海角大神

Could Panama 'reelect' a president whose name isn't on the ballot?

President Martinelli is constitutionally banned from running again. But analysts say his party's ticket - made up of his wife and a handpicked successor - is 'essentially a Martinelli government.'

Marta Linares has managed to overshadow Panama's hotly contested presidential election while hardly saying a word.

The mother of two, whose greatest political achievement is opening a center for autistic children in the capital, is the wife of current President Ricardo Martinelli. She's also his party鈥檚 vice presidential candidate in the most closely watched presidential vote in two decades.

The Constitution bars President Martinelli from running for reelection until five years from now, though he鈥檚 said he would like to change that. It also bans a sitting president鈥檚 blood relatives from seeking the nation鈥檚 top two jobs, though there are lawyers who argue spouses are a legally gray area.

Some see the prospect of another de-facto Martinelli presidency as too close to a history that Central America鈥檚 most cosmopolitan nation, sandwiched between Costa Rica and Colombia, thought it had left behind. Panama's two decades of military dictatorship still resonate here, and since the United States deposed drug-running Gen. Manuel Noriega in 1989, Panamanians have never elected the same political party for two consecutive terms.

Analysts call it Panama鈥檚 most important election since the dictatorship鈥檚 end.

鈥淒emocracy is in jeopardy,鈥� says Roberto Eisenmann, former director and founder of Panama鈥檚 opposition newspaper La Prensa.

鈥淚f Martinelli repeats through this covered-up re-election, we fear we鈥檒l be back in civilian dictatorship mode,鈥� Mr. Eisenmann says.

Martinelli鈥檚 handpicked successor for his Democratic Change party is a relative political novice as well. Jose Domingo Arias聽runs his father-in-law鈥檚 clothing company, and was the housing minister in Martinelli鈥檚 government.

Many say it鈥檚 simply a way for Martinelli, a supermarket magnate, to cling to power until he can run again. Ms. Linares鈥檚 notable absence on the campaign trail, which her husband has dominated, has only cemented that perception.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no question that Martinelli will remain very influential,鈥� says Risa Grais-Targow, a Latin American analyst at Eurasia Group, which projects a narrow Arias win as voters go to the polls today. 鈥淎n Arias government is essentially a Martinelli government.鈥�

It鈥檚 a familiar narrative in Latin America. Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, wife of deposed Honduran president Manuel Zelaya, ran for president last year, but lost. Argentina鈥檚 Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner replaced her husband, Nestor Kirchner, as president. Many believe Rosario Murillo, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega鈥檚 wife and spokeswoman, is the real force behind his administration.

In Panama there are grounds for concern because, 鈥渢here鈥檚 very little check on Martinelli鈥檚 power,鈥� says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington DC.

Eisenmann, who was exiled twice for speaking out during Panama鈥檚 dictatorship under the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), has gone to surprising lengths to avoid an Arias victory. He and a group focused on removing Martinelli are supporting the PRD, and they say their research shows its candidate, former Panama City mayor Juan Carlos Navarro, is most likely to defeat the incumbent party. Polls show Mr. Navarro is just behind Arias, though the race is practically neck-and-neck.

Panama鈥檚 Vice President Juan Carlos Varela, who publicly fell out with Martinelli halfway through his administration, represents Panama鈥檚 center-right Panamanista Party and is third in the polls, though he鈥檚 made significant gains in the past week.

'Vote against corruption'

During Martinelli鈥檚 term, Panama notched double-digit economic growth rates, largely credited to an ambitious $15 billion public investment program, including the $5.25 billion expansion of the Panama Canal and the construction of Central America鈥檚 first metro, which Martinelli unveiled last month. He gifted free rides until after the election.

Voters give Martinelli a 60 percent approval rating. Most analysts expect a continuation of his policies, including more infrastructure projects and social programs, such as paying Panamanians above 70 years old $120 a month. Though economic growth has slowed, the World Bank still expects it to be Latin America鈥檚 highest this year at around 7 percent. Unemployment last year was at a record 4.1 percent.

This is an election not of policy, analysts say, but on Martinelli鈥檚 personality. Supporters say the unconventional self-made millionaire, who campaigned by calling himself "el loco," or 鈥渢he crazy one,鈥� has slashed the bureaucracy that bogs down many Latin American countries and accomplished 鈥渕ore in four years than 40,鈥� Martinelli鈥檚 favorite catch phrase.

Even so, there are still problems in Panama. The capital city is full of gleaming skyscrapers that often invite comparisons to Dubai, however, many seem empty or half-built. It leads some to believe that Panama hasn鈥檛 yet shed its reputation as a money-laundering hub, including for Colombian drug cartels.

Outside of the capital, home to about a third of Panama鈥檚 3.8 million people, many live in poverty. The gap between rich and poor is one of the greatest in Latin America.

Critics say Panama鈥檚 weak justice system worsened under Martinelli, who now controls both the legislature and the judiciary, appointing three of five supreme court justices. The World Economic Forum rated Panama鈥檚 judicial independence at 132 out of 144 countries it evaluated in 2012.

Martinelli鈥檚 government has also faced accusations of accepting kickbacks in exchange for lucrative contracts, though he's dismissed such claims. Still, Panama slipped from 83rd to 102nd place in Transparency International鈥檚 annual corruption ranking last year.

鈥淎 vote against Martinelli is very much a vote against corruption,鈥� says Ms. Grais-Targow, the Eurasia analyst. 鈥淐orruption is an issue in Panama normally but it鈥檚 become a much more pronounced issue under Martinelli.鈥澛�

Voters say rising inflation is their biggest concern. Jessenia Gonzalez, an administrative assistant and mother of two, says food prices are skyrocketing. She also worries about the weak public health and education systems, noting she and her husband, a taxi driver, break their budget to afford private options.

Though she loves Martinelli鈥檚 metro, which cut her crippling commute, it鈥檚 time for a change, Ms. Gonzalez says.

鈥淧anamanians have suffered a lot to live in democracy,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e have to treasure that.鈥�