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Political cost of coronavirus? For Brazil鈥檚 Bolsonaro, not much.

Ana Valeria Braga was just getting back on her feet after five months of unemployment when the coronavirus hit Brazil.

She landed a gig selling SIM cards on the street. But when the pandemic shuttered her central Brazilian city, Goi谩s, the single mother lost her new job, too. What saved her was a monthly government voucher of 600 reals听鈥� the equivalent of $110.

鈥淚t was a ray of light at the end of a tunnel,鈥� Ms. Braga says over the phone. 鈥淚t made all the difference. It meant I could pay the rent. It meant my son wouldn鈥檛 have to go hungry.鈥�

This emergency funding 鈥� which amounts to a little over half of a minimum monthly salary 鈥� has proved a lifeline for the nearly 63.5 million Brazilians who received it after having their livelihoods brought to a halt by the pandemic.

But the program, which launched in April, has also boosted the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro to new heights. He now has his highest level of approval since taking office in early 2019, despite what many deem a catastrophic handling of the pandemic. The far-right populist is presiding over the world鈥檚 third-largest outbreak of COVID-19, which has so far infected more than 4 million Brazilians and claimed the lives of 125,000. Since the start of the pandemic, he has dismissed the threat of the virus, calling it a 鈥渓ittle flu,鈥� and lambasted governors who try to shut down states.

Whereas other leaders who have taken a similar approach 鈥� from the United States to Mexico 鈥� have been punished in the polls for dismissing the pandemic鈥檚 severity, Mr. Bolsonaro appears to be weathering the storm and emerging politically unscathed.听

鈥淢any of those receiving this help see Bolsonaro as the only thing standing between them and hunger,鈥� says Brian Winter, vice president for policy at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. He says the voucher program has given Mr. Bolsonaro a boost among the country鈥檚 poorest citizens, a group that has historically supported Brazil鈥檚 leftist parties.

But downplaying the virus has 鈥渃ost untold lives,鈥� Mr. Winter adds.听鈥淎nd he may not pay a political price鈥� for those actions.

A 听showed Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 approval rose to 37%, from 32% in June. The number of Brazilians who disapprove of the president slumped to 34% from 44%. Almost , meanwhile, says he isn鈥檛 to blame for the toll of the pandemic.

Still, his newfound popularity has come at a hefty cost. The emergency voucher program has ballooned Brazil鈥檚 eye-watering public spending bill and deepened worries about the country鈥檚 already faltering economy, which has struggled to recover from a painful recession in 2015-16. Now, experts warn the country may be edging ever closer to a fiscal crisis.

This month, the government extended the program until the end of the year. But under pressure to trim costs, they slashed the amount of each handout by half, which could put his ratings at risk.

鈥淭here has been a huge impact, a huge rise in the incomes of these families,鈥� says Ecio Costa, an economics professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco in Brazil鈥檚 northeast. 鈥淒oes this policy bear fruit politically? Of course it does.听Whoever brought these families out of the misery they were living in will have political support,鈥� he says.

鈥淏ut there鈥檚 also a huge fiscal concern behind it.鈥�

Surge in popularity

When COVID-19 reached Brazil, the pandemic seemed poised to dwindle support for Mr. Bolsonaro. For weeks, Brazilians banged pots and pans at their windows each night, angry over the president鈥檚 handling of the pandemic. Two health ministers left his administration and motions for the president鈥檚 impeachment began to pile up.

But through each crisis, Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 core supporters听鈥� typically conservative, wealthier Brazilians preoccupied with issues like crime, corruption, and 鈥渢raditional family values鈥澨�鈥� have remained steadfast. He has kept their focus on the issues that got him elected: crime, the economy, and culture wars.

鈥淚t has kept his base very loyal and engaged. ... That base has stood by him all along,鈥� Mr. Winter says.

But the president鈥檚 repeated lambasting of quarantine measures has also resonated with frustrated informal workers, who make up 40% of the labor market in Brazil. Social distancing and quarantines听dealt devastating financial blows to those who clean homes, drive taxis, or sell fruit on the street.

鈥淭his is the public that benefits the most from a reopening of the economy 鈥� people working in service jobs, in informal work,鈥� says Cecilia Machado, an economist and professor at the Funda莽茫o Getulio Vargas. 鈥淗e is talking to an audience that is sympathetic to his ideas.鈥�

Meanwhile, the emergency aid 鈥� which Mr. Bolsonaro did not spearhead, and initially criticized as too generous 鈥� won the president new fans in regions badly hit by the pandemic鈥檚 economic toll.

Brazil鈥檚 poorest regions, 鈥渨here听there was strong rejection of Bolsonaro,鈥� according to Professor Costa, benefited most from the aid. He听 the program鈥檚 reach and found that in the northeastern municipality of Central do Maranh茫o听鈥� in one of Brazil鈥檚 poorest states听鈥撎齮he area鈥檚 economic output surged by a quarter following the implementation of the voucher program.

Mr. Bolsonaro鈥檚 popularity soared in the poorer north of the country, where social welfare programs like Bolsa Familia once fueled fierce loyalty to the leftist Workers鈥� Party ousted in 2016.

Jose Daniel Lima da Silva doesn鈥檛 like the president鈥檚 鈥渁rrogant鈥� comments about the virus or his refusal to wear a mask. He doesn鈥檛 credit the president fully for the emergency aid, but the locksmith from Recife 鈥� a city on Brazil鈥檚 northeastern coast 鈥� says Mr. Bolsonaro has done more good than harm during the pandemic.

鈥淭he truth is that he has helped people,鈥� says Mr. Lima da Silva, whose wife received emergency aid early on in the pandemic. 鈥淔inally, a politician who is giving to the people instead of robbing them.鈥�

Political opportunity

The emergency aid was initially supposed to last only a few months. But with the pandemic still ravaging Brazil nearly six months on, it was extended until December 鈥�听at an estimated cost of $16.8 billion.

The government has tried to tackle the bill by slashing the monthly payments by half. But the move has angered many of those who rely on it.

Before the crisis, Camilla Gomes received $30 in government assistance through the Bolsa Familia welfare program, which delivers cash transfers to poor Brazilians who send their children to school. But she also had income from her job as an office clerk at a university. When she lost her work due to the pandemic, the new emergency voucher became her family鈥檚 only source of income.

鈥淏olsonaro wants to lower the [pandemic] payment鈥� to $56, says Ms. Gomes, who lives just outside Rio de Janeiro. 鈥淗ow far is that going to go with three kids? Do I pay the bills or do I buy food?鈥� she asks.

鈥淐an he survive on that much?鈥�

Mr. Bolsonaro appears to be scrambling to keep cash in the wallets of needy Brazilians. The government is now mulling a plan to create a permanent voucher program, effectively rebranding and replacing the Bolsa Familia project that鈥檚 become synonymous with the country鈥檚 left.

Finding a way to continue the program may help him maintain support among the country鈥檚 poorest, but it could alienate his more traditional supporters, as demands grow to get the economy back on track.

鈥淚f he is seen as steering the economy in the wrong direction, it could cost him the reelection,鈥� says Professor Costa.

For Ms. Gomes, the former university clerk, the financial aid is not enough to put her support behind the president.

鈥淭his is all just to gain votes in the next election,鈥� Ms. Gomes says. 鈥淲e will see him as a good president only when he starts caring about the Brazilian people.鈥�