Is Mitt Romney the Nevada front-runner? Yes, but . . .
The expectation is that Mitt Romney will win Saturday's Nevada caucuses handily. But where there are high expectations, can disappointment be far behind?
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney greets the Fisher family backstage before a campaign rally in Elko, Nevada, on Friday.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Mitt Romney is the heavy favorite to win Saturday鈥檚 Nevada caucuses, in case you hadn鈥檛 noticed. The most recent Bling State 鈥� excuse me, Silver State 鈥� polls have Mr. Romney far ahead.
A released Friday has Newt Gingrich eating Romney鈥檚 desert dust, for example. Romney gets the nod of 50 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers, according to PPP. Mr. Gingrich comes in second at only 25 percent. Ron Paul is third at 15 percent and Rick Santorum fourth at 8 percent.
鈥淭he bad news for Gingrich isn鈥檛 just that he鈥檚 headed for a distant second-place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41 percent holding a favorable opinion of him to 49 percent with a negative one,鈥� writes PPP analyst Tom Jenson. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels.鈥�
It doesn鈥檛 look good for the former speaker, does it? New York Times puts the chances of Romney winning Nevada at 100 percent.
But there are several caveats we should mention. There haven鈥檛 been many recent statewide polls of Nevada, so the data sample here is small. Plus, the vote in caucus states is notoriously hard to predict. Who will show up? Who will stick around if the speeches are boring? Who will bolt for home when the nachos run out?
Slate political blogger that in 2008, final polls predicted that Mr. Paul would finish fourth with 7.3 percent of the vote. He actually finished second with 13.7 percent of the vote. Clearly Paul voters are hardened against lack of snacks.
Should Romney be worried? Well, not really. But now that he鈥檚 supposed to win a blowout, reporters might treat anything less as slippage. You know how devious we journalists are 鈥� always playing an expectations game with rules we control by ourselves.
鈥淚f this winds up being at all close, [Romney] may have some explaining to do,鈥� writes the Friday on the paper鈥檚 political blog The Fix.
The biggest danger for Gingrich is that he won鈥檛 even finish second. A third or even fourth-place showing might make it much tougher for Newt to slog through until Southern states vote in March鈥檚 Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is going all-in to try and displace Gingrich as the anti-Romney in Nevada. He鈥檚 released a brutal radio ad, for instance, that mocks Gingrich鈥檚 proposed US colony on the moon.
鈥淕ingrich鈥檚 idea is fiscal insanity, and another reason why true conservatives are uniting around Rick Santorum,鈥� says .
Then there is Paul. Nevada is a test case of the libertarian鈥檚 caucus-first strategy, in which he focuses on states where organization and enthusiasm count for a lot. Nevada鈥檚 28 delegates will be allocated proportionally and the caucus results are binding, so if Paul supporters can stack the house in a few counties their guy could do better than expected.
Paul鈥檚 made a play for the Nevada vote by releasing a that among other things proposes that tip income be tax-free. That might play well in a state where (according to the Paul campaign) 20 percent of workers have jobs that involve tip money.