海角大神

Are debate rules (unfairly) hurting Carly Fiorina?

Carly Fiorina is polling among the top 10 Republican presidential candidates, yet she might not be invited to the next top-tier debate. In some ways, however, that could work to her advantage.

Is Carly Fiorina being treated fairly by the Republican Party and CNN? She certainly doesn鈥檛 think she is. And she may have a point.

The issue is whether the former Hewlett-Packard chief will be allowed into the main event at the next GOP primary debate, scheduled for Sept. 16 in California.

Remember the first debate, held Aug. 6? Ms. Fiorina wasn鈥檛 in the top 10 candidates, according to the criteria used by host Fox News. She was relegated to the early-evening undercard for lower-tier contenders. But she did well, according to the pundit consensus 鈥� she was crisp and forceful, in contrast to others on the stage. Subsequently, she鈥檚 risen in the polls.

In the , Fiorina is now drawing about 5 percent support. That鈥檚 good enough for seventh place in the field. Since CNN鈥檚 the host of the September shootout, she鈥檚 a shoo-in, right? The main debate鈥檚 all about the top 10 poll performers.

Except there鈥檚 a flaw in the ointment for Fiorina: CNN鈥檚 previously-announced rules don鈥檛 make it easy for candidates to move between the major and minor debate leagues. CNN will base its top 10 on an average of major polls dating back to July 16, well before the first debate.

Under those criteria, Fiorina doesn鈥檛 make the cut. So she鈥檚 arguing that the rules are ridiculous.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a little bit like saying if you have a lousy game in the preseason, and you play great all season long and you make it to the playoff, you don鈥檛 get to play in the playoffs because of the preseason game,鈥� said Fiorina during an Iowa campaign appearance on Thursday. 鈥淚t kind of doesn鈥檛 seem fair to me.鈥�

Fiorina鈥檚 contacted CNN and the Republican National Committee to complain, of course. Their response has been, in so many words, 鈥渢oo bad.鈥� The criteria came out four months ago. They鈥檙e designed to lessen the influence of outlier poll results. Everyone has to live by the rules.

Tough? Maybe, but maybe not. Remember, the goal for lower-tier candidates is not to get into the big debate, per se. It鈥檚 to get noticed. Fiorina may actually get as much or more press coverage by being barred from the main debate, as she would if she were admitted.

She鈥檒l get lots of stories such as this one, for instance, that mention the dispute. They鈥檒l help build Fiorina鈥檚 name recognition. Right now only a little better than half of Republican voters know enough about her to form an opinion.

And she鈥檒l likely be a center of attraction at the undercard. It鈥檚 true that the earlier debate isn鈥檛 likely to draw nearly the ratings of the later one 鈥� Fox鈥檚 August 6 event broke ratings records for a cable nonsports show. But the main event will include Donald Trump, who鈥檚 at the eye of a media hurricane wherever he goes. Better to be the star on a smaller stage, perhaps.

That鈥檚 what happened on August 6, .

鈥淚t鈥檚 worth nothing that Fiorina鈥檚 placement in the second-tier 5:00 p.m. debate obviously didn鈥檛 hurt her,鈥� Mr. Newport wrote earlier this month. 鈥淥ne might argue that it may have helped her if the smaller, less imposing group on stage with her made it easier for her to stand out.鈥�

A deluge of media coverage after that event helped drive Fiorina鈥檚 name recognition up by 14 percentage points in a week, noted Newport. That鈥檚 a lot.

Of course, Mr. Trump probably has a name recognition level of 200 percent, if that鈥檚 possible. A generation yet unborn has probably already heard about who he is and formed an opinion about his chances. But Fiorina has to start somewhere. Slow and steady may win the race 鈥� or perhaps a vice president nomination nod, or cabinet appointment.