海角大神

Kasich should drop out now! (Except maybe he shouldn't.)

Some Republican leaders press John Kasich to exit the presidential race, to allow a two-man contest between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. But is it a good idea? 

Suddenly all these Republican elite people are yelling at John Kasich to get out of the presidential race. Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush. Lindsey Graham. Them to聽 Governor Kasich: 鈥淵ou鈥檙e in the way! Clear the lane for Ted Cruz! Otherwise Donald Trump will win the nomination! And if that happens it might be your fault.鈥�

OK that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but that鈥檚 probably how the Ohio governor sees the rhetoric coming his way. Mr. Romney and rest of the #NeverTrump crowd appear to have finally coalesced around one candidate, and it鈥檚 Texas Senator Cruz. They may be closer to Kasich ideologically; they may dislike and even distrust the independent-minded Cruz; some may even harbor their own secret nomination ambitions. But Cruz is closest to Trump in delegates and has a slim chance of catching the billionaire real estate mogul under certain perfect conditions. And one of these conditions is a head-to-head Cruz versus Trump match-up.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e someone who is uneasy with the front-runner, right now there鈥檚 really only one candidate, if you鈥檙e just looking at the numbers objectively. Ted Cruz is the only one who鈥檚 got a chance other than Donald Trump to win the nomination,鈥� Scott Walker, a presidential derby drop-out, on Wednesday. 鈥淪tatistically my friend Gov. Kasich cannot.鈥�

This may be correct. It鈥檚 logical to assume that the non-Trump vote will boost one candidate more than two, so the person now in third place should exit. Kasich is not going to approach Trump in delegates. His only shot at the nomination is via a contested GOP convention.

And yet....

It鈥檚 easy to sympathize with Kasich鈥檚 position. He鈥檚 worked his whole life for this moment, climbing politics rung by arduous rung, and at the moment he is as close to the top as he is ever going to get, the summit so near he can see it, he鈥檚 supposed to just stop?

Here鈥檚 a summary of what Kasich might argue if he sat down with Romney for lunch:

First off, the GOP establishment is asking me to pay the price for its own previous mistakes. The disparate alliance of lawmakers, donors, lobbyists, and media figures that make up the Republican elite had months to choose a candidate to rally around. They dithered. Now they鈥檙e desperate. Time for Kasich to go!

Second, Cruz is no more likely to catch Trump than I am. Practically speaking, the Texas senator鈥檚 chance of winning the nomination outright is zero. His chances of overtaking Trump in delegates are close to zero as well. He is a stand-in for GOP hopes of a contested convention, at which Trump will somehow be defeated even though he鈥檒l enter with a delegate plurality.

And third, if you鈥檙e looking for someone to rally around at a chaotic open convention, why not me? I鈥檓 talking about hugs and bringing people together. Right now the other two guys are engaged in an ugly spat about their wives. Sure, I barely campaigned in the South, and I tried to block Cruz in Utah. But now the electoral map is moving to North and East to places where I do better.

Did you catch Thursday鈥檚 Franklin & Marshall College , by the way? I鈥檓 virtually tied with Trump, 30 to 33 percent.

I had 3 percent in that same poll in January.

鈥淚 drop out, Donald Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. I don鈥檛 believe that Senator Cruz can come to the East and win,鈥� said Kasich during an (actual) appearance on Wednesday.

In the end, Kasich might bow to the pressure, particularly if he underperforms in the Wisconsin primary next week. But it鈥檚 not inconceivable that he鈥檒l stay in all the way to the end, unmoved by what he might judge the self-serving arguments of others.

After all, if the Republican convention is contested, nobody really knows what could happen. It鈥檚 unlikely that delegates would turn to Kasich 鈥� but it鈥檚 been an election cycle when the unlikely has become the probable. So why not give it a shot?