Why Europe鈥檚 far-right parties are losing steam
Protesters rally during an anti-government demonstration in Ljubljana, Slovenia, June 25, 2021. Several thousand people rallied against Slovenia's right-wing Prime Minister Janez Jan拧a, reflecting mounting political pressure weeks before the country takes over the European Union's rotating presidency.
AP
London
On a map of Europe, you could easily overlook Slovenia. Tucked in among Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Croatia, it鈥檚 roughly the size of New Jersey. But the country is worth watching these days, and not just for its Alpine beauty.
It鈥檚 because of rising opposition to Janez Jan拧a, the fulsome Donald Trump admirer who is prime minister. And the shifting public mood in Slovenia reflects broader head winds now buffeting right-wing populists elsewhere in Europe 鈥� the self-styled 鈥渋lliberal democrats鈥� ruling Hungary and Poland, and the main far-right standard-bearers in Germany and France.
It鈥檚 too early to say if the trend will last. That may well depend on whether more centrist politicians manage to reconnect with the voters who have fueled the rise of Europe鈥檚 ultranationalist, anti-immigrant, anti-minority populists in recent years.
Why We Wrote This
The political fortunes of European extreme right parties appear to be on the wane. Can more centrist politicians seize the initiative by reconnecting with disaffected voters?
But the political weather does seem to be changing for two main reasons 鈥� one local and one global.
On the domestic front, COVID-19 has reshaped the political landscape. It has drawn voters鈥� attention away from the populists鈥� hot-button attacks on immigration or minority groups, and shifted their focus onto how well their governments have dealt with the pandemic. Voters have also become increasingly aware of everyday policy issues spotlighted by the pandemic such as family security, health, and jobs.
One result: unexpected setbacks for Europe鈥檚 most prominent far-right opposition groups, the Alternative f眉r Deutschland in Germany and Marine Le Pen鈥檚 Rassemblement Nationale in France. In early June, the AfD finished a distant second to retiring Chancellor Angela Merkel鈥檚 party in a state election in the group鈥檚 east German political heartland. It was a disappointing result for the AfD in its last electoral test before September鈥檚 national election.
A post-election poll found most voters were less interested in the AfD鈥檚 call for stricter immigration laws than in bread-and-butter economic issues and jobs.
In French regional elections last Sunday, Ms. Le Pen鈥檚 RN failed to capture a single council, despite polls suggesting it might win as many as five. Reading the long-term significance of that is tricky, since fewer than one-third of voters bothered to cast a ballot, but Ms. Le Pen proved unsuccessful in appealing to her normally enthusiastic base.
At the global geopolitical level, Europe鈥檚 populists have lost two key international allies 鈥� former U.S. President Trump and more recently, long-serving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In Mr. Trump, they had a political soulmate in the White House. But Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 departure carried an even more dispiriting message, especially for the ruling East European populists: He was ousted by an alliance of parties across the political spectrum.
Others are following that example. In Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 Fidesz Party has long benefited from a divided opposition, six parties have now banded together to try to unseat him in next spring鈥檚 parliamentary elections.
Poland鈥檚 ruling Law and Justice Party is not due to face a national election until 2023. But with its poll numbers eroding, it changed tack last year to champion traditionally more left-of-center priorities like higher tax rates for the wealthy.
Still, it鈥檚 Slovenian leader Jan拧a聽whose fate provides the most dramatic sign of the new political atmosphere in Europe, and it was on full display this past weekend in the capital, Ljubljana.
Outside the parliament building, the government celebrated the 30th anniversary of Slovenia鈥檚 independence from Yugoslavia, and its ascension this week to the rotating six-month presidency of the European Union.聽
But a few streets away, thousands of protesters were staging the latest in a series of rallies that began last year.
The pandemic has been one spur. But what seems to be animating the demonstrators most is the angry, divisive nature of Mr. Jan拧a鈥檚 rule 鈥� conveyed largely via Twitter 鈥� and his moves to limit media criticism.
It was Mr. Jan拧a聽who responded to Mr. Trump鈥檚 premature declaration of victory last Nov. 6 by hailing his 鈥渞e-election,鈥� and he later echoed Mr. Trump鈥檚 accusations of fraud.
Before the U.S. election, he had been looking forward to his stint in the EU chair as a stage for a triumphant piece of political theater, with Mr. Trump and his Slovenian-born wife, Melania, as leading players at a U.S.鈥揈U summit in Brussels.
That鈥檚 obviously no longer going to happen. And one recent local poll suggested that his government鈥檚 popularity is plummeting, with just 30% of respondents voicing support, and 66% wanting it replaced in next year鈥檚 elections.
Mr. Jan拧a鈥檚 immediate political prospects do not look bright. But the longer-term picture in Slovenia and elsewhere in Europe will probably not depend on Mr. Jan拧a聽and his ilk. Rather it is likely to hinge on their centrist rivals, and whether they can make a sufficiently compelling case for a less angry, less confrontational, and more inclusive brand of leadership.