a recent morning, enveloped by a cloud of black exhaust smoke. From the marble steps of the presidential palace, President Jair Bolsonaro looked on听approvingly.

The Aug. 10 military parade,听unprecedented since Brazil鈥檚 1985 return to democracy,听came just hours before lawmakers voted on the far-right president鈥檚 proposal to bring back paper ballots, a proposal that critics say is aimed at discrediting Brazil鈥檚 electronic voting machines. Mr. Bolsonaro is seeking a second term in next year鈥檚 presidential election.

The parade, which drew criticism domestically and abroad, was seen as a not-so-subtle attempt at intimidating lawmakers. In that regard, it failed: Congress rejected the proposal. But it forms part of a pattern that has raised questions over Brazil鈥檚 democratic health.听

As COVID-19 continues to ravage Brazil and its stricken economy,听Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 popularity has tumbled to new lows听in recent months. Angry Brazilians have taken to the streets to call for his impeachment. The president, a former army captain, has responded by attacking other branches of government, sowing doubts over election security, and flaunting his increasingly cozy relationship with the armed forces.

鈥淏olsonaro is weaker than he鈥檚 ever been 鈥� and he is throwing all his cards on the table,鈥� says Marjorie Marona, a political scientist at the Federal University of Minas Gerais.听听鈥淚t鈥檚 a show of strength,鈥� but it鈥檚 coming from a place of 鈥渄esperation,鈥� she says.

Military wildcard

COVID-19 has killed 578,000 people in Brazil, a toll second only to the United States. Mr. Bolsonaro has repeatedly brushed off the severity of the health crisis, rejecting sanitary measures like face masks, social distancing, and lockdowns. His government also slashed emergency aid this year to millions of workers, an unpopular move. 听

In televised hearings, a parliamentary inquiry has dissected Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 handling of the pandemic, including a stream of corruption allegations that have tarnished his image as an anti-graft crusader. This includes an alleged kickback scheme in which听his government听sought to听buy millions of听COVID-19 vaccines at sharply inflated prices.

Only 23% of Brazilians believe Mr. Bolsonaro is doing a good or great job, according to an August poll by XP/Ipespe.

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 courtship of Brazil鈥檚 military has fueled worries that听he鈥檚 trying to rile up his core supporters and听lay the groundwork for a coup if he loses next听year鈥檚 election. While recent challenges to election results in the United States and Peru didn鈥檛 succeed, some experts say Brazil鈥檚 young democracy is more vulnerable.

鈥淭he risk here is greater,鈥� says Camila Rocha, a political scientist who has studied right-wing voters and Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 supporters. 鈥淪izable segments of the Armed Forces support Bolsonaro.鈥�

Walter Souza Braga Netto, an army general and Brazil鈥檚 minister of defense, has denied that this month鈥檚 parade was intended to intimidate lawmakers.听鈥淭he president considered it an homage. Because he is a president who honors the Armed Forces,鈥� he said.听

Mr. Bolsonaro has said he won鈥檛 accept the election results if he sees the vote as fraudulent. He recently threatened to cancel the elections altogether听if the voting system is not fixed, despite no evidence of fraud in past elections. 鈥淣ext year鈥檚 elections have to be clean,鈥澨齦ast month. 鈥淓ither we鈥檒l have clean elections, or we won鈥檛 have elections.鈥澨�

Mr. Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil鈥檚 Supreme Court, which is investigating the president鈥檚 role in spreading false information about the electoral process. He filed a lawsuit against the Supreme Court and even sought to impeach one of its judges, though the Senate shot down his requests last week.听听

The central question is whether the military will stand by Mr. Bolsonaro. Earlier this year, the听chiefs of Brazil鈥檚 army, navy, and air force jointly resigned, allegedly听in protest of Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 attempts to exert undue control over them.听Their replacements have closer ties to the president. 听

Mr. Bolsonaro has appointed thousands of former and current military officers to top government听posts. At least 6,100 staff members in his administration have a military background, more than double the number under听his conservative predecessor,听Michel Temer.听

鈥淲e already know that Bolsonaro doesn鈥檛 have limits,鈥� says听Jo茫o Roberto Martins Filho, a political science professor at the Federal University of S茫o Carlos and author of several books on Brazil鈥檚 military dictatorship. 鈥淲hat we still don鈥檛 know is how far the armed forces will go.鈥�

There鈥檚 cautious optimism听among academics听that the military will remain loyal to the country鈥檚 democratic institutions and that these bodies can remain听independent and听strong enough to resist any electoral听foul play. But Dr. Martins Filho warns that the military could resist a return to the political margins. 鈥淭hey will want to stay in power,鈥� he says.

And public faith in institutions has been shaken by years of corruption scandals, says Dr. Marona. This mistrust, which also applies to the electoral process, could play into the hands of a strongman like Mr. Bolsonaro.

The situation 鈥渉as only amplified this sense of not being represented, that democratic institutions don鈥檛 function well, that all politicians are corrupt,鈥� she says.听

Broken spell?

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 assaults on democratic institutions are not new.听During his 26 years in Congress, he often lamented the limits of democracy, waxed nostalgic about military dictatorship, and fantasized about shutting down Congress, calling it a system that 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 work.鈥�

鈥淭his discourse has always been Bolsonaro鈥檚 signature, and it was crucial to his election,鈥� says Dr.听Martins Filho. 鈥淗e presents himself as an outsider by questioning institutions.鈥�

Mr. Bolsonaro won over moderate voters in 2018 by promising to kick-start the economy. And his pledges to get tough on crime resonated in a country with one of the world鈥檚 highest rates of violent crime. An outsider status gave him a leg up, too: Brazilians were disillusioned after听more than a decade of leftist Workers鈥� Party (PT)听leadership.听

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 reliance on moves like the military parade may be alienating this more moderate demographic. 鈥淏olsonaro has this core base that鈥檚 really loyal,鈥� says Dr. Rocha. But trying to radicalize his base with claims of electoral meddling by opponents is 鈥渁 big gamble鈥� if it turns off moderates.

Vin铆cius Pedrada Coutinho says he voted for the president in the 2018 election runoff because听he was听an appealing alternative to the PT. He was drawn to Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 vows to put the economy back on track, but last month he lost his job as a supervisor at an appliance company.

鈥淲e were looking for a political renewal,鈥� says Mr. Coutinho. 鈥淲e were hoping for a new economic era. But he didn鈥檛 deliver on any of his promises.鈥�

Gean Perreira Santos, a security guard in Brasilia, the capital, says his concerns go further. 鈥淗e seemed like an authentic guy who spoke his mind,鈥� he says of casting his ballot for Mr. Bolsonaro. Now, 鈥淚t seems like what he really wanted all along was鈥� to stay in power.

With former President Luiz In谩cio 鈥淟ula鈥� da Silva 鈥� a divisive but still wildly popular figure 鈥撎�now free to run in next year鈥檚 elections, Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 position听is even more fragile.

Just 24% of Brazilians say they would vote for Mr. Bolsonaro in the first round of elections next year, according to the XP/Ipespe poll. Some 40% say they would cast a ballot for Mr. da Silva. Others say they don鈥檛 like either choice.

If there is no strong third option, Mr. Coutinho says he will spoil his vote. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to be responsible for Bolsonaro winning another term, I can鈥檛 have that on my conscience. But I also don鈥檛 believe in voting for the lesser of two evils.鈥�