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Presidential limbo in South Africa: Why Zuma's appeal persists

The African National Congress has been in power since the end of apartheid. Party leaders are keen to replace scandal-laden President Zuma ahead of their toughest election yet. But if frustrations with Mr. Zuma are telling, so is his lingering support.

鈥淯uuummmshini wam, uuuummmmshini wam!鈥�

On a hot day last December, the familiar melody rippled across the cavernous hall, pulling delegates at the convention of South Africa鈥檚 ruling party to their feet with whoops and cheers. The tune was an old anti-apartheid struggle song, 鈥淎wulethu Umshini Wami鈥� 鈥� 鈥淏ring Me My Machine Gun鈥� 鈥� and it was being led by the man who had made it famous again: the country鈥檚 president, Jacob Zuma.

As Mr. Zuma鈥檚 deep, gleeful voice belted across the room, the moment seemed to encapsulate the strange turning point at which his party, the African National Congress, suddenly found itself.

On the one hand, Zuma, whose administration has been scarred by corruption and economic mismanagement, was quickly becoming a pariah within the ANC, which has ruled South Africa uninterrupted since the end of apartheid in 1994.

A few minutes after his song and dance, the party would announce that it had elected as its next leader a man who in many ways is the anti-Zuma 鈥� a buttoned-up businessman named Cyril Ramaphosa, who speaks a crisp, formal English and promises to woo back international investors. When general elections roll around in mid-2019, the ANC hopes Mr. Ramaphosa will win back voters disillusioned with Zuma鈥檚 scandal-laden presidency.

At the same time, however, the crowd鈥檚 reaction to Zuma鈥檚 trademark wiggle was a reminder that he is still in many ways the heart of South Africa鈥檚 beleaguered ruling party 鈥� a folksy former liberation fighter with no formal schooling who promises 鈥渞adical economic transformation鈥� for the country鈥檚 impoverished masses.

Fast forward two months, however, and the ANC seems to have firmly decided which way to turn. It is away from the president 鈥� who, it seems all but certain, will give up that title within days. Over the last week, the ANC鈥檚 executive committee began back-room negotiations to gently compel Zuma to step down, more than a year from the end of his term.聽

But if his eventual ouster speaks to South Africans鈥� deep frustrations, his staying power until now is equally telling. South Africa, after all, was a nation under white rule until just 25 years ago, where the president鈥檚 complicated history reminds many voters of their own.

Party future on the line

While no timeline was given for the resignation, Zuma made the extraordinary step Tuesday of agreeing to cancel the annual State of the Nation speech he was scheduled to deliver Thursday, signaling to many that he is preparing for his exit. In a press release Wednesday, meanwhile, Ramaphosa alluded to conversations he had with Zuma about 鈥渢he transition鈥� and promised a 鈥渟peedy resolution of the matter in the interests of the country and its people.鈥�

For the ANC itself, however, the decision to recall its own leader is a gamble with unprecedented odds.

The party, once part of the country鈥檚 liberation movement, has won every national election since the end of white rule. For many voters, it is synonymous with a democratic South Africa.

But in 2016 local government races, the ANC聽unexpectedly lost control of several major cities, including Johannesburg. That, coupled with the rise of powerful opposition parties from both the right and left, leaves the ANC facing its most uncertain national election yet next year.

And Ramaphosa, a union boss turned business mogul who helped lead the negotiations to end apartheid, is widely seen as the party鈥檚 best hope to right its course.

鈥淗e started a trade union, he鈥檚 educated, he appeals to white liberals, so he ticks a lot of boxes,鈥� says Nomavenda Mathiane, a retired political journalist. 鈥淗e offers hope to people who want to see the ANC return to its former glory.鈥�

Controversial 'everyman'

But ousting Zuma also risks alienating many of his supporters, who have long viewed the president as a victim of the ANC鈥檚 political in-fighting, says Sithembile Mbete, a political science lecturer at the University of Pretoria.

鈥淗e is incredibly charismatic and appeals to a certain notion of the South African 鈥榚veryman,鈥� 鈥� Ms. Mbete says. 鈥淧eople see in him someone, who like most South Africans of his generation, didn鈥檛 have the chance to be educated but still rose to political prominence against the odds, and that鈥檚 a powerful story.鈥�

That feeling of being victimized, she notes, is also part of Zuma鈥檚 story, and it鈥檚 a narrative he has built into his appeal from the start. When Zuma was dismissed as vice president in 2005 over corruption accusations, and soon after put on trial for rape, he told supporters the charges were nothing more than an attempt to undermine his political career. During his rape trial, hundreds of supporters gathered outside the Johannesburg court burning pictures of his accuser and . Zuma was acquitted, and his accuser was later offered asylum in the Netherlands.

鈥淭his story of victimhood explains why even today he still has a great deal of power and pull,鈥� Mbete says. 鈥淭he reality in South Africa is that the majority of people in this country have been victimized for 400 years, so it鈥檚 easy and natural to see how they could support a man they also feel has been a victim.鈥�

That, in turn, has helped the president outrun a number of massive scandals across the course of his presidency. For years, for instance, he dodged the charge that he had used government money on upgrades to his personal home. When asked why South African taxpayers paid for his swimming pool, Zuma coyly explained that it was a 鈥渇ire pool鈥� constructed as a safety measure. (The country鈥檚聽powerful anti-corruption ombudsman, Thuli Madonsela, eventually compelled him to pay back a portion of the cost).

The scandal that eventually became his undoing was his long-standing connection to three Indian businessmen in South Africa: Atul, Ajay, and Rajesh Gupta. In recent years the brothers have been implicated聽 with government, including allegedly arranging for the president to fire the country鈥檚 finance minister and replace him with someone sympathetic to their business interests.

In late 2016, Ms. Madonsela聽 detailing the Guptas鈥� interference with South Africa鈥檚 government, and accused Zuma of turning a blind eye.

'Things just started spiraling'

For many both within and outside the ANC, this was the final straw.

鈥淧eople knew that the government had been captured, but this was irrefutable evidence,鈥� Ms. Mathiane, the journalist, says. 鈥淭hings just started spiraling.鈥�

Calls from the country鈥檚 political opposition to unseat Zuma mounted. Last week, the Economic Freedom Fighters party successfully petitioned Parliament to schedule a vote of no confidence in the president in late February. If he lost that vote 鈥� a possibility, if some of the ANCs legislators voted against him 鈥� he would be forced to resign immediately.

Many speculate that the current negotiations between Zuma and the ANC鈥檚 top leadership are designed to offer him a more graceful exit.

But turning over a new leaf for the party won鈥檛 be as simple as deposing one leader for another, she says. Instead, it will rest on how many voters decide to retain a loyalty that for many transcends personalities or even policies.

For Beatrice Letlepe, a retired high school geography teacher in Johannesburg, that allegiance runs back to her childhood, when she watched her father slip out of their village one night to join the ANC in exile fighting apartheid. Today, she lives in a formerly white suburb of Johannesburg called Brixton, something in those days she never imagined would be possible.

鈥淲hen I hear young people like my daughter complaining about the ANC, I tell them 鈥� you didn鈥檛 grow up under apartheid, you don鈥檛 remember what it was like then,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 still vote for the ANC because where we are now 鈥� they are the ones who fought for it. They placed us here.鈥�