Jobs are up. Will employment stay a major election focus?
June's job reports showed growth that outstripped predictions 鈥� good news after a disappointing May 鈥� so will concerns about employment continue to dominate the presidential election?
Job seekers fill out applications during the 11th annual Skid Row Career Fair at the Los Angeles Mission in Los Angeles in 2012.
David McNew/Reuters/File
From Bernie Sanders鈥檚 call for a $15 minimum wage to Donald Trump鈥檚 bashing of NAFTA, the employment landscape has dominated this year's presidential election. A strong jobs report is unlikely to shift the tone, say experts.
"No聽politician wants to sit out there and say, 'Things are really good,' when people are saying, 'Things are really bad,' " says Donald Grimes, senior research associate at the聽Institute for Research on Labor, Employment and the Economy at the University of Michigan.
But in fact, the numbers are looking up.
罢丑别听聽released Friday found that job growth in June saw the largest gain since October 2015, with the addition of 287,000 jobs 鈥� a huge leap from what was projected. Unemployment remains under 5 percent, despite a slight rise that some experts suggest is an artifact of how unemployment is calculated. (People not looking for work aren't counted as "unemployed," so this uptick could reflect an increase in optimism, as聽more people re-enter the job search.)
But despite a growing economy, the presidential candidates are painting a bleak picture.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no question people are not happy, and I don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 any question that the data actually reflects what鈥檚 happening to the economy,鈥� says Dr. Grimes,聽referring to the positive jobs report. 鈥淭he question is, what is the dissonance?鈥�
Some of the answers to that question may be found in the nuances of the report itself, which have led some observers to call the unemployment rate misleading in that it doesn鈥檛 include the number of Americans who have not looked for work within the last 27 weeks, or take into account people who are underemployed or have little job security or benefits due to temp and other non-salaried jobs.
鈥淲hat we don鈥檛 know from sheer number of jobs created is what are these jobs 鈥� are they $18 an hour jobs with health benefits, or are they $9 or $10 an hour jobs with no benefits?鈥� says Gary Nordlinger, a professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. He adds that underemployment is another issue, with college graduates taking temp work or 鈥渃obbling together a couple part-time jobs just to get by.鈥�
Benefits and job security are another piece of the puzzle, and the number of people who lost their jobs or finished temporary positions rose by 203,000 to 3.8 million, according to the report. Temporary contract positions often come without benefits or security, adding more stress to workers.
The socioeconomics of job loss has played a key roll in how voter alliances have been formed, and experts say that a key part of Mr. Trump鈥檚 appeal 鈥� even in states like Pennsylvania that don鈥檛 usually swing Republican 鈥� is linked to his promises about restoring America鈥檚 greatness, which many see as a return to more-abundant employment opportunities.
And while manufacturing outsourcing and changes in energy sources have negatively impacted large swaths of the American population (though manufacturing is much stronger than most Americans realize), income inequality has driven most economic growth into the pockets of the wealthiest Americans.
And while Grimes points to 聽by Emmanuel Saez of聽the University of California鈥揃erkeley that suggests that the income gap between the ultra rich and the very poor hasn鈥檛 widened in 15 years, he says that the income gap may be widening between the professional echelon of the upper middle class and the core middle 50 percent of the middle class.
In addition, he suggests, 鈥済rowing inequality on a 鈥� may be more significant than across individual income groups, as property values and wages grow for on the coasts but not in the middle of the country.聽
And while the , people also can't access credit or refinance as freely as they could before the recession triggered banking reforms, Grimes notes, so even people making more money than in the past can be feeling crunched if they want to spend a bit outside their means.
鈥淭he people who are losing out to the global economy in the US, they can find Trump very attractive and there are millions of them,鈥� says Mr. Nordlinger.
These are people, he says, 鈥渨ho were brought up by their parents and teachers who said, 鈥業f you work hard and play by the rules things are going to turn out okay,鈥� and they have worked hard and payed by the rules and they have been hurt by globalization."