海角大神

Could generational change ease Brazil's politics of corruption?

As possible impeachment looms for Brazil's President Rousseff, some observers say the current travails could be a pivotal moment. 

As Brazil reels from protests and financial scandal, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff confronts a key milestone聽Sunday, when the lower house of parliament is expected to vote on whether to impeach her. Outside the building, a barrier is being erected to .

But whichever path the impeachment takes, some observers see a moment with the potential to transform the political scene, challenging entrenched corruption and ushering in a new breed of politician.

鈥淏ehind all of this, what you have in Brazil is a demand for accountability, people fed up with corruption,鈥� says Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in a telephone interview. 鈥淐orruption has been endemic in Brazil, but it really was put on steroids by the government of the Workers鈥� Party.鈥澛�

The Worker's Party of聽President Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known as Lula), is being hit hard by Operation Car Wash 鈥� a vast corruption investigation targeting politicians and executives who took bribes from construction companies in exchange for doling out contracts with Petrobras, the state-owned oil company. The party聽was founded as the party of ethics in the 1970s, making the charges even more galling.

While the Car Wash scandal has not implicated Rousseff directly, she is suffering from her party鈥檚 involvement 鈥� and the fact she was head of Petrobras from 2003-2010. If impeachment proceedings move ahead, Rousseff would be suspended from office and her vice-president, Michel Temer, would take her place.

This would hardly resolve the crisis of legitimacy facing Brazilian politics. Vice-President Temer is also in danger of facing impeachment for the very same budgetary misdeeds, not to mention comments leaked Monday in which Temer appeared聽.

鈥淚f the vice-president took over, he might well be perceived as a traitor who conspired against the government,鈥� says Claudio Couto, a political scientist and columnist based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in a conference call hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. 鈥淎nd that鈥檚 just one reason why his government would lack legitimacy.鈥�

Yet while many politicians are tainted by the scandal, some see a potentially pivotal moment for the country.聽

鈥淭here is no obvious knight in shining armor out there waiting to save Brazil,鈥� says Brian Winter, vice president for policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas, in a telephone interview. In spite of that, he聽considers the country to be 鈥渙n the verge of a tidal change in Brazilian politics right now,鈥� where we will see 鈥渢he old guard go out and new names come in.鈥�

A new dawn?

Brazil has been here before. In 1960, then-President Janio Quadros rose to power on an agenda of taking a broom to clean out corruption. But he resigned seven months later after a failed bid to get Congress to聽. The military seized power three years later. Some observers worry that any efforts at reform could, once again, fall at the first hurdle or fail to dig deep enough.

But it is possible the sheer scale of today鈥檚 scandal will prompt real reform, says Scott Desposato of the University of California, San Diego, though he urges caution in hoping that it will.

鈥淢uch of the progress on corruption has come from career prosecutors and sometimes judges, not politicians,鈥� says Dr. Desposato, associate professor of political science, in an e-mail interview. 鈥淧erhaps just as important as new elites, is new mass attitudes. There is a less-government, lower-taxes discourse in some of the protest. That might help with corruption. But it isn鈥檛 clear yet where it will go.鈥�

These new mass attitudes are embodied by today鈥檚 youth and middle class, say analysts. Ironically, they come from a generation inspired by the Workers鈥� Party鈥檚 early ideals to uphold the rule of law.

There are also politicians who share these less traditional outlooks, say observers, though most of them are at the municipal or state level. Roberto Motta, for example, is a member of Partido Novo, 鈥渁 new centrist, practical聽party with a small government narrative鈥� as described by Desposato, and may run for mayor of Rio de Janeiro.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington D.C., also points to the mayor of Curitiba, Gustavo Fruet, in southern Brazil, as an innovator, though 鈥渨hether he has national aspirations鈥� is another question.

鈥淏razil is going through a very difficult period, but when it gets out on the other side, you鈥檙e going to see a new kind of politics, a new generation,鈥� says Mr. Shifter in a telephone interview. 鈥淚t鈥檒l be much cleaner鈥� In the long run, this is healthy for Brazil.鈥�

And while none of the major parties is likely to emerge from this tortuous path unscathed, Desposato points to some new, smaller parties, representing an 鈥渋deological spectrum of smaller and less intrusive government,鈥� potentially reducing the scope for corruption.

But Filipe Campante, associate professor of public policy at Harvard University, is skeptical that there is necessarily a promising new generation of cleaner politicians.

鈥淏ut if you want to be optimistic about things, you notice there鈥檚 not talk of, for example, military intervention鈥�. Everyone is trying to play the game within the bounds of current institutions,鈥� Dr. Campante says in a phone interview. 鈥淪o, if you look at the situation from a historical perspective, or you compare it with other countries at a similar level of development, it鈥檚 positive, a source of solace.鈥�