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Rick Santorum: Can he catch fire again?

Rick Santorum finished just behind Romney in 2012, but that doesn't make him the GOP's heir apparent in 2016. This time, he faces more competition for the social conservative and Evangelical vote.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R) of Pennsylvania, who ran a surprisingly strong, albeit ultimately doomed, campaign for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, is聽, and it鈥檚 apparent that he will be announcing at that time that he鈥檚 entering the race:

Rick Santorum will announce whether he will make a run for president later this month at an event in his hometown of Butler, Pennsylvania, on May 27.

鈥淟ook, it was a great campaign last time,鈥� he told Fox News鈥� Greta Van Susteren on Wednesday night, referencing his 34-vote victory in the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus. 鈥淲e were clearly the underdog and we are starting out as looking at this race and we would be in the same position. And so we are very comfortable there.鈥�

Santorum said he is looking at a venue in the town approximately 35 miles north of Pittsburgh 鈥渢o sort of talk about what it was like growing up there and where America needs to go in the future.鈥�

The former Pennsylvania senator made his 2012 announcement in Somerset, Pennsylvania 鈥� an hour and a half east of Pittsburgh and near where his grandfather worked as a coal miner.

While Santorum did not specifically say that he is entering the race,聽聽that he will indeed be entering the race on May 27. Santorum already has the bare bones of聽聽up and running, although the only thing it is doing right now is accepting donations and RSVP鈥檚 for the May 27 announcement, so that鈥檚 a pretty clear indication of what his intentions actually are. Additionally, as I have said before when candidates have made these announcement that they are going to be making an announcement, such as when聽听补苍诲听聽did it in April, it鈥檚 rather obvious that when a potential candidate schedules an event such as this that they are intending to enter whatever race it is they might be considering. Additionally, it hasn鈥檛 been exactly been a secret that the former senator has been considering another White House bid. As early as December of last year, it was apparent that Santorum was gearing up for another presidential bid. Since then, he has reportedly been spending time in Iowa, where he pulled off the surprise victory that briefly catapulted him to political stardom before he was unable to follow up that win with anything impressive in South Carolina, Nevada, or Florida, as well as other early primary states.

Ordinarily I suppose, Santorum would be considered a serious contender for the nomination. He did, after all, finish second to Mitt Romney in both the number of total votes won and the number of That becomes a somewhat less impressive accomplishment, though, once you realize that聽Romney won roughly 10,000,000 votes and 37 states while Santorum received less than 4,000,000 votes and came in first in just 11 states while gaining second place in 15 others and third place in the final 17 contests. and that Newt Gingrich was only 1.2 million votes behind Santorum in popular votes.聽In addition to the fact that Santorum鈥檚 claim to be the Republican 鈥渘ext in line鈥� is rather dubious given the results in 2012, the biggest impediment to his claim on that status lies in the fact that his appeal is largely limited to Evangelicals and social conservatives. Unlike previous Republican 鈥渉eirs apparent,鈥� there is no evidence that the Pennsylvania senator would have much crossover appeal among other wings of the party the way candidates like Reagan, Bush (both 41 and 43), McCain, and Romney did when they ran. Given that, a Santorum 2016 campaign is likely to look very much like his 2012 campaign did, and be just as unsuccessful.

The polls seem to confirm the fact that Santorum is unlikely to be able to capitalize on his 2012 success. Nationally,聽聽puts him at the back of the pack along with potential but as yet undeclared candidates such as Rick Perry, John Kaisch, and Bobby Jindal. In Iowa, where Santorum spent the better part of a year campaigning in an effort that brought him his most significant victory in 2012,聽, at the back of the pack with a number of candidates that likely have no chance at all of breaking through. In New Hampshire, where聽, the former Pennsylvania senator is at the bottom of the pack with聽which is not surprising considering that the Granite State has few of the Evangelical voters that Santorum appeals to. South Carolina was more fertile territory for Santorum last time around, since he聽, but even there is again polling at the back of the pack with聽. Finally, while聽, he is apparently drawing so little notice in the Sunshine State now that聽

What all these polls show, of course, is that whatever momentum Rick Santorum may have had in 2012, it has not followed through to the 2016 campaign cycle. In no small part, this is due to the fact of his limited appeal. Unlike the 2012 race, this time around Santorum will be competing for the evangelical and social conservative vote with a number of candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson and, to some extent, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. In that kind of environment, it鈥檚 hard for a candidate like Santorum to make a mark, especially when he鈥檚 running against people who have been far more active in electoral politics over the past three years than he has. So, while anything鈥檚 possible, I wouldn鈥檛 expect a repeat of Santorum鈥檚 2012 performance. But, hey, at least the sweater vest industry will benefit.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.