Ron Paul vs. Donald Trump: Who's got a better chance of being president?
Donald Trump told the CPAC gathering last week that Rep. Ron Paul had zero chance of being elected president. Paul hit back Monday. Who wins the presidential tale of the tape?
Rep. Ron Paul (R) of Texas speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington Friday.
Alex Brandon/AP
Ron Paul versus Donald Trump 鈥� it鈥檚 the hottest feud going among possible GOP presidential candidates, now that Rick Santorum has forgiven Sarah Palin for calling him a 鈥渒nuckle-dragging Neanderthal.鈥�
The Donald kicked the whole thing off, if you haven鈥檛 heard. He told the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference last week that while he liked Mr. Paul personally, the Texas congressman had a 鈥渮ero鈥� chance of getting elected president.
Folks in the audience booed. Paul won the CPAC straw poll anyway.
Then Monday Paul hit back. On MSNBC he pointed out that people said he wouldn鈥檛 win his House seat, either 鈥� and he鈥檚 been elected 11 times.
鈥淗ow many times has Donald Trump been elected? Does he have, really, the right to go and criticize others and say they鈥檙e [unelectable]?鈥� said Paul.
Well, Paul has kind of a point there, in the sense that all credit belongs to the man whose hair is in the arena and all. That means if you haven鈥檛 actually slogged through a campaign, shaking hands with babies and kissing supermodels and so on, then you shouldn鈥檛 take the stage at a political gathering and criticize somebody else鈥檚 effort.
And, according to some statistical measures, Trump is wrong. Paul does not have a zero percent chance of getting elected president. He has a 2 percent chance. That鈥檚 the same chance that Vice President Joe Biden has of getting elected president, we might add.
Where does this come from? It comes from the numbers on , an online trading exchange that functions as a kind of Dow Jones Index of presidential chances, among other things. As of Feb. 14, Ron Paul鈥檚 chances of winning in 2012 are 2 percent, while President Obama鈥檚 are 59.7 percent.
Donald Trump isn鈥檛 listed on Intrade, so you can鈥檛 measure his numbers against Paul鈥檚 directly. But the 鈥溾�� website of respected University of Virginia political expert Larry Sabato lists all the potential GOP candidates, split into tiers 鈥� and the bad news here for Paul and Trump is that neither of them do very well. Mr. Sabato puts them both in the fourth tier, his lowest category. They鈥檙e behind people like just-elected Florida Senator Marco Rubio, little-known Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) of Minnesota, and moderate Jon Huntsman, who just resigned his post as Obama鈥檚 ambassador to China.
Paul鈥檚 negatives are that he has views on some subjects that are outside the GOP mainstream, that he鈥檚 not young, and that he has run and lost before, according to Sabato. Trump鈥檚 negatives are that he鈥檚 had no experience in public office and has had a colorful life that the media will gleefully explore. Plus, his talk about maybe running is 鈥減erceived as a stunt,鈥� according to Sabato.
But Paul gets some measure of revenge here. He鈥檚 rated as the top of the Sabato鈥檚 fourth tier. Trump? He鈥檚 dead last.
We鈥檇 make a 鈥測ou鈥檙e fired鈥� joke here, but that would be cheap.