New Ron Paul attack ad: Will it slow Newt Gingrich's momentum?
If the new Ron Paul attack ad helps him make further inroads against Newt Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire, Paul could throw the GOP presidential race wide open, some experts say.
Republican presidential candidates Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas speak during a Republican presidential debate at Oakland University in Auburn Hills, Mich., last month.
Paul Sancya/AP/File
Ron Paul has released aimed at Newt Gingrich. It鈥檚 called 鈥淪elling Access,鈥� and it depicts the former Speaker of the House as a typical Washington insider/influence peddler who profited from his time in government.
The ad depicts a young woman touch-screening through various clips and graphs of Gingrich history. It brings up his accumulation of personal wealth, the $300,000 he had to pay for ethics violations while speaker, the $1.8 million he received from the quasi-governmental mortgage giant Freddie Mac, and so forth. It鈥檚 quite slick, really. All of Paul鈥檚 ads now are 鈥� his ad campaign has the quality of a front-runner, not a fringe candidate. Who鈥檚 putting this stuff together?
A GOP ad man named Jon Downs, that鈥檚 who. Downs is a hardened pro, a veteran of George W. Bush鈥檚 victorious 2000 campaign. The Washington Post today and his efforts for his Texas libertarian client. It notes that some of Downs鈥檚 colleagues from the Bush days 鈥渞olled their eyes鈥� when they found out who he鈥檚 now working for.
The real question, though, is whether Congressman Paul鈥檚 broadsides at Mr. Gingrich will have any effect. If polls are any guide, they haven鈥檛 so far 鈥� Newt just goes up and up in national surveys. Today he鈥檚 got a whopping 12 point lead over Mitt Romney in RealClearPolitics鈥� .
It鈥檚 possible they could begin to wear away some Gingrich support, however, as they reinforce the charge that Mitt Romney is also now leveling at Newt 鈥� that he has made money from his political connections. And Paul is going after Gingrich with a vengeance. It鈥檚 not just the ads 鈥� he鈥檚 saying tough stuff about the GOP鈥檚 new front-runner, as well.
For instance, on 鈥�Meet the Press鈥� Sunday, Paul said it was 鈥渁n immoral thing鈥� for Gingrich to take Freddie Mac鈥檚 money.
Paul himself has also started to rise a bit in national polls in recent days. More interestingly, he鈥檚 now at 16 percent in the crucial early caucus state of Iowa. That puts him third, just behind Mr. Romney, who鈥檚 got 18 percent of Iowa voters at the moment.
With his big campaign war chest, his dedicated core supporters, and his hard-hitting ad campaign, Paul is now poised to be a big factor in the early stages of actual voting, notes The Wall Street Journal鈥檚 veteran .
鈥淎 strong Paul performance in Iowa would go a long way toward determining not just the outcome of the Jan. 3 caucuses there, but the path of the crucial phase of the race that immediately follows Iowa,鈥� writes Mr. Seib.
Why? Because if Paul surges into second place, he would make Iowa鈥檚 outcome murky, denying Gingrich the momentum of a big victory. That would be good for Romney, according to Seib, because Romney hasn鈥檛 made that much of an effort in Iowa, and needs to blunt Gingrich鈥檚 charge into the next state to vote, New Hampshire.
Paul also polls well in New Hampshire, adds New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver. So if he does well in Iowa, then builds on that with a good New Hampshire showing, he could muddy the waters for both Gingrich and Romney.
Maybe 鈥� just maybe 鈥� this would provide an opening for Jon Huntsman Jr. to make serious gains, . In that scenario, Mr. Huntsman could claim that he had supplanted Romney as the safe, electable GOP choice.