海角大神

After a deadly year, some Mexicans ask AMLO: When is change coming?

In the past week, David Flores says, he鈥檚 lost all hope for Mexico鈥檚 future.

Last Saturday, his dear friend Isabel Cabanillas de la Torre was shot riding her bike home in the northern city of Ju谩rez. The murder of Ms. Cabanillas de la Torre, a promising artist and young mother, comes on the heels of the deadliest year in Mexico鈥檚 recent history: On average 95 people were killed per day in 2019, .

President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador, commonly referred to by his initials, AMLO, was elected on the promise to end crime and corruption, and a new approach to fighting violence.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 want to say the situation was better before, but AMLO hasn鈥檛 presented any kind of hope or promise,鈥� says Mr. Flores, a social activist and artist who met Ms. Cabanillas de la Torre through his artist collective and bakery, Rezizte. Her death 鈥渋s proof that violence continues, even with AMLO in power.鈥�

On the campaign trail, AMLO spoke passionately about the need for respect for Mexican citizens, whose human rights have been trampled over the past nearly two decades as the military and organized criminals have clashed, with civilians often caught in the conflict. 鈥淗ugs, not bullets,鈥� he vowed, saying the root causes of cartel violence could be better combated with anti-poverty programs, drug detox efforts, and reintegrating criminals into society, not听militarized听confrontation.

But one year into office, and it isn鈥檛 just victims鈥� friends and families who say the situation hasn鈥檛 improved 鈥� some observers argue it鈥檚 getting worse, and that space for criticism is shrinking.

Strategies to fight crime appear unchanged 鈥� with the rollout of a National Guard last June that鈥檚 meant to eventually replace the military鈥檚 presence on Mexican streets, but is still听made up of members trained in the armed forces. The new head of the National Human Rights Commission, which is meant to be an autonomous body that investigates rights violations, has been the focus of controversy in her few months at the helm. In November, she questioned whether journalists have been killed during AMLO鈥檚 administration. There have been an estimated 11 such killings since he took office. And a recently proposed designed to combat soaring crime听has been accused of putting citizens鈥� rights at risk in the name of security and collaborating with the United States.

鈥淭here is no serious accountability,鈥� says Jos茅 Miguel Vivanco, director of the Americas division of Human Rights Watch, who was in Mexico City last week to launch the organization鈥檚 2020 world report. 鈥淭he approach to law enforcement and the war on drugs is pretty much the same prescription as the previous administration. And the risk is sending a message of impunity to security forces and organized criminals that will be taken as carte blanche for further abuses.鈥�

Watching for change

AMLO inherited a country suffering some of the worst homicide rates in the world and a dire human rights record. The government estimates that roughly 60,000 people have disappeared since 2006.

His administration has been lauded for working to identify the missing, announcing last spring there was 鈥渘o financial ceiling鈥� for the government鈥檚 search efforts. At , waiting to be identified.

And the president has continued to affirm a commitment to human rights. 鈥淭he state doesn鈥檛 violate human rights in these times; it鈥檚 no longer the main violator of human rights,鈥� Mr. L贸pez Obrador said in 听last Monday. 鈥淚t鈥檚 forbidden to violate human rights, and public servants must guarantee human rights and protect the lives of all people.鈥�

Despite important steps to identify Mexico鈥檚 long list of missing people, critics see few efforts to create concrete policies that might prevent future disappearances. They say his campaign promise of approaching violence with 鈥渉ugs, not bullets鈥� has not been fleshed out beyond the catchy name: 鈥渁brazos, no balazos鈥� in Spanish.

鈥淗e had the opportunity to start from zero to deal with the record of human rights atrocities鈥� committed over the past two administrations, Mr. Vivanco says. 鈥淎fter a year it looks like we are dealing with an administration that is not only unwilling, but uninterested.鈥�

President L贸pez Obrador has pinned much of the blame for Mexico鈥檚 violence on previous governments. And despite last year鈥檚 record death toll, he remains popular. In a November tally by pollster Buend铆a y Laredo, AMLO maintained roughly . But human rights organizations fear that a failure to take responsibility for today鈥檚 problems 鈥� even if they weren鈥檛 created by AMLO 鈥� presents further risks.

Local human rights organizations and advocates that saw AMLO as an ally before his election are now being pushed aside and ignored, says Carlos Bravo Regidor, a professor of history and politics at Mexico鈥檚 Center for Economic Research and Teaching.

鈥淥nce he came to power he operated under a very important distinction between 鈥榯he people鈥� and civil society,鈥� says Mr. Bravo. 鈥溾�楾he people鈥� are real Mexicans who he claims to represent and to understand. But civil society organizations,鈥� pressuring for action on human rights or corruption, 鈥渁re suddenly organizations that lobby for special interests or are influenced by foreign governments or money. They have no democratic legitimacy to him.鈥� It鈥檚 meant fewer opportunities for human rights advocates to discuss their agendas with this administration, he says, with the exception of a few key, high-profile cases, like the disappearance of 43 students under AMLO鈥檚 predecessor.

Mr. Flores, in Ju谩rez, says his collective has听been in the forefront of social action for over a decade, fighting for awareness around migrant rights and citizen abuses in Ju谩rez. For the first time, he says he feels vulnerable. If Ms. Cabanillas de la Torre, a relative newcomer to the collective who was involved in other groups as well,听was possibly murdered for her activism, as some fear, where does that leave even more visible activists like himself?

鈥淲e don鈥檛 have hope for justice, because in Mexico nothing is resolved,鈥� he says. 鈥淓ven with an investigation there鈥檚 no justice. And even with justice our Isabel won鈥檛 come back.鈥�