Arms, drugs, and human trafficking: What does the future hold for northern Mali?
A new unity government was formed in Mali this week, though it remains unclear whether it will be successful in restoring constitutional rule in the Tuareg-held north.
鈥⒙犅�A version of this post appeared on the blog The views expressed are the author's own.
A complex series of events in recent months has transformed the vast region of Northern Mali from a site of occasional, low-intensity ethnic conflict within an otherwise functional democracy into a lawless arena for competition among rival militant groups.
The degeneration began with a January 2012 rebellion by ethnic Tuareg separatists. Although their can be traced back at least to the French colonial period, the immediate catalyst for the present uprising seems to have been the return of battle-hardened Tuareg , where they had fought for the ousted government of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. As the new conflict wore on in February and March, there was frustration within the Malian military over the government鈥檚 perceived inability to aid its own troops and stop the uprising in the north. Mutiny and a coup ensued, leading to disarray in the country鈥檚 leadership. President Amadou Toumani Tour茅 was forced into hiding. Amid this chaos on the government side, the rebel National Movement for an Independent Azawad (MNLA) was able to make unprecedented gains in the northern region. On April 6, the MNLA the creation of an independent Tuareg state, declaring, 鈥淢ali is an anarchic state. Therefore we have gathered a national liberation movement to put in an army capable of securing our land and an executive office capable of forming democratic institutions.鈥�
Armed conflict makes for strange bedfellows. As the MNLA captured more territory, it formed a partnership with the . Frequently, Ansar Dine would enter cities that had already been captured by the MNLA, tear down the Azawad flag, and raise a black Salafist flag in its place. Eventually the MNLA realized that Ansar Dine had made off with its revolution.
Although the region鈥檚 borders were already poorly monitored, the breakdown of order has created an especially permissive environment for the trafficking of arms, drugs, and human beings in the region, and some armed groups have engaged in kidnappings. Meanwhile, Ansar Dine and its arbitrary application of a crude form of Sharia (Islamic law) have devastated the local populations and their centuries-old Islamic cultural heritage. Numerous residents have endured lashings after being accused of . Those who dare to protest such abuse have also been . In at least one case, a couple was by Islamist militants for supposedly having children out of wedlock. Nearly from the region. Increasingly grave food and water shortages only compound these problems, as do reports of and the presence of the Nigerian terrorist group .
The brutal strain of Islamism, the complete disintegration of human rights, and the attacks on cultural monuments鈥攊ncluding the of revered Islamic scholars and the 鈥攈ave prompted to the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. Columbia University professor Gregory Mann has such analogies, particularly if they are used to justify an ill-considered foreign intervention. However, it seems clear that an entrenched Ansar Dine, along with its allies, would continue to have a profoundly destructive effect on Northern Mali and its entire population.
among the Malian government and international actors including the United Nations and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has held up the . Algeria, whose military is one of the most powerful in the region, seems reluctant to abandon diplomacy for armed force, even though seven in Northern Mali. In the absence of help from their government and the international community, local residents have begun forming militias to protect themselves from Ansar Dine and the other militant factions, but they could serve to exacerbate the region鈥檚 human rights problems and ethnic divisions. that members of the militia group Ganda Koy are attacking and killing Tuaregs. A was formed in the capital today, though it remains unclear whether this government will be more successful than its predecessor in restoring constitutional rule to either the north or the south.
If the crisis is to be resolved, ECOWAS, the United Nations, and democratic states more broadly will have to develop a coordinated message and strategy. Each day that they fail to do so brings more strife and misery for the people of Northern Mali. The country鈥檚 neighbors have much to lose from the status quo, and much to gain from a successful restoration of democratic rule. Indeed, the situation offers a perfect opportunity for countries like Senegal to remind the world that vibrant democracies are emerging in West Africa and are capable of resilience in the face of perennial threats like ethnic unrest and Islamist militancy.
As events have unfolded, there has been a tendency among some foreign observers to view the north as a Tuareg region, raising the possibility of a settlement that would leave the MNLA in charge there after the ouster of Islamist extremist groups. In fact the region鈥檚 population is composed of several ethnicities, including , and the idea of a united, democratic, multiethnic Mali has not lost its appeal. By means of social media, Malians of all backgrounds have been coming together to reclaim their national motto:聽鈥�.鈥� As the international community works with the Malian government to address the crisis, all parties should bear in mind the desires of the public, and the likelihood that a Mali united would be stronger, safer, more stable, and more prosperous than a Mali divided.
鈥� Brendan Harrison is a Program Associate at .