Speaking Politics phrase of the week: '14-year-rule'
A political truism suggests that politicians become president within 14 years of their first election. But that doesn't quite work this presidential campaign.
President Obama passed the 14-year-rule with a decade to spare.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
14-Year-Rule: A political truism 鈥� also known as the 鈥渇reshness test鈥� 鈥� indicating that politicians have, in essence, a 14-year 鈥渟ell-by date鈥� between the time they win their first major elective office and either the presidency or vice presidency.听
Former National Journal columnist Jonathan Rauch came up with the concept in 2003, though he a presidential speechwriter named John McConnell.听
鈥淚t is well known that to be elected president, you pretty much have to have been a governor or a U.S. senator,鈥� wrote Mr. Rauch, who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. 鈥淲hat McConnell had figured out was this: No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Surprised, I scoured the history books and found that the rule works astonishingly well going back to the early 20th century, when the modern era of presidential electioneering began.鈥�
He said it has shown that in previous elections, 鈥渢he public wants seasoned fillies, but not old mares.鈥�
Barack Obama was elected to the Senate in 2004 and became president four听years later. The timeline for his predecessors:听
- George W. Bush: 6 years
- Bill Clinton: 14
- George H. W. Bush: 14
- Ronald Reagan: 14
- Jimmy Carter: 6
- Richard Nixon: 6
- John F. Kennedy: 14
The only exception was Lyndon Johnson, who took 23 years to get from his first House victory to the vice presidency. Generals such as Dwight Eisenhower 鈥渁nd other famous personages can go straight to the top,鈥� Rauch 听
The question now, of course, is whether it applies to Hillary Clinton, who was first elected to the Senate 16 years ago, and Donald Trump, who鈥檚 never been elected to anything.听
The Weekly Standard鈥檚 Jeffrey H. Anderson that the rule was 鈥渂ad news鈥� for Mrs. Clinton. Meanwhile, Rauch in 2012 that the Republican Party has become more inclined to nominate less-seasoned candidates than it had in the past.听
鈥淭hat accords with what we know about the Republicans鈥� shift toward anti-government populism,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey value experience less; indeed, experience, for many tea party types, is a liability. The change attracts newcomers who, in the Reagan-Ford-Dole era, would have been rejected as neophytes.鈥�
More recently, Rauch in an Atlantic magazine cover story, 鈥淗ow American Politics Went Insane,鈥� that Mr. Trump, along Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 鈥渁re demonstrating a new principle: The political parties no longer have either intelligible boundaries or enforceable norms, and, as a result, renegade political behavior pays.鈥澨�
Chuck McCutcheon writes his 鈥淪peaking Politics鈥� blog exclusively for Politics Voices.
Interested in decoding what candidates are saying? Chuck McCutcheon and David Mark鈥檚 latest book, 鈥淒oubletalk: The Language, Code, and Jargon of a Presidential Election,鈥� is now out.