海角大神

Do referendums work? Questions rise after 'no' votes in Colombia, Hungary

On the rise over the past decade, referendums have been used to shore up political support and hedge politicians' bets. But do they oversimplify complex policies?

The merits of taking democracy directly to the people are getting a harsh rethink in the wake of two controversial referendums this week.

In Colombia, voters were told repeatedly that war was the only 鈥淧lan B鈥� if they rejected a deal to end five decades of armed conflict with FARC rebels. Yet Colombians did just that on Sunday, in a shock result compared with that of June鈥檚 鈥淏rexit.鈥�

On the same day, a continent away, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was confident his nation would reject the European Union鈥檚 mandate for all members of the bloc to accept asylum-seekers. He was right 鈥撎齟xcept that turnout was too low to validate the results.

Now, like the United Kingdom, both nations are confronting a period of political upheaval.

Referendums have been on the rise over the past decade, especially in Europe. From Britain鈥檚 plebiscite to leave the EU to questions over the size of EU membership and economic requirements for member nations, leaders have relied on the tool to shore up support for their parties or hedge their bets amid fraying political allegiances.

But while the votes are often heralded as the purest form of democracy, critics have panned them as politicking that reduces complex nuances into yes or no answers 鈥� posing risks to leaders who may underestimate the potentially monumental repercussions, especially if a vote does not go their way.

鈥淥n peace, on independence, on issues that are irreversible in some ways, I think it is reasonable that we go ask the people,鈥� says听Matt Qvortrup, a professor of political science at Coventry University and editor of the book 鈥淩eferendums around the World.鈥�

But, he says, 鈥渢he most important thing is that the people are not animals to be herded around鈥� 鈥� meaning that leaders need to time referendums carefully, prepare the populace, and not be overly dependent on the tool.

Misleading polls

In Colombia, polls confidently predicted that a popular vote on a deal to end a 52-year-old war with the nation's听largest and oldest guerrilla group, the听Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym FARC),听was all but guaranteed. It was widely supported internationally, receiving backing from the US White House to the Vatican.

But as was the case with Brexit, Colombians rejected the advice of the mainstream elite, revealing a degree of anger toward the FARC that was misunderstood outside of Colombia. It also served as a gauge, to some extent, of Colombia鈥檚 success against terrorism. For most Colombians, especially urbanites, guerrilla warfare is not a factor of daily life.

With the surprise outcome 鈥� and the extremely slim margin by which the No vote won (50.2 percent) 鈥� many Colombians are questioning the process of reducing a dense and complicated accord, signed Sept. 26, into a single question.听

For Adriana Ort铆z, a Bogot谩 shop assistant and mother of a FARC soldier, the question鈥檚 parameters were too black and white.

鈥淭he situation here is so very complex that an听either/or听answer doesn鈥檛 work,鈥� she says. 鈥淭hey should have told people more explicitly, if 鈥榊es鈥� wins听this,听this,听and听this听will happen,鈥� and if 鈥楴o鈥� wins,听this听will happen.鈥� 鈥澨�

Some famous diplomats would have agreed. Writing in Foreign Policy this summer, that former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and US diplomat George Kennan argued that foreign affairs should be the realm of the 鈥� 鈥檖rophetic minority鈥櫶齱ho understood what was in the best interests of citizens.鈥�

Still, foreign policy has increasingly been put to referendums. In Europe, according to Qvortrup's听data,听since 2000听there have been more than 40 on international matters, compared with 10 in the 1990s and three in the 1980s.

That is partially because domestic policies reach beyond national borders. The Brexit vote, for example, reverberates around the globe. Politics factors in as well: Leaders have relied on referendums to shore up their political base as party loyalties have become blurrier 鈥� and have learned that national votes can be used as leverage abroad.

Prime Minister Orban, for example, was trying bolster support at home as well as solidify his position as provocateur to Brussels,听says Hungarian political analyst Peter Kreko.

Seeing trees but not forest?

But voters often fail to see the larger geopolitical consequences, he adds.听Mr. Kreko听argues that many of the European referendums, from the vote in the Netherlands against the EU association agreement with Ukraine to various secession drives, have destabilized the continent and been a clear winner for Russia.

鈥淲e are living in times in which we can see many more bad examples of referendums than good ones,鈥� he says.

Leaders have turned to referendums for all kinds of undemocratic reasons, according to David Altman, an expert on democracy in Chile. In losing a referendum for constitutional reform aimed at re-election in Venezuela, the late President Hugo Ch谩vez simply said he鈥檇 hold another until he won, which he did in 2009.

But Mr. Altman also argues that categorical conclusions about direct democracy are flawed, and that referendums are less open to manipulation than is commonly thought. 听

In a , written after the Brexit vote, Altman said that in the 109 popular votes launched in Latin America over 40 years, 64 received the support of the population, while 45 did not, showing the autonomy of voters.听

The decision to hold a referendum on peace in Colombia was considered a middle way, between a 鈥渇ait accompli鈥� and a constitutional convention that could have rewritten the basic laws of the country, says听Adam听Isacson, a senior analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America. But it misfired for President Juan Manuel Santos, who threw his full political weight behind the effort.

Changes in how people consume news may account for some of the growing challenges that referendums pose. In an age of social media, where controversial issues like Obamacare, Brexit, or this peace deal are picked apart and opposed 鈥� often with half-truths or outright lies 鈥� leaders get thrown on the defensive, often over narrow points. 鈥淭hey lose the ability to communicate a vision,鈥� Mr. Isacson says. "It is easier to oppose than propose."

That makes education outreach even more important. Despite widespread circulation of the Colombian peace deal鈥檚 297-page final document, many say communication with the public was poor.

鈥淭he government, so engaged in getting to the point of wrapping up the negotiations, didn鈥檛 put enough time and effort in explaining what the peace accord actually said,鈥� says Lisa听Haugaard,听executive director of the Latin America Working Group in Washington.

Yet many Colombians, even those who supported the referendum, don't blame the tool used, and ultimately hope it serves democracy.听

Alejandro Michels, a lawyer and 鈥淵es鈥� supporter, says the outcome is fair.

鈥淲e have the opportunity to build a better peace, with greater public consensus,鈥� he says.

听