Telling the truth on Ebola and the simple act of voting
We tell people that 'your vote can make a difference,' when the chance of one vote tipping a presidential race is, say, 1 in 60 million. There are other reasons to vote.
Volunteers assist a voter for curbside voting in the parking lot at Jamestown City Hall in Jamestown, N.C., on Friday. If a person is physically unable to enter a polling place, curbside voting is provided at all of the early voting sites.
Laura Greene/The Enterprise/AP
In pleading for calm about Ebola, public officials are unintentionally subverting a familiar slogan of voter turnout campaigns.
That connection may sound odd, but read on.
聽Americans that the chances 鈥渙f widespread Ebola outbreaks in this country are very, very low.鈥� Experts agree.聽聽puts the risk of catching Ebola in the United States at 1 in 13.3 million. In light of such figures,聽, 鈥淕o about your business.鈥� The idea is that if the probability of an event is so microscopically small, then we should not let it drive our day-to-day activity.
Fine, but ponder how Cuomo鈥檚 advice applies to election turnout. When encouraging voting, political campaigns and good-government groups typically tell people, 鈥�!鈥澛� This phrase suggests that there is a real chance that a single vote could tip the election from candidate to the other.
Why use such appeals?聽 Voting entails costs in the form of time and trouble. People have to register, learn about their choices on the ballot, and then either go to the voting booth or secure a mail ballot. If a citizen expects to be the聽聽鈥� and thus the kingmaker 鈥� then he or she will surely think that the benefits of voting outweigh the costs.
But there are more than 140 million registered voters. In presidential elections,聽, the average American voter has a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. In other words, you are more likely to catch Ebola than to cast the deciding vote for president.聽
For other elections, the odds are greater but still minuscule.聽聽between 1898 through 1992 found that only one 鈥� a 1910 congressional race 鈥� had turned on a single vote.
So the customary turnout slogan is basically dishonest: for all practical purposes, your vote will聽苍辞迟听make a difference. And if it doesn鈥檛 make sense to alter your routines for fear of getting Ebola, then it doesn鈥檛 make sense to vote in hopes of deciding an election.
Even knowing the numbers, some people get great satisfaction from the act of casting a ballot. For them, voting is worthwhile because they enjoy expressing themselves in an election. For most people, however, voting is a chore.聽,聽which it is.聽 Duty is about doing things not because they bring us any individual benefit, but because they鈥檙e the right thing to do.
An honest turnout appeal would say, 鈥淣o, your single vote won鈥檛 change the outcome, but as a citizen you have an obligation to participate in our democracy.鈥� Rousing? No. Mature, yes.
When I hear the 鈥測our vote can make a difference鈥� line, I think of the聽. (鈥淚f you keep making that face, it will freeze that way forever!鈥�)聽
If we want people to vote, we should stop treating them as children.
Jack Pitney writes his Looking for Trouble blog exclusively for the Monitor.