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A US-backed Israel-Syria deal seems close. Why Israel has lingering concerns.

An official warming of ties and cooperation is on the horizon for Israelis and Syrians after only ever knowing one another as bitter foes.

But the evolving connection is a complicated one 鈥� pushed aggressively by Washington while still questioned by some in Israel.

Despite reports that Israeli and Syrian representatives might soon meet face to face, possibly in Paris, to finalize a security and cooperation agreement, getting them there is a tricky dance.

Most notably, Israelis are wary that President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Al Qaeda-linked jihadist who took power with the sudden fall of the Assad regime nearly 14 months ago, might not truly have made the pragmatic transformation his supporters claim.

Compounding the mistrust, government forces and Arab militias aligned with Damascus have attacked both Kurds and Druze communities in the north and south of the country in the name of national unity. Israel has historic ties with and sympathies to the minority groups, who seek continued autonomy within Syria.

Washington is hoping Syria鈥檚 rebel-turned-president pivots his country away from Russian and Iranian influence and instead boosts its ties with Turkey and Israel, analysts say. Mr. al-Sharaa was in Moscow on Wednesday, his second visit in four months, to discuss the future of Russian bases in Syria with President Vladimir Putin.

The United States is deeply invested in this Israel-Syria cooperation working, says Eyal Zisser, a Syria expert and a professor of Middle East history at Tel Aviv University. The Syrian government is anxious to sign an agreement that will help secure stability on its southwestern border, Professor Zisser says. This would stop the Israeli airstrikes against Iranian-linked groups and their weaponry. By contrast, he says, 鈥淚srael is more cautious ... more skeptical.鈥�

Ties to Kurds and Druze

A security deal would be a major victory for America鈥檚 strategic interests in the Middle East, as well as good cover to pull 1,000 U.S. troops from Syria, who until now had been deployed to support Kurdish-led forces fighting the Islamic State.

Syria鈥檚 Kurdish minority is under intense pressure by Mr. al-Sharaa to give up their arms and become part of a united Syria. He has set out new ceasefire terms for the Kurds to integrate their Syrian Democratic Forces and civilian institutions into the Syrian state 鈥� terms the Kurds see as giving up their autonomy. Israel has long supported the Kurds, seeing them as strategic, fellow non-Arab allies against Iran and the Islamic State.

Israel has an even stronger commitment to Syria鈥檚 Druze. Israel鈥檚 own Druze community is seen as integral and loyal, 鈥渂lood brothers鈥� who serve alongside Jewish Israelis in the army. Israel鈥檚 rescue service recently sent five decommissioned ambulances to Druze villages in southern Syria in solidarity with that community, which is also holding out for autonomous status within the new Syria.

Israel intervened militarily in July to defend Druze militias in the southern Syrian province of Sweida from deadly clashes with Bedouin tribes and government forces.

And though Israel stayed on the sidelines when Mr. al-Sharaa deployed his forces against the Kurds in the north, it should not be expected to do so if the same happens to the Druze, says Ron Ben-Yishai, a columnist for the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper and a veteran war correspondent.

鈥淭he Kurds are our allies, but the alliance with the Kurds is sort of a mutual interest,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e have the same enemies, so we help each other, but we are not obliged to save them.鈥�

The Druze are a different matter, he says.

Suspicion of al-Sharaa鈥檚 intentions

Nevertheless, 鈥渞educing hostility and reaching a security agreement could pave the way for further, deeper, and broader cooperation鈥� between Israel and Syria, even if it takes more time to get to such a rapprochement, says Amal Hayek, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a Tel Aviv think tank.

A secure northern border with Syria is essential for an Israel still traumatized by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack along its southern border with Gaza.

But Mr. Hayek cautions that a security deal might not be imminent, 鈥済iven the realities on the ground.鈥� Some in Israel鈥檚 leadership and security establishment are struggling with deeply ingrained suspicion of Mr. al-Sharaa鈥檚 neighborly intentions, he says, and wonder whether they should back Syria鈥檚 minorities instead in a bid to counter the new leader鈥檚 growing power.

鈥淲ithin Israel鈥檚 security establishment,鈥� he says, there are those 鈥渨ho prefer Syria remaining divided, with the regime preoccupied by internal strife.鈥�

For his part, Mr. al-Sharaa wants to ensure 鈥渞elations are conducted between the two states rather than between Israel and armed non-state actors inside Syria,鈥� Mr. Hayek says. 鈥淎 hostile Israel would mean Syria would probably continue to suffer from internal instability.鈥�

A security arrangement would likely require Israel to abandon the buffer zone in Syria that the army occupied after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

As a first step toward this security agreement, on , Israel and Syria agreed to set up a communication mechanism under U.S. supervision to coordinate intelligence, security, commercial opportunities, and diplomacy. It is intended to manage disputes and avoid misunderstandings.

The first agreement reached between Israel and Syria鈥檚 new leadership will be significant, says Professor Zisser. 鈥淚t鈥檚 the beginning. That鈥檚 how we start,鈥� he says.

In addition to seizing the buffer zone after the Assad regime鈥檚 fall, Israel destroyed a good portion of Syria鈥檚 military inventory to prevent it from falling into rebel hands. Israel also occupies the Golan Heights, territory it captured in the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed.

Erdo臒an and Trump

Mr. Ben-Yishai, the Yedioth Ahronoth columnist, notes that Mr. al-Sharaa does not yet have full control of all the players he has recruited to help run Syria. 鈥淚t is a gathering of jihadist militias, some of them ex-ISIS, most of them ex-Al Qaeda鈥� who continue to see minorities as 鈥渋nfidels.鈥�

Also fueling Israeli skepticism: Mr. al-Shaara鈥檚 main supporter is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, a perennial thorn in Israel鈥檚 side, who is seeking greater influence in Syria.

Yet U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 backing of Mr. al-Sharaa leaves Israel, already treading lightly with the White House over the Gaza war ceasefire, with limited room to maneuver in the Syrian arena.

Einav Halabi, an Israeli Druze reporter for Yedioth Ahronoth, says meanwhile that a rapprochement between Israel and Syria could be a 鈥渨in-win鈥� for all sides, as Israel will make sure to protect the rights of the Druze minority in Syria as part of any deal it strikes with Mr. al-Sharaa.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 think Israel will abandon the Druze to an unknown fate,鈥� says Ms. Halabi. It is in Israel鈥檚 interest, she says, to keep the Druze as a trustworthy ally along its 鈥渄angerous and wide northern border.鈥�

In the end, it is the Trump White House that will determine the outcome in Syria, says the INSS鈥檚 Mr. Hayek.

鈥淚t will be the position of the Trump administration that prevails and forces a political settlement on the parties,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut I think that all the parties involved want to settle the matter politically, because any nonpolitical solution will lead to violence that will hurt everyone.鈥�

Special correspondent Dina Kraft contributed to this report from Washington.