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For Iran, a new ceasefire means big gains. But Trump鈥檚 war goals fall short.

The ceasefire deal inked by the United States and Iran on Wednesday, aimed at bringing an end to their costly and destructive war, has been touted a strategic victory by the Islamic Republic 鈥� while coming up short on achieving U.S. goals articulated by President Donald Trump.

The grants Iran sizable economic incentives in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and for Tehran鈥檚 assurances 鈥� as it has done for many years 鈥� that it will not develop a nuclear weapon.

Mr. Trump touted the 14-point plan to end the war, which he launched jointly with Israel in a surprise attack against Iran on Feb. 28, while a previous round of negotiations was underway.

But the provisions of the new memorandum of understanding, or MoU, fall far short of Mr. Trump鈥檚 original stated goals of toppling the Islamic Republic: destroying its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and regional network of proxy forces; and forcing Tehran into 鈥渦nconditional surrender.鈥�

Instead, Iran can immediately begin selling oil, with complete sanctions relief, and access a reconstruction fund of 鈥渁t least鈥� $300 billion after a final deal is reached that would impose strict limits on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.

The document opens a 60-day window for the U.S. and Iran to address core nuclear and sanctions issues. It commits both sides to the 鈥渋mmediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,鈥� and reopens international shipping through the Strait, which was fully open before the war.

Israel was not a party to the deal, and analysts say a key vulnerability is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 continued fight against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

Also unmentioned is Iran鈥檚 arsenal of ballistic missiles, which has been used to repeatedly target Israel and Gulf states hosting U.S. forces. Mr. Trump said on Wednesday it would be 鈥渦nfair鈥� to leave Iran defenseless, without missiles.

An illustration on the front page of Iran鈥檚 conservative Hamshahri daily captured the mood in the Islamic Republic. It showed Mr. Trump literally eating his words, by chewing on paper with a list of initial war objectives, under the headline, 鈥淕one with the wind.鈥�

Tehran鈥檚 top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said Wednesday that the deal proved Iran鈥檚 victory. Mr. Qalibaf is the speaker of Iran鈥檚 Parliament and one of the highest-ranking officials to avoid assassination during the war.

鈥淚n the West, they have described the MoU as America鈥檚 defeat,鈥� he told the state-run IRINN channel. 鈥淭his is their own wording.鈥�

鈥淲e obtained through negotiations many times over what we sought to achieve through military actions,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he two are not even comparable.鈥�

The war reportedly killed at least 3,400 people in Iran alone, sent global energy prices surging, cost the U.S. tens of billions of dollars, and depleted American air-defense missile stocks.

The results of the MoU can鈥檛 yet be compared with the 2015 nuclear deal signed under President Barack Obama, which imposed strict, carefully monitored limits on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and was signed by a total of seven countries alongside the European Union. Mr. Trump described that as the 鈥渨orst deal in history,鈥� tore it up in 2018, and has vowed that a new deal will be a much stronger 鈥渨all鈥� that will prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon.

For this 60-day ceasefire, Iran insisted on including an Israel-Hezbollah truce in Lebanon. Iranian officials say a 鈥渞ed line鈥� for them is a renewal of Israeli strikes against targets in and around Beirut. Israeli officials, however, say they will not withdraw Israeli forces from southern Lebanon or halt their attacks.

鈥淓ven in the very best scenario, where this memorandum leads to a comprehensive deal and sanctions are removed, as long as the conflict between Iran and Israel is there 鈥� and that means as long as the Islamic Republic is there 鈥� the Israelis are not going to stop, Iran is not going to stop,鈥� says Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin.

Lebanon is the most likely flash point, Mr. Azizi says, and more broadly, the Iran-Israel conflict might 鈥済o back to the gray zone area鈥� of mutual, low-level provocation that prevailed for years before 2023.

鈥淭his trauma of the past year, two wars initiated right in the middle of negotiations, is still there 鈥� so there is no trust, they think it could happen at any moment, that Trump changes his mind and restarts this war,鈥� he adds.

Indeed, speaking near Paris, where Mr. Trump signed the interim deal during a visit to the Palace of Versailles, the president once again threatened Iranians with the use of military force.

鈥淚f they don鈥檛 honor that, we鈥檒l probably go back to bombing them until they honor it, you know? It鈥檚 amazing what bombs can do,鈥� Mr. Trump said Wednesday.

Mr. Trump indicated that economic pressure helped force his hand.

鈥淚 didn鈥檛 want to see economic catastrophe,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f you kept this going, that could have happened.鈥�

Signing on behalf of Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian called the MoU a 鈥渉istoric document.鈥�

鈥淧eace will be achieved in the shadow of mutual respect,鈥� he wrote on social media.

Also included in the text of the MoU is free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels 鈥渇or 60 days only,鈥� after which Iran 鈥渨ill conduct dialogue鈥� with Oman, and other Gulf states, about 鈥渇uture administration and maritime services鈥� 鈥� a nod to Iran鈥檚 new wartime demand to charge fees for safe passage.

鈥淭rump himself is now saying he buckled under the pressure of Hormuz,鈥� noted Haviv Rettig Gur, a conservative Israeli analyst, on social media. 鈥淚t鈥檚 as bad as it could possibly be. He鈥檚 saying aloud that Iran can have anything it wants because America can鈥檛 afford the staring contest.鈥�

Yet it was better to 鈥渞ecognize strategic realities late than never at all,鈥� wrote Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, on social media.

鈥淏efore events spiraled completely out of control, the U.S. administration stepped back from maximalist objectives and returned to a more measured and realistic approach,鈥� added Mr. Citrinowicz, who served as the head of the Iran branch of Israel Defense Intelligence. 鈥淭he emerging policy reflects an important shift, from attempting to solve every aspect of the Iran problem through force.鈥�

Not everyone in Iran sees the new ceasefire deal as a success, however, and that includes some lawmakers. One group of Islamic Republic hard-liners rejects the idea of engaging in negotiations with the U.S. as illegitimate, and they have been denouncing the Iranian officials leading the talks with Washington.

Other analysts note that this interim deal looks very much like earlier offers presented to Iran by the U.S., raising questions about the necessity of resorting to military force in late February, or last summer, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran for 12 straight days.

鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 criticize the MoU because it contains unreasonable concessions, we should be frustrated that the MoU contains very logical inducements and that the Trump administration was poised to offer,鈥� wrote Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based economic think tank, in a post on X.

鈥淚n other words, the wars were completely idiotic because the parameters of a viable diplomatic agreement between the U.S. and Iran were already put forward,鈥� with regional input, wrote Mr. Batmanghelidj.

鈥淚ran was inclined to accept the deal, but instead it got attacked.鈥�